Tennis Betting Advice - January 2024
Aus Open Day 8: This is why we do it...
Saturday 20th January 2024
Australian Open - Day 8
Did you see Linda Noskova take out world no.1 Iga Swiatek this morning?
A great performance from our teenage Ones to Watch pick.
And a great feeling if you’re on Linda at big prices…
Linda was 9/1 to win the match. And the young Czech was my early-bird selection for the women’s Australian Open 2024…
We first got Noskova in the book at a standout 100/1 last September…
Before going in again in October, when an industry-best 150/1 was dangled…
And on Day 1 of the tournament this time last week, I highlighted odds of 300/1 available with Betfred…
Throughout the week, plenty of 100/1+ has been available.
After Linda’s statement victory over Swiatek, the 19-year-old’s price has been slashed to just 12/1…
As I was saying just yesterday - it only takes one…
They don’t hand out any prizes for reaching the 4th Round…
I’m not counting any chickens. We can’t get too carried away just yet…
But, in terms of a clear and present example of exactly what the Ones to Watch service is all about:
Backing an ‘unknown’ teenager (as the mainstream media would have it)...
Before anyone else…
At the best prices…
Who then goes on to knock out the world no.1 and tournament favourite at a Grand Slam…
Triggering a price cut from 300/1 to 12/1…
Well, that’s what this service is all about.
To get an Each Way payout, we need Noskova to reach the final. She’s still three match wins away from doing that. But it’s an outcome the bookies now have priced at just 9/2 (5.5)...
In comparison, if you’re on the current world no.50 at any of the massive prices available before she beat Swiatek. Then half-the-odds place terms for Linda will smash 9/2 out of the park… 50/1+ if you’re on at 100/1, and so on…
Perhaps you availed yourself this week with some of Bet365’s 80/1 for Noskova in the ‘Reach the Final’ market instead…
Or maybe, you’re a Betfair Exchange backer. And in a brilliant position to trade. Just like Ones to Watch member Charlie, who emailed me today:
We’re going after another upset tonight…
If we take a step back and look at the revised women’s draw and Outright Winner market, overall…
The tournament has reached the middle weekend, and two of the top three are already out (Swiatek, and Elena Rybakina)...
In fact, seven of the top 10 women’s seeds have been sent packing…
That means we’re ‘on’ for yet another wide-open women’s Grand Slam event. Especially in the top half of the draw - where we have both Noskova, and 33/1 Qinwen Zheng (now 9/1) running for us.
In the bottom half, where the 4th Round, Last 16 matches begin tonight. The top two names are still there - reigning Aussie Open champ, Aryna Sabalenka. And US Open winner, Coco Gauff.
We’re looking to get one of those beaten on our terms tonight…
As stated in yesterday’s email, I very much like the resurgent form and underdog chances of Amanda Anisimova.
The 22-year-old American takes on Sabalenka (2am+ Sunday morning, UK time)...
We’re on Anisimova as a Ones to Watch pick at:
A best-price 5/1 for the match upset v Sabalenka (now 4/1)
And 50/1 as an outsider for the title (now 40/1 William Hill, 33/1 general)
Bring it on…
If it was decided on aces…
In the men’s event, where the top 2 big boys, Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz, are very much alive & kicking. We’re on Hubert Hurkacz at 80/1+ (now 66/1 at best)...
Hubi got better as this morning’s match went on - and the world no.9 moves into the Last 16 of the Australian Open for the second year running.
Two of our players are front-runners for the serving awards right now. Here are the latest Aces stats from the official Aus Open website:
35/1 for drama in the men’s tonight…
And finally for today…
I’m taking our big-odds quest to the men’s 4th Round matches. Where a pair of close head-to-head records has me siding with the marginal - but justified - pre-match favourite, to come through via the long route: the 3-2 Set Betting score…
We’ll take 5/1 apiece for Andrey Rublev 3-2 against Alex De Minaur, and Stefanos Tsitsipas 3-2 v Taylor Fritz. With 35/1 for the double…
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Ones to Watch picks - Australian Open:
Set Betting:
Markets available with all major bookmakers. Best prices with Boylesports:
Rublev to win 3-2 v De Minaur @ 5/1
Tsitsipas to win 3-2 v Fritz @ 5/1
Double: Rublev 3-2 and Tsitsipas 3-2 @ 35/1
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You can watch the Australian Open live on Eurosport/ Discovery Plus.
Play starts at 1am.
I’ll be back by 5pm tomorrow with your Day 9 email…
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone