Tennis Betting Advice - January 2025
Australian Open: Skin in the game in the Quarter Finals...
Monday 20th January 2025
Call me a broken record… but I stick to my guns…
When it comes to our big-odds Ones to Watch picks:
It only takes one…
On the Wednesday before the Australian Open began, we backed Madison Keys at a standout 100/1 Each Way…
The American went on to win the WTA Adelaide event on the eve of the Australian Open. And following that trophy win, Keys went off at 50/1 at best for the big one here in Melbourne - and more like 33/1 in general.
Fast-forward a week and a bit, and our pre-tournament Australian Open pick is through to the women’s Quarter Finals, which takes place over the next two days.
The bookies now make Keys a 14/1 shot at best to win what would be a maiden Major title this coming weekend. Some firms are now single figures for the big-hitting 29-year-old, at 8/1.
The oddsmakers have our player as the favourite to win her Quarter Final against Elina Svitolina. Keys edges the career head-to-head in that match-up with the Ukrainian, 3-2 - with all five previous meetings also coming on outdoor hard courts.
We have those things in our favour then: the original 100/1 outright price, and slight favourability going into the next match…
Double in contention…
Our Aussie Open 2025 outright book also contains one more outstanding position. With our 65/1 Each Way double on Coco Gauff & Alexander Zverev also arriving intact and very much alive & kicking as we reach the Quarter Finals…
That pre-tournament double across the women’s & men’s events was 50/1+ when we first got involved. The Coco & Sascha combo is today 39/1 in general (4/1 Gauff x 7/1 Zverev).
Each Way terms…
And it’s important to note that we also have Each Way terms in our favour with our picks…
At the start of the tournament, bookies were betting the standard 1/2 odds place terms for reaching the final. Firms are now going with reduced terms of 1/3 odds for 1-2 places.
So, once again, we have a couple of things in favour, with our long-term, outright, aggressive big-odds approach…
Gauff and Zverev are also both priced up as the favourites to win their respective Quarter Finals.
Coco takes on Paula Badosa, with the head-to-head level at 3-3 - but with our young American having won their most recent encounter, and on outdoor hard courts, too.
Sascha Zverev is the bookies’ favourite to beat Tommy Paul. The American actually holds a 2-0 head-to-head, with both wins coming on outdoor hard courts. But they haven’t met since 2022, and the higher-ranked German’s greater Grand Slam experience may help decide this one - Paul is yet to face Zverev in a best-of-five-sets match…
That said, I’m on record of being a fan and follower of the understated Paul. On another day, we might’ve been rooting for Tommy here as a big-odds tournament underdog…
But with the victor of this match set to face the formidable Carlos Alcaraz or Novak Djokovic in the Semi Finals, I’ll stick with our one position in this half of the men’s draw, and that’s Zverev as part of our tournament EW double.
The Quarter Finalists - and their day-one prices…
A look at the day-one Outright Winner prices of this week’s Australian Open Quarter Finalists shows the lie of the land as we approach the business end of the tournament.
It’s a mixture of the expected short-price star names, and a good few surprise packages and outsiders…
Men’s Quarter Finalists (day one prices in brackets):
Jannik Sinner (6/5) v Alex De Minaur (50/1)
Ben Shelton (150/1) v Lorenzo Sonego (500/1)
Novak Djokovic (11/2) v Carlos Alcaraz (7/2)
Tommy Paul (100/1) v Alexander Zverev (11/1)
Women’s Quarter Finalists (day one prices in brackets):
Aryna Sabalenka (5/2 ) v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (400/1)
Coco Gauff (9/2) v Paula Badosa (66/1)
Madison Keys (50/1) v Elina Svitolina (125/1)
Emma Navarro (50/1) v Iga Swiatek (9/2)
Long-time Ones to Watch followers may recognise a few of those big-odds names…
For example, we were on Shelton as a 200/1 ante-post pick for the Australian Open 2024… and Sonego at 350/1 as ‘a potential surprise package’ here in Melbourne in 2022.
Not to mention the likes of current Top 5 stars Sinner, Alcaraz, and Gauff, backed for the 2022 event at odds of 33/1 and 25/1 - before they made it big.
We’re all about finding the next big price…
Stay tuned for more updates. I’ve got at least one more article lined up for you this week…
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone