Tennis Betting Advice - January 2022
Australian Open Day 6 - cover both bases at 50/1...
Friday 21st January 2022
Australian Open daily email service – Day 6
When you back outsiders, longshots, underdogs. You’re looking for your team or player to outstrip their price. To do better than expected. To give you an entertaining run for your money…
And when it comes to backing young tennis players specifically, as we tend to do here at Ones to Watch. Those big prices can come with some extra value built in. As a newcomer can blossom before your eyes, literally becoming a Grand Slam level competitor, over the course of the tournament. Becoming a better bet than their original price suggested, almost overnight.
We’ve seen it in recent times with the likes of Sofia Kenin, Bianca Andreescu, Iga Swiatek… and I could go on. Right now in Australia, our two early-bird, ante-post women’s picks have already outperformed their odds…
100/1 Clara Tauson is now 33/1 in the Outright Winner market. The 19-year-old plays in the 3rd round at Midnight tonight.
100/1 Amanda Anisimova is through to the Last 16, after saving two match points and fighting back to produce a deserved victory over reigning Australian Open champion, Naomi Osaka. The 20-year-old American is now a general 16/1 shot to go all the way.
No financial rewards are handed out for that. But we’ve got two very exciting, improving players on our side – and in the book at huge prices, too.
Our book of Each Way outsiders now looks like this:
Women:
Amanda Anisimova 100/1
Clara Tauson 100/1
Victoria Azarenka 33/1
Men:
Jannik Sinner 25/1
Denis Shapovalov 80/1
Tauson v Collins tonight – cover both bases…
There’s one move that I want to make today, with the final set of 3rd round matches taking place over the night and into Saturday morning, UK time. Clara Tauson v Danielle Collins is priced as a 50-50 match-up. The victor will have more than a puncher’s chance in the next round, too, against either Elise Mertens or Shuai Zhang.
With that in mind – and with our previous history with Collins – I want to make sure we cover both bases this evening. And for me, that means adding the 28-year-old American to the Outright book. With Skybet going an eye-catching 66/1, and 50/1 & 40/1 available elsewhere.
A quick recap on Danielle Collins. Last season she lifted two WTA titles. An important breakthrough moment for the former US college player. Signalling that Collins, crucially now describing herself as ‘pain free’ after an endometriosis diagnosis and surgery, was now finally ready to fulfil the potential that her big-hitting game and feisty competitive spirit had always threatened…
Indeed, in years gone by I’ve flagged up Collins as a Ones to Watch pick at big tournaments. Not least last season, where I backed the American at 50/1, and 100/1+, on three occasions at the Grand Slams.
Long-time readers will know that we backed Sofia Kenin more than a handful of times in various events, before she made it all gold by winning the Australian Open at 50/1.
I’m a huge fan of Tauson, who we already have in the book at the best possible prices. But I respect Collins and the week-one form that she’s shown too much to write her off against the teenager here. Danielle’s best Major run came here in Melbourne, reaching the semi finals as a rank outsider at the Australian Open 2019. If she’s ever going to deliver at a ‘Slam, it’s going to be on the hard courts.
With 40/1+ widely available, I’m happy to take Collins today, not wanting to miss out if this is the tournament where the 28-year-old smashes through to win big. And knowing that we’ll guarantee ourselves another woman in the Last 16...
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Ones to Watch picks:
Australian Open 2022 – Women’s
Outright Winner – Each Way:
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places
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Play starts from Midnight, UK time.
I’ll be back by 5pm tomorrow with your Day 7 email.
P.S
If you’d like to get in touch during the tournament, you can email me at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson