Tennis Betting Advice - January 2022
Saturday 22nd January 2022
Australian Open daily email service – Day 7
It was a night for comebacks last night. Five of the eight women’s matches went the distance to three sets…
We made the right move by grabbing the 40/1+ tournament prices for Danielle Collins. The American came back from a set and 4-2 down to outlast our 100/1 Ones to Watch teenager, Clara Tauson, 4-6, 6-4, 7-5. As Collins herself said after the match – we’ll be seeing a lot more of Tauson in the future.
Alize Cornet celebrated her 32nd birthday with an epic comeback victory. Recovering from a set and double-break down, to pull off a near three-hour 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 win over Tamara Zidansek.
Elsewhere, veteran Kaia Kanepi blasted her way back from a set behind against Australian underdog Maddison Inglis, to win 2-6, 6-2, 6-0.
And – for the third time in a row this week – Aryna Sabalenka came from a set to love down to win in three. This time beating Marketa Vondrousova, 4-6, 6-3, 6-1.
500/1 for a wild night…
The 4th round starts tonight. And looking at the line-ups, I can foresee some more three-set drama in the women’s draw. With quarter-final places up for grabs, expect plenty of tension, and a few twists & turns…
There’s a case to be made for all four of the women’s Day 7 matches to go a deciding set:
Madison Keys v Paula Badosa
First career meeting between these two. Keys is a former US Open runner-up. Badosa is the favourite, now a Top 10 player, and looking to build on last season’s Indian Wells triumph on hard courts. The Spaniard also has the edge in terms of mental strength in my opinion – but it could take Paula a while to break Keys down here. Set Betting prediction: Badosa 2-1
Barbora Krejcikova v Victoria Azarenka
The head-to-head is 1-0 to two-time Australian Open champ Azarenka (2020, indoor hard courts). That WTA match ended in a 2-1 win for the Belarusian. Czech opponent Krejcikova has since become a Grand Slam champion herself, and knows how to dig in for a three-set battle. Indeed, in the last round, Barbora came back to win from a set and a break down against the ever dangerous-but-unreliable Jelena Ostapenko. Our 33/1 tournament pick Azarenka has been in superb form so far, and the reliability of her attacking play could be the key here. Our player is the favourite, despite age and ranking being against her. Krejcikova has played a lot of tennis already this month, and is also competing in the Doubles. Set Betting prediction: Azarenka 2-1
Jessica Pegula v Maria Sakkari
Two players that both featured in our big-odds Grand Slam picks last season. One of them will get the chance to compete in another Major quarter final next week. Sakkari is the favourite, and looks to have that extra bit of grit needed when the scoreboard gets really pressured. I like Pegula’s game a lot, but I’ve seen her throw away a few big leads in matches in recent months. Set Betting prediction: Sakkari 2-1
Ashleigh Barty v Amanda Anisimova
I’m also compelled to put forward the Day 7 box office match as a three-set contender. World no.1 Barty against our 100/1 pre-tournament pick Anisimova is due on court as the opening match in the Night Session on the Rod Laver Arena court (8am, UK time)…
Barty is the clear favourite, no doubt in that. But the Australian has suffered from the jitters before in big matches here in Melbourne – where the unspoken storyline is that only a home Grand Slam win will really cement her all-time legendary status. So far, Ash is yet to reach the final here. If the pressure kicks in and Barty goes passive, then 20-year-old Anisimova has all the power and weapons to push her back.
Amanda knocked out reigning champ Naomi Osaka in the last round, 2-1. How’s that for a confidence boost. Barty and Anisimova have only played once before, and it was a big one. The Aussie prevailed in the French Open 2019 semi finals, coming from a set down to beat the then-teenager, 2-1. It would be an upset – but I can see the youngster turning the tables on that score-line here. And another way to look at it is, if Anisimova is going to pull off the shock and knock out the tournament favourite, it’ll most likely require the full three sets. Set Betting prediction: Anisimova 2-1
I’m being brave and aggressive in my picks here, backing both of our Ones to Watch Outright Winner picks to come through (Azarenka and Anisimova). And nailing my colours to the mast with a Set score prediction for all four women’s matches on the Sunday schedule.
If you choose to follow me in, there are some potentially wild prices on offer for those Set Betting outcomes…
All four 2-1 scores in an acca comes out at 500/1. I’d say stranger things have happened. The Anisimova 2-1 bet is the biggest price of the bunch, and at odds of 7/1+, that gets the nod as an outsider selection on its own merit. Badosa, Azarenka, and Sakkari are all around 3/1 each to win 2-1.
If you’d like some staking guidance for these, I’m going like this:
Our Outright book…
Going into the 4th round, our book of Each Way outsiders looks like this:
Women:
Amanda Anisimova 100/1 – now 16/1 in general
Victoria Azarenka 33/1 – now 12/1 in general
Danielle Collins 40/1+ - now 25/1 in general
Men:
Jannik Sinner 25/1 – now 16/1 in general
Denis Shapovalov 80/1 – 80/1 still available in places, 66/1 general
That Shapovalov price hold is due to the fact that he’s still got some big names in his path. The 22-year-old Canadian shot-maker is a 4/1 underdog to beat Alexander Zverev tonight. And Rafael Nadal is also in this section of the draw.
----------------------------------------------------
Ones to Watch picks:
Australian Open 2022 – Women’s
Set Betting:
See above for more info and prices, including staking.
----------------------------------------------------
Play starts from Midnight, UK time.
I’ll be back by 5pm tomorrow with your Day 8 email.
P.S
If you’d like to get in touch during the tournament, you can email me at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson