Tennis Betting Advice - July 2018

Wimbledon: Bets of the Day – value-hunting at 40/1…

Tuesday 3rd July 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Wimbledon Day 2 – play starts 11.30am…
  • Value-hunting at 40/1…
  • Looking for the upsets…
  • 13/1 for lucky number 7…

Wimbledon – Bets of the Day

Good morning and welcome to Day 2 of your Wimbledon 2018 coverage…

Play starts at 11.30am.

Value-hunting in the bottom half…

Long-time followers will know I’m always on the lookout for a shock or surprise; looking to back a big price outsider over a short price tournament favourite.

This approach means our underdog picks sometimes get taken out early on in a tournament. Such was the case yesterday when our 50/1 shot Magdalena Rybarikova crashed out in the 1st Round.

That result was made all the more frustrating by the fact that a couple of the other players identified as poor value in that section of the draw – last year’s Wimbledon quarter-finalist Coco Vandeweghe, and World No.5 Elina Svitolina – both also went out on day one.

And with World No.4 Sloane Stephens also sent packing, the bottom half of the Women’s draw is already worthy of the familiar ‘wide open’ tag…

Venus @ 40/1…

With two-time champion Petra Kvitova 4/1 for the title and the one to beat in the top half, the bottom section of the draw is where we should be hunting for value right now.

Venus Williams is a name that stands out here. Now age 38, it is 10 years since the five-time Wimbledon winner last lifted the famous trophy. But Venus made the final here as recently as last year, and while her fitness and age means she’s no longer a threat on the week-by-week tour, the grass courts of Wimbledon are the one place where she could still make a real impact. And let’s not forget, veteran or not, Venus is still currently a Top 10 player, ranked No.9 in the world.

Venus made a slow start in her 1st Round match yesterday but that’s understandable considering she was playing her first grass court match of the year. By the end she was imposing herself and bossing play in familiar Williams style, coming through to win 2-1.

With Stephens out, Venus is now a narrow 4/1 second favourite behind 3/1 Karolina Pliskova to win the 3rd Quarter. Pliskova is a tall big-hitting player with one of the best serves on the WTA Tour so on paper you think she might be a Wimbledon contender, but the World No.8 has an awful record at Wimbledon, never having been past the 2nd Round in seven attempts to date. She struggled to a 2-1 win over a lowly English wild card yesterday, getting past World No.171 Harriet Dart. Next up for Pliskova is a very tough match v Victoria Azarenka.

Elsewhere in the bottom half of the draw, Serena Williams is the 2/1 favourite in the 4th Quarter and the 5/1 second favourite for the title. I’m really not sure about that. You need to win seven matches to win a Grand Slam and from what I’ve seen in her comeback matches so far, Serena’s movement and fitness might not be quite there.

The likes of 16/1 Caroline Wozniacki (yet to reach the quarter finals in 12 visits to SW19) and 16/1 Madison Keys (one quarter final from six visits) are two other names right up there in the betting and placed in the bottom half of the draw. Both are players I like, but the prices aren’t great.

As ever the Women’s title looks there for the taking for any number of players in the draw, and at attractive prices we can afford to back two or three over the course of the tournament. At 40/1 and 33/1Venus is one to get on our side for now.

Outright Winner – Women’s:

BET: Venus Williams @ 40/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 40/1 (41.00) Bet365, William Hill, 33/1 (34.00) Ladbrokes, Coral, Paddy Power, Betfred, Boylesports, Betway, BetVictor, NetBet, 10Bet
Latest odds here

  • Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

Looking for the upsets…

One day in and we’ve already seen a couple of upsets. One match in particular catches the eye for me as potential banana skin today. Throughout the tournament we’ll be latching on to the big outsider prices like these. They won’t all come off but at these prices we don’t need many to get into profit…

Gabriella Taylor to beat Eugenie Bouchard @ 3/1

Britain’s Gabriella Taylor will have the crowd on her side here and former Wimbledon finalist Eugenie Bouchard is no stranger to a wonky performance and an early exit these days. Since finishing runner-up for us as a 50/1 pick in 2014, Bouchard’s promising young career has tailed off dramatically. She’s gone out in the 1st Round at Wimbledon in two of the last three years, and hasn’t got past the 3rd Round since making the final four years ago.

Taylor gave Sloane Stephens’ conqueror Donna Vekic a hell of a match on grass in Nottingham last month and the 20-year-old can raise her game and pull of a crowd-pleasing upset out on Court 14 here. The match is scheduled for 1pm+.

Match Winner:

BET: Taylor to beat Bouchard @ 3/1
BOOKIES: 3/1 (4.00) Bet365, William Hill, SunBets, Boylesports, Betway, BetVictor, NetBet, 10Bet
Latest odds here

13/1 for lucky number 7…

I don’t go for accas very often but the early rounds of a Grand Slam give us dozens of matches to work with, and combining selections can produce some nice payouts. These 7 players standout for me today, with the acca paying around 13/1.

G.SIMON to beat N.Basilashvili
D.GOFFIN to beat M.Ebden
Y.SUGITA to beat B.Klahn

K.FLIPKENS to beat H.Watson
A.KONJUH to beat C.Liu
C.SUAREZ NAVARRO to beat C.Witthoeft
C.GARCIA to beat B.Bencic

Match Winner – Acca:

BET: 7-fold on the players above to all win @ 13/1
BOOKIES: 13/1 (14.00) BetVictor, Betway, SunBets, 12/1 (13.00) Boylesports, NetBet, 10Bet, 11/1 (12.00) Bet365, William Hill
Latest odds here

In summary…

Here are today’s Bets of the Day (see above for full details):

Women’s Outright Winner – Venus Williams @ 40/1 Each Way

Gabriella Taylor to beat Eugenie Bouchard @ 3/1

7-fold Match Winner acca @ 13/1

  • Take a look at the Tennis Betting Rules page on our site to see why I recommend certain bookies over others
  • Unless otherwise stated in your Ones to Watch emails, all Outright Winner picks are treated as 1 point Each Way stakes and all Match picks are treated as 1 point

I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Wimbledon Bets of the Day for Wednesday.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch