Tennis Betting Advice - January 2022

Australian Open Day 12 - two extremes at 59/1...

Thursday 27th January 2022

Australian Open daily email service – Day 12

Danielle Collins rose to the occasion in fine style this morning. The 28-year-old pummelled the match favourite Iga Swiatek, dominating their semi final to record an impressive 6-4, 6-1 victory.

Collins moves on to her first Grand Slam final. We’re now assured of an Each Way payout (or better) from our Outright Winner bet on the American. In the book at 66/1, 50/1 or 40/1 last week.

Waiting in the final on Saturday will be the world no.1 and favourite, Australia’s own Ashleigh Barty. Ash was sublime again in her semi final, dismissing a lacklustre Madison Keys in straight sets, 6-1, 6-3.

  • Barty landed our Most Aces bet as the underdog there. With a 5-1 ace tally going nicely against the pre-match quotes of 7/5 (2.4) and Evens+ (2.0+) about the top seed

Day 12 is men’s semi-final day…

Here’s the line-up:

Matteo Berrettini v Rafael Nadal

Friday 3.30am UK time

Match Winner odds: Berrettini 13/8 (2.63) – Nadal 8/15 (1.53)

Rankings: Berrettini #7 – Nadal #5

Head-to-Head: Nadal 1-0 (US Open 2019 semi final, Nadal 3-0)

Stefanos Tsitsipas v Daniil Medvedev

Friday 8.30am UK time

Match Winner odds: Tsitsipas 21/10 (3.1) – Medvedev 2/5 (1.4)

Rankings: Tsitsipas #4 – Medvedev #2

Head-to-Head: Medvedev 6-2 (Medvedev 5-1 on hard courts)

I’ve got two contradictory betting angles here…

Firstly, for my main bet. A straight-up Match Winner double on Nadal & Medvedev. Taking the cream-rises-to-the-top stance, the two favourites are justified here.

Nadal defies age – and often fitness issues, too – time and time again. Grand Slam title number 21 is very much within the 35-year-old’s sights here. Medvedev has proved himself to be the steeliest of the Next Gen, becoming the first of his alumni to break through and actually win a Grand Slam title. The Russian has a dominant hard-court & head-to-head record v Tsitsipas. The double pays just over 11/10 (2.1+).

On the flipside, at Ones to Watch we never like to write off the underdogs…

Arguing in favour of the upset here, you could point to Nadal’s apparent ‘on the ropes’ performances in set four against Denis Shapovalov in the quarters – where some tablets and a lengthy end-of-set break off court seemed to revive the Spaniard for a fifth-set resurgence. Berrettini also had a five-setter, yet the 25-year-old has 10 years on Rafa. And few could argue that the Italian isn’t getting closer to a Grand Slam title. Matteo reached the US Open semi finals in 2019, and was runner-up at Wimbledon last summer.

Tsitsipas started the tournament with doubts hanging over his performance levels, having had an elbow injury at the end of 2021. However, the Greek youngster has put together a third Australian Open semi-final run in four years, and looked immaculate in the last round, not even giving up a single break point against the highly-rated Jannik Sinner. Stefanos has also been edging ever nearer to the dream goal of a first Major trophy. Tsitsipas was runner-up at the French Open last season, having reached the semis the year before. He’s now a regular last-four contender at the Grand Slams.

To put it simply, if we’re going to see upsets in these men’s semi finals, then I reckon it’s going to require the full distance with a herculean five-set effort. That being the case, I’m playing a small-stake double on the Set Betting scores, with odds of 13/2 (7.5) and 7/1 (8.0) for the two epic-battle underdog outcomes, Berrettini 3-2 and Tsitsipas 3-2. The double pays 59/1.

My staking on these:

1.5 points – Nadal and Medvedev to win @ 11/10+ (2.1+)

0.5 pt – Berrettini 3-2 and Tsitsipas 3-2 @ 59/1 (60.0)


Ones to Watch picks:

Australian Open 2022 – Men’s

Matteo Berrettini v Rafael Nadal

Stefanos Tsitsipas v Daniil Medvedev

  • Match Winner – Double: Nadal & Medvedev @ 2.14 Bet365, William Hill, 2.11 Skybet, BetVictor, Betway
  • Set Betting – Double: Berrettini 3-2 & Tsitsipas 3-2 @ 59/1 William Hill, Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet


I’ll be back by 5pm tomorrow with your Day 13 email.

If you’d like to get in touch during the tournament, you can email me at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch