Australian Open: Day 9 - 6/1 for Quarter Final thrillers...

Monday 23rd January 2023

Good afternoon, and welcome to Day 9 of your Australian Open 2023 daily service. Play starts from 1.30am UK time…

The big-odds quest continues…

I don’t know if you were able to catch any of the tennis this morning, or check-in on the live scores. But around 8am I thought we might be ‘on’ for a 40/1 double from yesterday’s men’s 3-2 Set Betting picks…

In the end, we had to settle for just the one 5/1 payout from Ben Shelton:

Ben Shelton beat John Jeffrey Wolf 3-2
Tommy Paul beat Roberto Bautista-Agut 3-1

I like the chances of some more five-set battles this week, as we very much enter the business end of the tournament – with the quarter finals starting tonight. See below for my two men’s selections for Day 9.

Dealing in small margins…

The tennis scoring system is a set-up for drama. When your player saves match point and goes on to win, it feels glorious. When it goes the other way, it really stings…

One men’s 16/1 Name the Finalists pick Holger Rune had two match points against Andrey Rublev this morning. The Danish teenager had also built up a 5-2 lead in the final set of what turned out to be a go-the-distance epic. But back came Rublev, with the Russian also clawing back a 3-7 points deficit in the deciding match tie-break.

Hard to take when it happens, but Rune owes us little after winning the Paris Masters for us at fancy odds last November. Holger is the real deal, and can make us money again in tournaments to come.

That’s the second time in a few days that one of our picks has gone down in a deciding, final-set ‘match tiebreak.’ With the other being 100/1 shot Hubert Hurkacz’s 7-6 loss in the fifth set at the hands of Sebastian Korda.

• This season, for the first time, matches at all four Grand Slams – across both the men’s & women’s events – will be decided by a match tiebreak if the scores are level at 6-games-all in the final set. A match tiebreak differs to a normal set tiebreak in that this one is the first to 10 points, instead of 7 (you still have to win by 2 points)

Sabalenka powers on…

Teenager Linda Fruhvirtova’s breakthrough Grand Slam run came to an end in the 4th round last night. I stayed up to watch that one, watching the temperature plummet to minus zero outside at 4am, while Fruhvirtova and Donna Vekic slugged it out for three sets in the Melbourne afternoon sun.

Linda took her higher-ranked opponent to a third & final set, which was a valiant effort from the 17-year-old. And while we won’t be popping the champagne to 100/1 glory this time, Linda is most definitely one to watch moving forward.

Vekic edged it in the end. The match stats finished up with the Croatian winning the total points tally by just three points, 80-77. Those numbers suggest that if the Czech teenager hadn’t served 11 double faults, things might have turned out differently.

• Our women’s Name the Finalists combo remains alive & kicking. The bookies now make Jessica Pegula & Aryna Sabalenka a 7/2 (4.5) joint-favourite in this market…

Sabalenka won last night with another convincing 2-0 win. The Belarusian has now won eight matches in a row in straight sets this month, a record shared by America’s Pegula. Both are through to the quarter finals in their respective sides of the draw.

Pegula is first up, taking on Victoria Azarenka tomorrow morning (8am). Sabalenka plays Vekic the day after.

That Pegula & Sabalenka bet is flying the flag for our outright picks, with odds of 30/1, 28/1 and 25/1 taken last week.

Day 9 picks – 5-set thrillers at fancy prices…

The quarter finals start tonight, and while I wouldn’t put you off backing the two favourites in these men’s match to win in the standard Match Winner market – the double pays just over Even Money (2.0+). I’m sticking with my with big-odds stance, with a feeling that Seb Korda and Stef Tsitsipas might have to dig deep to get the job done tonight…

Odds of 4/1+ (5.0+) are widely available for these two 3-2 Set Betting picks – with some standout 6/1 (7.0), 11/2 (6.5) and 5/1 (6.0) prices listed below.

Set Betting picks:

Karen Khachanov v Sebastian Korda – Korda to win 3-2

Match scheduled 3am+

• It was a close match last time these two met, 7-5, 7-6 to Korda in Antwerp in October. Their one previous meeting in a best-of-5-sets match at a Grand Slam saw Khachanov triumph 10-8 in the final set at Wimbledon 2021…

Stefanos Tsitsipas v Jiri Lehecka – Tsitsipas to win 3-2

Match scheduled 9.30am+

• Just one meeting in the book with these two, with Lehecka an upcoming youngster. They met in the best-of-3-sets Rotterdam semi final last season, with Tsitsipas winning 2-1…

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Ones to Watch picks:

Australian Open 2023 – Men’s Quarter Finals

Set Betting:

• Sebastian Korda to win 3-2 v Karen Khachanov – best price @ 6/1 (7.0) Boylesports, 11/2 (6.5) William Hill, 5/1 (6.0) Betfred, Sporting Index Fixed Odds 

• Stefanos Tsitsipas to win 3-2 v Jiri Lehecka – best price @ 6/1 (7.0) Ladbrokes, Coral, Sporting Index Fixed Odds, SpreadEx Sports, 11/2 (6.5) Boylesports, 5/1 (6.0) Bet365, BetVictor, Betfred

• Double: Korda 3-2 & Tsitsipas 3-2 – best price @ 44.5/1 (45.5) Boylesports, 41/1 (42.0) Sporting Index Fixed Odds, 37.5/1 (38.5) Ladbrokes, Coral

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I’ll be back at 5pm Tuesday with your Day 10 email.

P.S
You can email me during the tournament at:

tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch