Tennis Betting Advice - January 2026
Australian Open: The confidence of youth at 125/1...
Thursday 22nd January 2026
A quick update from me regarding our latest Australian Open Outright Winner positions, before we head into the weekend - with the 3rd round getting underway tonight…
Jessica Pegula was one of the most impressive winners of the day yesterday, cruising to a 6-0, 6-2 victory in double-quick time. I’m glad we got on Jess at 40/1 - 33/1 when we did, with the American now more like 25/1 - 20/1 in general. Although Skybet and Boylesports are still 33/1 as I write.
Teenage star Mirra Andreeva is also a heavy favourite to progress to the last 16. The 18-year-old, in the book for us this week at 14/1, takes on world no.79 Elena-Gabriella Ruse. Andreeva is now 12/1 at best for the trophy.
Before a ball was hit, we got on Diana Shnaider and Linda Noskova in the women’s, and Alexander Bublik in the men’s…
The latter is our sole man standing, with it looking sensible to keep selections to a minimum in respect of the domination and brilliance of the Top 2, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. That doesn’t mean I’m not on the lookout for underdog vibes, though…
Bublik fits the bill there so far, playing well - with the demeanour of a talented player who’s now realised the focus it takes to really achieve and go far in this sport. We got 100/1 and 80/1 at best; he’s now 40/1 in general - with Skybet going 66/1, albeit with their now reduced Each Way terms of 1/3 odds for reaching the final (as opposed to standard 1/2 odds terms elsewhere).
Noskova (backed here), and Shnaider (an early-bird pick from last November, here), both went in the book before the event at top prices of 100/1 or better…
Noskova is now 80/1 - 66/1 with the main firms.
Two teenagers to add today…
In a large, 128-player field like this, we can make several moves in the Outright Winner market. Especially at the big prices we tend to go for. And even more so in the women’s, where there is a rich history of shocks & surprises…
In this year’s pre-season Ones to Watch in 2026 Report, I talk in more detail about the ‘wide open’ women’s Grand Slams…
And seeing as we have yet to actually back a player from that list for the Australian Open 2026, now’s the time…
From the nine names in the report, four are into the Aussie Open 3rd round…
Learner Tien in the men’s (he’s 100/1+ across the board right now, with Skybet, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook going 275/1, with those 1/3 odds Each Way terms).
And in the women’s, which is where we’re most interested here. Three teenagers from our report are still in the hat…
Tereza Valentova (300/1 William Hill today, and 200/1+ most firms). She is in the bottom half of the draw, and has a tough task in the next round, against world no.5 Elena Rybakina. I’m happy with our two picks in the bottom half for now (Noskova and Pegula).
However, on the opposite side of the drawsheet, things could yet get very interesting for the two outstanding young names from our pre-season list of youngsters to watch: VICTORIA MBOKO, and IVA JOVIC…
This is where the draw gets really intriguing. Mboko takes on fellow Ones to Watch regular, 23-year-old Clara Tauson, in the 3rd round tonight. And the winner of that one will very likely then be facing world no.1 and title favourite, Aryna Sabalenka…
While further down in this side of the draw, Jovic is the underdog to beat established and experienced Top 10 player, Jasmine Paolini. With a 0-2 head-to-head to overcome from two contests against the Italian last year, I was impressed to hear 18-year-old Iva talking about how she feels she learnt from those defeats. Sounds like she’s got a plan for round three. I get the sense that the American is feeling confident about her game and her chances right now. That’s what we like…
Confidence is the word with Mboko, too. The way she’s playing, the 19-year-old Canadian is a valid favourite to beat another of my favourite ‘potential future champions’ tonight, in Tauson. After that, a possible big-stage encounter with Sabalenka could be the moment this tournament lights up, with a young gun genuinely taking the game to the world no.1. That’s how I see it.
And with Jovic having a very winnable-looking next match, if she can get past Paolini tonight. It’s more than just a temptation to back the teenager at 100/1+... it’s an opportunity to be taken…
Sometimes, you have to trust in youth - and go with the momentum. While Jovic at triple figures is a low-downside price, Mboko at 40/1 or 33/1 maybe needs more justification. Well, here it is…
Victoria got a headline-level write-up in my pre-season report. She won a ‘Masters’ 1000 title on hard courts in Montreal last summer (we were on at 28/1 during the tournament). She started 2026 by reaching a WTA 500 final in Adelaide. And having been 33/1 on day one of the Australian Open, Mboko has since won through the 1st and 2nd rounds in straight sets, and looked very good indeed.
We’ll back these two youngsters today, with our book then ripe with promise as we head into the business end of the competition next week…
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Ones to Watch picks - Australian Open:
See above for full details
Women’s Outright Winner:
Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
Note: For the very best prices on Jovic, back Win Only AND to Reach the Final (alternative to Each Way).
Already in the book/ open:
Women’s
Diana Shnaider
Linda Noskova
Mirra Andreeva
Jessica Pegula
Men’s
Alexander Bublik
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P.S
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Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone