Tennis Betting Advice - January 2025

Australian Open: The work that no-one else sees...

Thursday 16th January 2025

The work that no-one else sees is the work that counts the most…

Do you watch Dragons’ Den? The above statement caught my eye in last week’s episode. It came from a guy who’s been through some hard times - and is coming out the other side…

Here at Ones to Watch, there’s certainly a lot of work that no-one else sees. A huge amount of thinking time, research, note-making, mental self-flagellation… with hundreds of players and thousands of matches to sift through and consider…

If every potential bet, angle, formbook note, hunch or headache found it into your member emails, I’d be writing you massive essays all day every day… and as the modern internet phrase goes, it might be a case of TL:DR (‘Too Long: Didn’t Read’)...

So, today’s key point can be distilled into one used-before Ones to Watch phrase… when it comes to players we like, and the tournament Outright Winner markets:

We can’t back them all…

For example, in the women’s Australian Open this week. Three of our listed Ones to Watch youngsters from the last couple of seasons are going well in the early rounds:

Clara Tauson (age 22), Mirra Andreeva (17), and Diana Shnaider (20). But I haven’t backed them. All three are in the same section of the draw as world no.1 and reigning two-time Aussie Open champion, Aryna Sabalenka…

Our friend Marta Kostyuk (and 100/1 losing Indian Wells semi-finalist for us last year), is also in that half of the draw. The 22-year-old remains tantalisingly talented, and yet inconsistent/ unpredictable. Who knows when the great leap forward will come…

Elsewhere…

In the men’s event. The three Czech men that featured in your Ones to Watch in 2025 Special Report: The Czech-list, are all through to the 3rd Round in Melbourne this week…

The teenager, Jakub Mensik, along with Jiri Lehecka, and Tomas Machac. Between them, those Czech lads might have to take out record 10-time Australian Open winner, Novak Djokovic. Machac faces him next. It could be Lehecka after that. And if Mensik goes really deep, he could face Novak in the semis…

Not to mention that four of the five leading young men named as ‘Ones to Watch’ in last season’s report are also still very much in the running in week one here Down Under: Ben Shelton, Holger Rune, Arthur Fils, and Jack Draper

But as I say: we can’t back them all. And I said I wasn’t going to write a mammoth essay.

  • I’m working on an article to send you next week about players making their Grand Slam breakthroughs - be it youngsters bursting onto the scene, or older names finally coming good. I’ll report back next week…

As of today, our ‘open’ Australian Open 2025 Outright Winner, big-odds, Each Way book looks like this…

Click on the links below to read the original advice…

Men’s & Women’s:

Each Way double - Coco Gauff & Alexander Zverev >>

Women’s:

Madison Keys >>

Ons Jabeur >>

Jasmine Paolini >>

Jessica Pegula >>

All of those are through to the 3rd Round, which starts tonight and runs through until Saturday morning, UK time.

And as ever, we are riding the rollercoaster…

For example, Jabeur is yet to drop a set - but was struggling badly with her asthma in her last match…

In Round 2, Keys was at times, “all over the place” (the Eurosport commentator’s words, not mine)... but after winning by two sets to one, the American said, “I feel good”... Maddie went in the book for us at a standout 100/1, pre-tournament. She’s now 40/1 at best, as short as 25/1 with some firms… and is on a seven-match winning streak…

I’ll be in touch…

We’re going to stick with our selections for now. There’s a long way to go yet. I’ll report back next week, with a scheduled next email for you on Monday. If there’s a player or price I feel I need to send you before then, I will of course email you - and our WhatsApp channel will also keep you posted (Follow Ones to Watch on WhatsApp here).

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch