Australian Open Day 13 - a classic underdog situation...

Friday 28th January 2022

Australian Open daily email service – Day 13

I’ll be skipping down the stairs on Saturday morning to watch the women’s final. Whether or not I then end up dancing around the living room, and all the way to the local pub, all depends on what transpires between breakfast and lunchtime…

Women’s Final – Barty v Collins

It’s a classic underdog situation:

Ashleigh Barty v Danielle Collins = the world no.1 against the player ranked no.30.

The Australian Open top seed against the 27th seed.

The home favourite against the feisty American visitor.

The head-to-head is 3-1 to Barty. The Aussie star is played two, won two in Grand Slam finals. Collins is making her debut in a Major final.

Barty has glided serenely through the tournament, winning six out of six matches without dropping a set. Collins has had to come from a set down to win on two occasions.

Ash is ranked 2nd in the competition for Most Aces. Danielle is 2nd for Most Double Faults.

Barty is a strong odds-on favourite, at 1/5 (1.2) to win the match and take the trophy. Collins is a 4/1 (5.0) outsider.

And yet. And yet…

There’s an angle to be found when making a case for the upset:

Collins won their last meeting, a year ago, in a WTA event in Adelaide, Australia. And their previous encounter before that was also in Adelaide, with Barty only sneaking it 7-6 in a final-set tiebreak.

What if Barty gets nervous, looking to make history in front of her expectant home crowd? It’s happened before. In the 2020 Australian Open semi finals, Barty wilted in the face of another loud American playing the tennis of her life, Sofia Kenin.

Collins won’t be turning up here just to make up the numbers. She plays to win, every time. Make no mistake about it, the 28-year-old will bring her game-face attitude here.

The way I look at it, I’m very pleased to have Collins in the book at big Each Way prices. After the 2nd round, we backed Danielle in the Outright Winner market at 66/1, 50/1 or 40/1, with place terms of 1/2 the odds for reaching the final.

So, a half-the-odds payout is assured. And for the Outright part of our bet, we have 40/1+ about a 4/1 shot winning on the day. That’s a great Ones to Watch position.

You might wish to have a substantial wager on Barty at 1/5. The Australian is the favourite for good reason, playing some spellbindingly good tennis over the last fortnight and more.

But I’m sticking to my true underdog spirit, more than happy to sit on the big ticket here. And know we’ve got one hell of a price running for us in the final, about a player that simply will not give up without a fight…

The final starts from 8.30am UK time, live on Eurosport. Enjoy the tennis.

P.S
If you’d like to get in touch, you can email me at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk

I’ll be back tomorrow with your Day 14 email, looking ahead to the Men’s Final.

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch