Tennis Betting Advice - January 2026
Australian Open: Ones to Watch picks at 100/1 and 500/1...
Friday 16th January 2026
The first Grand Slam of the season is upon us…
Play starts in Melbourne late this Saturday night/ early Sunday morning, UK time.
In the build-up to the Australian Open, we’ve done a good couple of bits of Ones to Watch business in terms of snagging large prices - which is our main focus…
This week, we hit the bar with 250/1 Kimberly Birrell making the semi finals at WTA Adelaide.
And in the ante-post betting for the women’s Australian Open, we are on MARTA KOSTYUK at 100/1 from earlier this month (you can read the original advice from 8th January here).
The 23-year-old Ukrainian, ranked 20 in the world, reached the WTA Brisbane final in her first tournament of the year. In my notes, I’ve got Marta down as looking ‘ripped and ready’ for 2026…
We made our first early-bird move for 2026 at the end of last season, with DIANA SHNAIDER going in the book at 100/1 for the Australian Open. Catch up on the full write-up from 19th November here.
Shnaider has started the new season in promising form, too. The 21-year-old Russian world no.23 got to the Adelaide semi finals this week. And she looked full of smiles and energy on court, sporting her trademark bandana.
As with Kostyuk, young left-hander Diana is not quite the finished article yet - but she’s getting there. And as I always say, the big breakthrough and leap forward can come at any time…
Shnaider is still available at 100/1 as I write, with BetVictor and Skybet. Along with 90/1 at Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, 80/1 Bet365, Betfred, Boylesports
With all our tournament picks, unless otherwise stated, we’re looking to bet Each Way with standard terms of 1/2 odds for 1-2 places
In Wednesday’s email, I reported on the rich recent history of big-odds shocks and surprises at the women’s Aussie Open. In a nutshell, evidence like this acts as great encouragement for outsider bettors like you & I:
Those numbers frank the anything-can-happen atmosphere that we frequently refer to at the women’s Majors…
With these eye-catching Grand Slam figures as shown in this year’s pre-season Ones to Watch in 2026 Report (view the report here):
With those enticing stats in mind. And the Australian Open 2026 draws now out, allowing us to plot a player’s potential path through the tournament. Let’s make our next moves today, before a ball is hit at Melbourne Park this weekend…
Dangerous hitters at fancy prices…
Concentrating on only the very biggest of prices from the off (we may well back others in different price brackets in the days and rounds ahead, as the event progresses). Two further names for our women’s book today:
DAYANA YASTREMSKA has shown how dangerous she can be before. Right back in 2020, I had her neck-and-neck, or even slightly ahead of, Sofia Kenin. Both Ones to Watch names for us before the start of that season, Kenin went on to win the Australian Open that year at 50/1, and make the French Open final at 40/1.
Yastremska’s career took a dip around the pandemic, but the big-hitting 25-year-old world no.27 has been on the comeback trail for a while now. Indeed, I wrote a piece about Dayana in summer 2022 (A grand day out…).
The Ukrainian has matured a lot in recent times, and continues to be a threat to any opponent when on song. She has the all-out-attack game that can be wildly hit-and-miss - or devastatingly effective…
The latter was the case at this very venue in 2024, when Yastremska blasted her way to the Australian Open semi finals, having gone off as a 500/1 rank outsider - reeling off eight match wins in a row having come through qualifying. The same 500/1 odds on offer this time, and I like them.
After ending 2025 with a run of six tournaments in a row in which she failed to string together two wins on the trot, Dayana broke that pattern in her very first event of 2026. She’s as streaky as they come - but the massive 500/1 price allows for the jeopardy.
LINDA NOSKOVA is a 100/1 with a few firms today, including in the ‘To Reach the Final’ market (see below). The 21-year-old world no.13 has been a standout Ones to Watch name for us for some time now. Including when we got the young Czech in the book at 100/1 for this tournament in 2024…
Noskova made a maiden Major quarter final that year, beating star player Iga Swiatek along the way in a statement victory (formbook fact: Swiatek needs the Australian Open to complete a career Grand Slam of all four Major titles; as does Carlos Alcaraz in the men’s).
Linda got a very positive write-up from me at the end of last season, too. With her serving stats of particular note. Clara Tauson also featured in those notes, and like Noskova, the only question mark I have right now is fitness. Tauson, who is priced at 150/1 here, lost her first match of 2026 - and then retired injured in her second.
Noskova had her thigh strapped last time I saw her in action this month, but she’s had this week off to get ready for Melbourne. I like her power, her on-court demeanour (quiet determination). And Linda looks to have that extra edge we’re looking for in a young outsider: a taste for a big-match encounter. You can’t teach that. We’ll take the big odds while we can.
Big-serving outsiders in the 28 Club…
In the men’s event, it’s a lot harder to make a clear case for a surprise package. Such is the newly-established domination of the world’s top two - Carlos Alcaraz, and reigning two-time Aussie Open champ, Jannik Sinner. They’ve met in each of the last three Grand Slam finals - and between them, Alcaraz and Sinner have won the last eight Majors.
Sinner is odds-on at 5/6 (1.83) to make it three in a row for him in Melbourne. Alcaraz is 7/4 (2.75) to win it for the first time. However good those guys are - and they’re very good - you didn’t join this service to be told the obvious…
If anyone is going to break through and make some serious headlines as an underdog here, then we need to think a bit leftfield, and go somewhat against the Grand Slam formbook…
HUBERT HURKACZ has just returned from a lengthy injury layoff. But that’s a good thing. As Hubi looked fresh and ready at the United Cup international team event the other day - helping Poland win the trophy. That’s a fantastic confidence boost ahead of the first ‘Slam of the year - and the first of his comeback…
A massive serve (firing down plenty of aces) and a consistent hitting game has helped Hurkacz crack the Top 10 in the past. He’s been as high as no.6, and made the Wimbledon semi finals for us as a 100/1+ shot in 2021, where he became the last man to ever play (and beat) Roger Federer at SW19.
Currently down at no.53 in the world after last year’s injury problems, Hurkacz is also now in the ‘28 Club’ - 28 being a noteworthy age that we discussed several times last season. In short: it’s a good age to come good as a sportsperson. It’s a long shot - of course it is - but odds of 100/1 for this former Aussie Open quarter-finalist appeal to my against-the-grain, underdog-sensing tendencies here.
Talking of 100/1 outsiders worth taking a flyer on, ALEXANDER BUBLIK is another man I like as something a bit different to the favourites at the top of the game…
After the best season of his career last year, I wrote this piece about the charismatic Khazakh: Alexander the Great? Maybe…
Bublik is also currently in the 28 Club. And while he doesn’t have the day-to-day consistency of nice-guy Hurkacz, joker turned contender Bublik is now at a career-high no.10 in the world - and has started 2026 just where he left off in 2025, by winning yet another ATP title…
Alexander possesses greater natural creative flair and racket-skills talent than Hurkacz (think slices, lobs, and dropshots), while also boasting a similarly monstrous serving weapon.
The next step is a big ask, and may well define Bublik’s career: can he actually do something at a Grand Slam, in a best-of-five-sets format? On paper, three 1st round defeats in a row here at Melbourne Park suggest it’s a big problem…
But on the other hand… this is a guy who has won five ATP titles since the start of last June. A run that has resulted in him becoming a Top 10 player for the first time. And a silverware-winning streak that only started once Alex got the Major monkey off his back by reaching a Grand Slam quarter final for the very first time, at the French Open 2025.
Anyone who saw the tears of joy from Bublik after he made that quarter final in Paris should be in no doubt as to the will-to-win that lies beneath the wisecracks and showmanship of this talented yet previously volatile player.
And if that last description sounds familiar, it’s because we’ve used similar words about Nick Kyrgios before - and he went on to at least fulfil some of his immense potential by reaching a Wimbledon final (at odds of 33/1).
We’ll follow the Bublik storyline and take a calculated risk by backing him to break new ground Down Under and continue his upwards career arc, with prices as big as 100/1 and 80/1 on the table.
Today’s email is all about getting some whoppers in the book, before a ball is hit. And here they are…
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Ones to Watch picks - Australian Open:
See above for full details
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
Note: in some cases (Noskova and Hurkacz below) the best prices can be obtained by backing Win Only AND to Reach the Final, instead of Each Way. E.g, 1 pt stake to win and 1 pt to reach the final, as opposed to 1 pt Each Way.
Dayana Yastremska @ 500/1 Skybet, Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports, StarSports
Linda Noskova - best price combo @ 100/1 Win Only with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, BetVictor - AND to Reach the Final @ 110/1 Unibet, 100/1 William Hill, Boylesports
Already backed at 100/1 Each Way ante-post:
Diana Shnaider
Marta Kostyuk
Hubert Hurkacz - best price combo @ 125/1 Win Only with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, Coral, 120/1 BetMGM, VirginBet, BetUK & LiveScoreBet, 100/1 Bet365, Betfred, Boylesports, Unibet, StarSports, BresBet, PricedUp - AND to Reach the Final @ 80/1 Bet365, 70/1 Unibet, 66/1 William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports
Alexander Bublik @ 100/1 BetMGM, VirginBet, BetUK & LiveScoreBet, StarSports, BresBet, PricedUp, 80/1 Skybet, William Hill, Betfred, SpreadEx, Sporting Index, 70/1 BetVictor, 66/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
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P.S
This is just the start of our mission Down Under…
Look out for your next email tomorrow (Saturday morning), when I’ll be letting you know how to get access to all my match picks during the tournament.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone