Tennis Betting Advice - January 2025
Australian Open: Coco and Sascha at 65/1...
Friday 10th January 2025
By their very nature, our big-odds picks are always going to be a mixed bag. So goes the story this week with our pre-tournament Ones to Watch work around the Australian Open…
For example, on the one hand. Marketa Vondrousova went in the book at a top-price 150/1 or 100/1 on Monday. Only to then get injured on court in Adelaide on Wednesday…
We’re still waiting for a proper fitness update on the talented (but, yes, injury-prone) Czech; we might not get one at all - and have to wait and see how she looks in round one in Melbourne, if/ when she plays.
Vondrousova is still in the Aussie Open field as it stands. I saw a comment online that she was seen limping at the Melbourne Park venue. But that’s just conjecture right now.
Since Wednesday’s in-match retirement (where she left the court in tears), Marketa’s price has drifted from around 66/1 back to 100/1 in general, with the likes of Unibet and Betfred going 150/1.
On the other hand, it looks like we got on Madison Keys at the right time on Wednesday…
The big-hitting American has been in high-level form this week, reeling off four match wins to reach the WTA Adelaide final this weekend…
We took the standout 100/1 for the Australian Open. Maddie’s price to win a maiden Grand Slam this coming fortnight is now 50/1 in general, with a couple of firms as short as 33/1 and 25/1 - although Betway are a top-price 66/1 for Keys, as I write.
We’re also on Ons Jabeur for the women’s title at 66/1 - 40/1. After being knocked out in Adelaide in her second match this week, the Tunisian’s Aus Open odds have drifted to more like 66/1 in general, with BetVictor going 70/1 - and Unibet & co (BetUK, BetMGM, LiveScoreBet) now offering a top-price 75/1. I’m not too worried about that price move. The plan for Ons was always to get a few matches under her belt in early January, to get ready for the first Major of the year
In the men’s Australian Open Outright Winner betting, our one ante-post, Each Way selection thus far has been Denis Shapovalov at 100/1+ (and briefly 300/1 with Unibet & co). I flagged-up the talented but unpredictable Canadian back in November, here and here. In today’s market, Shapo’ is trading at 200/1 with several firms including Skybet, William Hill, 888 Sport, Betfred, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral. There’s some 300/1 in the fixed-odds betting at Sporting Index & SpreadEx
Why we play, the way we play…
The reigning champions Down Under are Aryna Sabalenka in the women’s, and Jannik Sinner in the men’s. Those two world no.1’s are the undoubted bosses of the hard-court ‘Slams right now: Sabalenka won both the Australian Open and US Open last season, and Sinner did the same.
This time last year, Sabalenka went off in Melbourne as a 5/1 (6.0) shot, with Sinner at 13/2 (7.5). This time, Aryna is the women’s outright favourite at 5/2 (3.5) to win the title for a third straight year. And Jannik is just 5/4 (2.25) to defend his trophy.
The best price on a win-only double on Sabalenka & Sinner this fortnight comes out at less than 7/1 (sub-8.0). Those are just not the prices for us here at Ones to Watch…
We back appealing outsiders, at attractive Each Way odds…
And we believe that the early bird gets the worm…
Last season, this approach saw us land on nice prices in three of the four Major tournaments:
33/1 Qinwen Zheng was backed at the Australian Open 2024 - reaching a maiden Grand Slam final, and finishing runner-up for a half-the-odds payout. This time, the Chinese star goes off at just 14/1
150/1 Jasmine Paolini was our big one last season - in the book as an early-bird one-to-watch for the French Open 2024, and going on to reach a debut Major final in Paris, landing us a big Each Way return from huge, rank-outsider odds. After an amazing breakthrough year in 2024 (the Italian was also a 66/1 runner-up at Wimbledon, won the WTA 1000 event in Dubai at 150/1, and also won gold in the Doubles at the Olympics). Paolini is 40/1 at best for Roland Garros this spring, and more like 28/1 in general
And in the most recent Grand Slam, at the US Open last year, we were on America’s Taylor Fritz at 66/1 Each Way - that was also a debut Major final for him, and Taylor was runner-up for a half-the-odds payout. In the ante-post betting for New York this August, the bookies make Fritz 30/1 at best, and as short as 12/1 with one sportsbook
This is why we play, the way we play. Would you rather be on the short-price favourite, following all the fence-sitting, mainstream media chat… or the first to know about a 33/1, 66/1, or 150/1 price and a new kid on the block? Here at Ones to Watch, we’re firmly in the latter camp.
It’s a long-term game, of course. We’re not going to hit it out the park with a massive outsider at giant odds every time. No way. But we’ll always be going after the very best prices, backed by the hours (and hours) of research, fact-finding and form-hunting that I love to do, on your behalf…
With the draws now made for the Australian Open 2025, let’s add one more position to our Outright, Each Way book - before a ball is hit…
We’ll have plenty of time to update and make moves over the next two weeks, where I see fit.
For today, let’s add to our pre-tournament selections listed above (Shapovalov in the men’s; Vondrousova, Jabeur, Keys in the women’s)...
With a couple of players in a lower price range than the 100/1 dream tickets - but with excellent credentials to make a serious challenge for the respective men’s & women’s titles this month…
And as an Each Way double, compared to less than 7/1 for the favourites Sinner & Sabalenka as mentioned above - this pair pays over 50/1, and a top-price 65/1…
Each Way double…
Men’s: Alexander Zverev @ 11/1
The 27-year-old German is the world no.2, but not many people are talking about him. Sandwiched between no.1 Sinner and no.3 Carlos Alcaraz at the top of the rankings and Aussie Open seedings, Zverev at 11/1, 10/1 or 9/1 catches the eye as a very strong ‘best of the rest’ candidate…
Sinner and Alcaraz split the four ‘Slams between them last season, but Sascha Zverev has come very close to landing Major honours on several occasions. For example, he made the semi finals here in Melbourne last year (and also in 2020). Last season, the big-serving German also reached the final at the French Open (after three Paris semi finals in a row before that). And at the US Open, Alex made the final in 2020, and the semis the year after.
In other words, Zverev has been knocking on the door for some time. As did the man who beat him in that 2020 US Open final, Dominic Thiem, with the Austrian eventually winning a Major after a similar run of near misses and finals…
Sascha ended 2024 with a run of final and semi final on tour, and he can continue to challenge for the top prizes in 2025.
As 2nd seed this fortnight, Zverev is placed in the opposite side of the draw to the favourite, reigning champ & no.1, Sinner. Meaning they can’t meet until the final. We’ll take him Each Way, along with this young lady…
Women’s: Coco Gauff @ 9/2
I’ve pointed out her double-faults as an area of weakness in the past, but there’s an air of The Time is Now about Coco Gauff in 2025…
The young American star - still just 20 years of age - is the world no.3, has been as high as no.2… and has already won the US Open (2023), reached the French Open final (2022), and made the semi finals here in Australia (2024)...
A key factor here could be that Gauff holds a 5-4 career head-to-head over the leading name in Melbourne, Sabalenka. And has won her last two meetings against no.2 Iga Swiatek - with those victories coming in November, and then just this month. If the mental edge has swung slightly in Coco’s favour, then that might be the release-latch for the American to take her already stellar young career to the next level…
It’s an insult to call Coco a ‘best of the rest’ pick in the women’s event here: she’s a proper contender, and is going in at 9/2 (5.5) or 4/1 (5.0) to add real meat to our Each Way double alongside Zverev for the men’s…
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
Australian Open 2025:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Already in the book as Each Way singles (see above):
Denis Shapovalov
Marketa Vondrousova
Ons Jabeur
Madison Keys
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lookout for more from me on the Australian Open on Monday…
And follow our new WhatsApp channelhere to get updates whenever any Ones to Watch emails and advice are emailed out.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone