Tennis Betting Advice - January 2024
Aus Open Day 13: Men's Semi Finals...
Thursday 25th January 2024
Australian Open - Day 13
As I was saying the other day, regarding our Each Way outsiders for the tournament - it only takes one…
On that front, we’ve got Qinwen Zheng through to the women’s final - backed at 33/1 on Day 1.
And the same long-term statement applies to our fancy-priced doubles and trebles in the matchday, Set Betting markets…
We have more losers than winners. It’s the nature of my aggressive, against-the-grain approach. But - at the big prices we go for, it only takes one…
Grab the popcorn…
We’ve got a 33/1 underdog to cheer for in the women’s final on Saturday morning.
And you might also want to grab the popcorn (or porridge) for Friday’s men’s semi finals…
These match-ups are two of the highest-quality and most intriguing rivalries in the men’s game right now…
Novak Djokovic v Jannik Sinner - play starts 3.30am
The four-time reigning champ and world no.1 Djokovic, taking on the exciting new young gun Sinner. Novak is looking to land his 11th (!) Australian Open title this week. Jannik is aiming to reach his first Grand Slam final…
The head-to-head is 4-2 to the Serbian winning machine. But since November, 22-year-old world no.4 Sinner has beaten Djokovic, two times out of three.
They’ve met twice before at Majors - both at Wimbledon. Novak won both of those best-of-five-set encounters, but it took him the full five sets to beat the big-hitting youngster in one of those meetings, after Jannik had raced into a 2-0 lead.
If you’re a long-time Ones to Watch follower, you won’t be surprised that I’m going for another 3-2 Djokovic epic here. As I’ve reported several times in recent seasons, Novak does not want to lose to the Next Gen. But he’s been drawn into a fair few five-set battles against the young guns. And this feels like another energy-sapping, 3-2, rip–the-shirt-open, drama-filled fight to me.
Daniil Medvedev v Alexander Zverev - 8.30am+
The theme with these two is ‘no love lost’ - but that’s more a media spin if you ask me. Tennis-wise, it’s two of the top Next Gen names, continuing to knock on the door at the Grand Slams. Medvedev is ahead of Zverev in that department, having banked the US Open in 2021. Sascha Zverev has come very close though, including a runner-up trophy at the US Open 2020, in a five-set classic with Dominic Thiem.
Both of these guys - Medvedev age 27, Zverev 26 - have played in multiple Grand Slam semi finals. They’ll know what this big-stage contest is all about. And with a total of 19 previous career meetings, the Russian and the German know each other’s games well, too…
Overall, that sizeable head-to-head is 12-7 to Daniil, who has also come out on top in their last two clashes. Indeed, as Zverev said after his quarter-final victory this week - Medvedev has been ‘kicking his ass.’
Serve will play a big part in this match though, and in that area, Zverev has been exceptional of late. In the official tournament stats, Alex is ranked 2nd for Most Aces at the Australian Open 2024. While fellow big-server Medvedev flirts with danger more often, with bold second serves - resulting in the no.1 spot for Most Double Faults so far this fortnight.
Zverev is also rated no.1 this tournament for First Serve Return Points Won. Meaning the German right-hander has got his eye in when it comes to taking a quick-thinking swing at an opponent’s first serve.
Sascha has got more tennis in his legs than Daniil in recent days. And while the Russian often has a hangdog look about him, make no mistake: Medvedev loves to dig in, rally, and grind out a win. He’s in for the long haul. I give the edge to the world no.3 here. But with no.6 Zverev pushing this deep…
We could see tiebreaks tonight, in both matches. I’m expecting drama, and potentially a pair of very long, intense encounters.
Once again, my take is for the big-odds approach via the 3-2 Set Betting scores (it only takes one…).
With odds of 4/1+ each appealing for Djokovic 3-2 and Medvedev 3-2. And the double paying a top-price 32/1…
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Ones to Watch picks - Australian Open:
Men’s Semi Finals
SET BETTING - markets available with all major bookmakers
Djokovic to win 3-2 v Sinner @ 5/1 (6.0) Boylesports, 9/2 (5.5) Betway, 4/1 (5.0) general
Medvedev to win 3-2 v Zverev @ 9/2 Boylesports, 4/1 general
DOUBLE: Djokovic 3-2 and Medvedev 3-2 @ 32/1 Boylesports, 28/1 William Hill, 26/1 Betfred, 25/1 Betway, Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM
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You can watch the Australian Open live on Eurosport/ Discovery Plus.
Play starts from 3.30am.
I’ll be back by 5pm tomorrow with your Day 14 email.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone