Tennis Betting Advice - January 2023

Australian Open: Day 7 – Name the Finalists, Part II…

Saturday 21st January 2023

Good afternoon, and welcome to Day 7 of your Australian Open 2023 daily service. Play starts from 1.30am UK time…

Now everyone’s talking about Linda…

Great stuff from Linda Fruhvirtova last night.

The Czech teenager says that her fighting spirit is her best attribute. And that was on full display in the 17-year-old’s latest breakthrough win, taking out former French Open runner-up Marketa Vondrousova in three sets.

Serving at 1-3 down in the final set, and facing a break point at 30-40, Linda turned it around… holding for 2-3, and reeling off five games in a row to take the decider, 6-3.

The headlines and hype are now inevitably going to come. Along with her younger sister, Brenda, Linda has been touted as a future star for many years already. The Czech sisters were reportedly signed to their first management contract before the age of 10.

In terms of the women’s Outright Winner betting, we can be very happy to have got on Linda Fruhvirtova early, at the very best prices. Topping out at 600/1 and 400/1 for the Australian Open a couple of weeks back, pre-tournament. And widely available pretty much up all week up to yesterday at 100/1+.

That’s a great Each Way bet to have in the book about an exciting young player: exactly the goal of our speculative but informed big-odds Ones to Watch picks. Linda is now trading at 50/1 at best with Unibet, and as short as 30/1 with Betway.

  • On the Win Only front, I know from my inbox that a few of you are on Fruhvirtova at fancy prices on the Betfair Exchange – with tradeable positions now in your hands I’m sure (Linda is now down to 50.0 to Back, as I write)

Of course, no prizes are handed out for reaching the 4th round. But getting a teenager through to the Last 16 of a Grand Slam for the first time in their career is a big deal in its own right.

And if you’re new to Ones to Watch this month, you at the very least will be getting to taste how it feels to have a brilliant new player on your side – at massive odds – before the BBC & co start telling the world how good she is.

Hubert’s big chance…

In the men’s event, we have another 100/1 pick in the running. Hubert Hurkacz plays in the 4th round tonight, with a place in the quarter finals at stake.

The bookies make Sebastian Korda the match favourite to beat our man. That’s understandable after the 22-year-old American wiped the floor with two-time Australian Open finalist Daniil Medvedev in the last round.

But our 25-year-old Polish charge is the higher-ranked player going into tonight’s contest. And Hurkacz beat Korda in their only previous meeting, which was the ATP Delray Beach final in 2021 (a match in which we were actually on Seb).

A lot of it will come down to nerve – and serve.

Hurkacz v Korda is scheduled as the second singles match on Rod Laver Arena tonight, after Iga Swiatek v Elena Rybakina from 1.30am UK time. That means we’re looking at 3am at the earliest for Hubi’s match. One for the night owls then. Or, more realistically perhaps, one to watch when you wake up on Sunday morning, with match replays available on the Eurosport/ Discovery+ platforms.

  • From 100/1 and 80/1 when we backed him Each Way on Day 1 of the tournament, Hubert Hurkacz is now 33/1 in general, and as short as 20/1 with Bet365

Two out of 8 in contention – at big prices…

So, we are halfway through our quest to get a player to the final. The tantalising possibility is there with both Fruhvirtova and Hurkacz in the book as 100/1 shots.

The markets don’t pay out on hope though. And the flipside of our aggressive, big-odds approach of course is that here at Ones to Watch we have more losing bets than winning ones. The key is price.

On average I tend to back around 10 players during a Grand Slam, across the men’s & women’s events in total. Sometimes more, sometimes less. It’s not an exact science. But the point is, at a massive price, ‘just one’ big run to a final can set us up and sort us out a whole season. As was the case last year, with Taylor Fritz taking care of the profit & loss column, winning ATP Indian Wells for us at 100/1 – 66/1.

Here at the Australian Open 2023, the very first Grand Slam of the new season. I’ve put up eight names so far, and we have two still standing as of today, the middle Saturday in Melbourne – the aforementioned Linda F and Hubi H.

I’ve been hitting the bar more often than finding the net with my match picks so far. The latest example being 20-year-old American newcomer Ben Shelton winning the 2nd Set of his match on a tiebreak this morning, when I’d put him up for the 7-6 score at odds of 4/1+ in the more widely available 1st Set market. Again – we’re playing a long game…

Name the Finalists, Part II…

Across a two-week Major like the Aussie Open, one of the long games we’re playing is our Name the Finalists combo in the women’s event.

With Jessica Pegula & Aryna Sabalenka backed at top prices of 30/1, 28/1 & 25/1 on Tuesday. That final is now priced as a 14/1 chance at best (Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Ladbrokes & Coral), and 12/1 and 10/1 elsewhere.

Both women have been in scintillating form so far, and through to the Last 16. Pegula and Sabalenka are both on seven-match winning streaks this month – each winning seven matches in a row in straight sets, 2-0. Pegula is next in action, taking on the surprise 100/1+ French Open 2021 champion, Barbora Krejcikova. That one is scheduled for 6am+ Sunday.

Today there’s one price in the men’s Name the Finalists market I feel I might end up kicking myself over if we miss…

Indeed, I almost sent out an update with this pick in it late last night, in case Novak Djokovic got knocked out by Grigor Dimitrov this morning. He didn’t, and the nine-time Aussie Open champ and 2023 tournament favourite won in straight sets, 3-0. But if you watched that match, especially the 1st set, then you’ll have seen that Novak’s left thigh remains very much taped-up, and was causing him some problems. To be honest, Dimitrov had a bit of a mental fail – not for the first time in his career – and didn’t take his chances.

One young man that is very hungry for success and looks like being much less prone to big-match mental fragility is 19-year-old Holger Rune. The Danish teenager delivered for us at big odds when winning the Paris Masters last November (33/1 & 28/1), a breakout moment that catapulted this exciting and extremely driven young player into the world’s Top 10. He beat Djokovic in the final, and it felt like a career-defining moment. Big things are expected from now on.

On the other side of the draw, the name to add to our men’s Name the Finalists combo is Stefanos Tsitsipas. With the likes of Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev out, Stef looks the class act from the established top-level names left in the top of the field.

The 24-year-old Greek is ranked no.4 in the world, and has made the semi finals two years running here at the Australian Open – and three times out of four.

Greek players always get a lot of crowd support here in Melbourne. Tsitsipas likes to put on a show, and can feed off that atmosphere.

As with Dominic Thiem a couple of years ago, Stefanos has been edging closer and closer to winning a maiden Grand Slam. Along with three semi finals here in Australia since 2019, he was also a semi-finalist at the French Open in 2020 – and then went one better in 2021, reaching the final and finishing runner-up to Djokovic, having been two sets up. His time could come here this fortnight.

TSITSIPAS & RUNE are my men’s Name the Finalists selection today at 16/1. If Tsitsipas beats Jannik Sinner on Sunday morning (8am+), as he did here in Melbourne in the quarter finals twelve months ago. And if Djokovic comes a cropper over the next few days. This could be the new-name-on-the-trophy line-up for the championship match…

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Ones to Watch picks:

Australian Open 2023

Men’s – Name the Finalists:

  • Stefanos Tsitsipas & Holger Rune @ 16/1 Bet365, William Hill, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor

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I’ll be back by 5pm Sunday with your Day 8 email.

P.S
You can email me during the tournament at:

tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch