Tennis Betting Advice - January 2024
Aus Open Day 6: Up for a scrap at 149/1...
Thursday 18th January 2024
Australian Open - Day 6
If you get a chance to watch this morning’s epic encounter between Elena Rybakina and Anna Blinkova - then check it out. Even the most casual of tennis fans would find that one exciting. What a match!
The longest final-set tiebreaker in women’s Grand Slam history, with both players saving multiple match points. Nail-biting stuff - and absolutely enthralling.
From a betting point of view, Blinkova’s 10/1 upset, taking out last year’s runner-up Rybakina. Helps open up the draw very nicely for our 33/1 Each Way pick, Qinwen Zheng. As does the exit of another big-name seed in this part of the draw, Jessica Pegula, at the hands of 5/1 match-day underdog Clara Burel.
The bookies now have our Day 1 pick Qinwen Zheng at 14/1 or shorter for the trophy. The Chinese player will have to sort out her high double-faults count. But when it goes in, the 21-year-old’s serve is doing some serious damage…
After the first two rounds of the women’s tournament, Zheng is ranked 1st for Most Double Faults - but also 3rd for Most Aces.
After yesterday’s essay, it’s time for my analysis & advice for today. Although as I write this afternoon, there’s still playing going on in Melbourne from ‘yesterday,’ at well past 2.30am local time. So much for the scheduling stopping the late-night finishes!
Elina Avanesyan v Marta Kostyuk
As I said the other day, Ukrainian Kostyuk has been playing with fire in her belly for a while now. The passion doesn’t always lead to good results though. You can want something too much. And this stat - as well as her opponent’s impressive performance in the last round - has me very much liking the chances of an upset tonight…
While Marta has been on our Ones to Watch radar for some time. Russia’s Avanesyan caught my eye in 2023, as a low-key fast-improver climbing the rankings - with a smart game, and some clean shot-making. Elina duly got a mention in my new Ones to Watch in 2024 Report.
While 2nd Round victim Maria Sakkari has long struggled to match her high ranking with Grand Slam consistency. Avanesyan still had to go out there and beat the world no.8 - as an 8/1 underdog no less. And she certainly did that. She’s 3/1 for another underdog win tonight.
With Russian women going well in the early rounds at this tournament - Blinkova, Mirra Andreeva, and Maria Timofeeva, all scoring wins over higher-ranked opposition. Avanesyan is just the kind of low-attention player that I like to get behind…
Up for a scrap…
However, the match will likely be a scrap, if Kostyuk has any say in it. She has the power, but can be very hit-and-miss. Including a stack of double faults across the opening couple of rounds (18, the 2nd highest in the tournament).
Three of the young Ukrainian’s last four matches have gone the distance to three sets. As did over half of yesterday’s women’s matches here in Melbourne…
I’m going in again with the big-price 2-1 Set Betting score combinations here:
Avanesyan 2-1 @ 13/2 (7.5).
And in two of tonight’s other women’s matches…
Our three-set friend Beatriz Haddad Maia. And the resurgent Ones to Watch youngster, Amanda Anisimova…
The advice: three singles. And splitting a stake four ways across the Trixie (three doubles & a treble).
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Ones to Watch picks - Australian Open:
Women’s 3rd Round
Set Betting - markets available with all major bookmakers. Prices quoted below all available with Ladbrokes, Coral, and Betfred:
Elina Avanesyan to win 2-1 v Marta Kostyuk @ 13/2
Beatriz Haddad Maia to win 2-1 v Maria Timofeeva @ 3/1
Amanda Anisimova to win 2-1 v Paula Badosa @ 4/1
Trixie. Set Betting: Avanesyan 2-1, Haddad Maia 2-1, Anisimova 2-1 - best odds @ 149/1 the treble
-------------------------------------------------------------------
You can watch the Australian Open live on Eurosport/ Discovery Plus.
Play starts at midnight.
I’ll be back by 5pm tomorrow with your Day 7 email…
Enjoy the tennis…
P.S
In yesterday’s email, I mistakenly said that Poland won the United Cup this month. I meant they got to the final. Apologies for any confusion. The version uploaded to our website was amended immediately.
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone