Tennis Betting Advice - January 2022
Australian Open Day 11 - Aces high for the world no.1...
Wednesday 26th January 2022
Australian Open daily email service – Day 11
With our big-odds Outright Winner picks we always say, it only takes one…
Danielle Collins is carrying our Ones to Watch hopes into the semi finals. Backed at top prices of 66/1, 50/1 or 40/1 after the 2nd round. The 28-year-old American is now 8/1 for the title.
Collins coped well with the occasion yesterday, beating 32-year-old quarter-final debutant Alize Cornet in straight sets, 7-5, 6-1.
Danielle is through to a second career semi final here at the Australian Open. To reach a maiden Grand Slam final, she’ll have to beat our old friend, Iga Swiatek…
A 100/1 teenage French Open winner in 2020, Swiatek – still just 20 years of age – is once again showing she has the head for the big stage. The Pole has now made the second week (Last 16 or better) in each of the last five Majors. No woman on the tour can match that streak right now.
It’s no surprise that the bookmakers have Iga as the favourite to win Thursday’s semi final (10am+, UK time). Swiatek is 4/6 (1.67) to beat Collins. Our player is the underdog at 6/5 (2.2).
With Collins in the Outright book at 40/1+ Each Way, place terms of 1/2 the odds mean we effectively have 20/1+ about Danielle beating the world no.9. That’s a pretty good position to be in.
Collins also delivered on the Most Double Faults yesterday. The tally ended 4-0 to our player. On the hunt for a slice of value once again, this time I’m drawn to the serving stats and markets for the first women’s semi final, on court from 8.30am UK time…
Ashleigh Barty v Madison Keys
World no.1 Barty is the 2/9 (1.22) favourite to win this match, and also odds-on to win the whole thing, at 1/2 (1.5) in general. One market where the Australian star is a slight outsider in tomorrow’s betting though, is for the Most Aces…
Keys and Barty are the top two top servers in the women's event in terms of the Ace counts. And when we drill down a little to see the Aces-per-Set averages, there’s really not much in it:
Barty Aces = 30
Sets played = 10
Average Aces per Set = 3
Keys Aces = 35
Sets played = 11
Average Aces per Set = 3.18
The official WTA Tour website states that last season, Barty had the higher average ace count:
Barty = 325 Aces from 49 matches
Average = 6.63 per match
Keys = 119 Aces from 26 matches
Average = 4.58 per match
There’s a case to be made for the pressure getting to both players in this semi final. For Barty, being the home hope and the favourite. While Keys has previous for ‘freezing’ on the very biggest stage. So far in this tournament though, neither woman has blinked.
Overall, I rate Barty as the more consistent performer. If Keys brings the heat, then she can blitz any number of markets here. But for me, Barty’s head-down attitude makes her a steady bet as the underdog for the Most Aces. At the prices, the world no.1 is my pick.
----------------------------------------------------
Ones to Watch picks:
Australian Open 2022 – Women’s
Ashleigh Barty v Madison Keys
*Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook void bets if it’s a tie.
----------------------------------------------------
I’ll be back by 5pm tomorrow with your Day 12 email.
P.S
If you’d like to get in touch during the tournament, you can email me at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson