Tennis Betting Advice - January 2024
Aus Open Day 4: Rollercoaster picks at 72/1...
Tuesday 16th January 2024
Australian Open - Day 4
We’ve got past the 1st Round with all seven of our Ones to Watch picks intact. A feat that’s easier said than done…
Just ask anyone who was on women’s seeds Marketa Vondrousova (7th seed), Liudmila Samsonova (13th), or Veronika Kudermetova (15th) this week. All sent packing in the 1st Round. A trio of upsets with combined Match Winner odds of 50/1.
With the number of competitors in the draws now chopped in half as we head into the 2nd Round tonight & tomorrow. Our seven Each Way outsiders now account for 5.47% of the total 128-player field across the men’s & women’s events, combined.
Our Ones to Watch women in the book here at the Australian Open:
Linda Noskova - best price today 150/1 Skybet, LiveScoreBet, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, 100/1 & 80/1 in general
Qinwen Zheng - now 33/1 LiveScoreBet, 28/1 and 25s in general
Jelena Ostapenko - now 33/1 Betfred, Betway, 888 Sport, LiveScoreBet, 28/1 general
Caroline Wozniacki - now 100/1 Skybet, Boylesports, SpreadEx & Sporting Index, 80/1 general
And for the men:
Ben Shelton - best price today 50/1 Unibet, BetUK & BetMGM, 40/1 & 33/1 general
Holger Rune - now 33/1 Unibet, BetUK & BetMGM, 28/1 & 25/1 general
Sebastian Korda - now 250/1 Skybet, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, 100/1+ general
You can catch up on my write-ups for those players from earlier this week, here (Day 1 email), and here (Day 2).
I feel we’ve got a nice mixture there so far, made up of a few 100/1 shots, and a clutch of lively contenders from the middle of the pack in the region of 28/1 - 50/1.
And it’s still early days…
I’m tracking several players right now. We can’t back them all. But I’ll keep you posted in the days ahead with our next moves in the Outright Winner market.
Match picks…
Last night was a late one, even by my standards. Very late. I almost pulled the all-nighter. Plenty of great tennis on. And 32 more matches to come tonight - and then another 32 the next day…
Here are my picks for Day 4. Play starts at midnight - and that’s when I come to life…
After a winning treble in our first foray into the Match Winner markets, last night’s four-fold hit the bar with three out of four. That means we’re six out of seven for those picks. My selections for tonight’s women’s matches are as follows…
Match Winners: 5-fold @ 3/1:
Caroline Wozniacki to beat Maria Timofeeva
Leylah Fernandez to beat Alycia Parks
Barbora Krejcikova to beat Tamara Korpatsch
Caroline Garcia to beat Magdalena Frech
Elise Mertens to beat Marta Kostyuk
And in the Set Betting market, it’s time for a play on one of the small-stakes, big-odds angles I talked to you about last week (read more here, and here): backing the 2-1 Set Betting score, in anticipation of some rollercoaster women’s matches…
These three match-ups all fit that billing for me. The advice with this one tonight is to split a stake four ways across a Trixie (that’s 3 doubles, and the 70/1+ treble). Eg. 0.25 pt x 4 = 1 pt total stake.
Set Betting - Trixie:
Diane Parry to win 2-1 v Kamilla Rakhimova
The bookies make this a 50-50 pick ‘em, at 10/11 (1.91) each to win the match. Parry has been on my radar since her teens, and the 21-year-old could yet go on to achieve big things. I’m with the slightly younger and higher-ranked player here, but it could well go all the way to three sets. Six of Parry’s last seven matches have gone to that way. So far this year, the Frenchwoman has played four times, all have gone to three sets, and she's won 2-1 in Sets on three out of four occasions.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to win 2-1 v Paula Badosa
Two big ball-strikers here, both on the injury comeback in recent times. The bookies make this match very close, with William Hill going Evens (2.0) for the Spaniard, and 4/5 (1.8) for Pavlyuchenkova. The Russian is further along in her match sharpness than Badosa, and Pavlyuchenkova is my 2-1 Set Betting pick here.
Beatriz Haddad Maia to win 2-1 v Alina Korneeva
Brazilian scrapper Haddad Maia is one of the most physical and athletic women on the tour - and she uses those traits to her advantage, getting embroiled in one epic battle after enough. Beatriz is one of the prime 2-1 Set Betting candidates in the sport. She beat 18-year-old Linda Fruhvirtova by that score in the last round, and can grind down and eventually overpower 16-year-old 2023 Aussie Open Girls’ champion Korneeva here.
Play starts at midnight…
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Ones to Watch picks - Australian Open:
Women’s 2nd Round
Match Winners:
Recommended bookies for Match Winner bets - read more here.
Set Betting:
Set Betting markets available with all major bookmakers.
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You can watch the Australian Open live on Eurosport/ Discovery Plus.
I’ll be back by 5pm tomorrow with your Day 5 email…
Enjoy the tennis…
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone