Tennis Betting Advice - January 2025
Australian Open: P & P to pay at 40/1...
Tuesday 14th January 2025
If you back two horses for the Grand National, you’ll be covering around 6% of the field…
If we back seven or eight players at a tennis Grand Slam, we’ll also be covering around 6% of the field…
On day one of this week’s Australian Open, a total of 128 players went off in the women’s event…
We’re on two of them as it stands…
Madison Keys went in the book for us a 100/1 shot last Wednesday. Since then, the American has won the WTA Adelaide tournament… her winning streak stands at six matches in a row… and she’s now down to 33/1 or 28/1 for the Aussie Open.
We’ve got a big price pointing in our favour there. But as I was saying the other day, we’re always onto a bit of a mixed bag with our huge long-shot, Ones to Watch outsider selections…
So it is then, that our 150/1 early-bird pick Marketa Vondrousova got injured two days after we backed her, and duly pulled out of Melbourne a few hours before she was due to play her 1st-round match.
While Ons Jabeur - in the book at 66/1 - 40/1 for us last week - has drifted…
Jabeur is now available at 100/1 with Skybet… with Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook going 90/1. Ons won her 1st-round match this morning, in straight sets. Bet365 briefly went 100/1, but have now halved that to 50/1…
If you ask me, the Tunisian ‘Minister of Happiness’ and former world no.2 has a better chance of winning the ‘Happy Slam’ in Australia this month, than those giant odds suggest…
For example, Jabeur is 10/1 at best with Betfred to win Quarter 4 of the draw, eg. make the semi final from her section of the draw. The Outright Winner leap to 100/1 or so Each Way (with half the odds for reaching the final) to win one or two more matches than that Quarter Winner market asks, looks too big a gap to me.
Big-name double…
In terms of the star names closer to the top of the betting. You’re never going to get me putting up the short-price favourites…
But our 50/1+ Each Way double on Coco Gauff for the women’s title and Alexander Zverev for the men’s has the potential to give us a big run. Both won their 1st-round matches in straight sets. That double on two of last year’s Australian Open semi-finalists is now trading at just over 40/1 in general.
Hit or miss at 500/1…
In the men’s event, we’ve got just the one wild outsider in the book. Left-hander shotmaker Denis Shapovalov was flagged up in this column as an ante-post outsider prospect for the Australian Open 2025, last November. Since then, we’ve taken anything from 100s and 150s to 200/1 & 300/1… as I write, Skybet (them again), Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook have Denis right out at 500/1…
Shapo’ is certainly hit or miss. But as I was eager to press home in my original write-up for the Canadian: his talent is not in question. He’s one of those ‘on his day he can beat anyone’ players. I like him. But following Denis can mean you tear out a few hairs along the way…
In his 1st-round win this morning, Shapovalov fired down an impressive 24 aces… but also chalked up an ugly 15 double faults. He unleashed a whopping 71 winners from his racket… but also piled up a scary 72 unforced errors. See what I mean? Hit or miss. Win or bust. I wouldn’t back him at 5/1… but I can sure see the promise at 500/1.
Back to my starting point about covering a modest percentage of the total runners and riders…
We can add a couple more women to our Australian Open selections today, with odds of 40/1 appealing to my underdog sensibilities here: both of these players are in the Top 10 in the world rankings…
P & P to pay at 40/1…
As previously reported, Jasmine Paolini put together a stellar season in 2024. We were on the diminutive Italian at 150/1 Each Way for the French Open on clay (runner-up)... she won WTA Dubai on hard courts at 150/1, for the biggest title of her career… reached the Wimbledon final as a 66/1 shot… and also won Doubles Gold for Italy at the Olympics in Paris.
Add in the little-mentioned fact that Jasmine also reached the 4th Round (AKA the Last 16, AKA Week Two) at the two hard-courts Majors last year: Australian Open and US Open. And we have a fair case to say Paolini is still being underrated as a 40/1 Grand Slam shot right now. Especially considering her draw here in Melbourne; I’ve been going through the sheet, and I like her chances of getting to the quarter finals… and building up another head of steam, which isn’t such a big ask for a player so confident in her game right now. I think she’s still being underrated as a title/ finalist threat here.
For example, if the seeds go to plan - which by the way, they rarely do in women’s Grand Slam these days - then 6th seed Elena Rybakina would be a quarter-final opponent for the 4th seed Paolini. The Italian leads that head-to-head, and won their last meeting on hard courts…
Elsewhere in the field, Jessica Pegula at 45/1 also appeals. I’ve lamented her lack of deep Grand Slam runs in the past… but the American finally broke through after half-a-dozen Major quarter-final heartbreakers - reaching a maiden Major final at the most recent one, the US Open 2024…
Jess has all the power and shot-making consistency to go very, very well here. Indeed, we were on the current 7th seed when she was much more unknown. We backed Pegula as a 100/1 Ones to Watch pick here in Melbourne back in 2021. She made the quarter finals for us then. And went on to reach the quarter finals again in both 2022 and 2023.
Hard courts are where it’s at for Pegula, as with many American players. If she ever wins a ‘Slam, it’ll most likely be here or in New York. Right now, as with Paolini, I like Pegula’s chances of going well into week two here at the Australian Open 2025…
Round 2 presents a tricky hurdle in Elise Mertens, who leads that head-to-head. But they haven’t met on hard courts since 2021, and things are different now: Jess is a Top 10 player, and has shown she can reach a Grand Slam final. If Pegula gets past that potential Belgian banana-skin, she can take courage and confidence in the knowledge that she holds a winning record against some of her touted upcoming foes for the deep end of the tournament…
For example, Pegula leads the head-to-head 2-0 v Karolina Muchova, with both victories over the Czech talent coming on hard courts just last year. Jess is 3-1 against the big-serving Liudmila Samsonova… 2-1 v Paula Badosa in completed matches… and 3-0 v compatriot Coco Gauff on outdoor hard courts.
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
Australian Open 2025 - Women’s:
Jasmine Paolini @ 40/1 Skybet, Betfred, Unibet (& BetUK, BetMGM, LiveScoreBet), Star Sports, 35/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 33/1 William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports, 888 Sport, Ladbrokes, Coral
Jessica Pegula @ 45/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 40/1 Skybet, Betfred, Unibet (& BetUK, BetMGM, LiveScoreBet), 33/1 general
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I’ll be back with your next Australian Open update on Thursday.
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Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone