Tennis Betting Advice - July 2019
Wimbledon: Men’s Quarter Finals – and a 45/1 pick…
Wednesday 10th July 2019
Wimbledon - Bets of the Day
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to Day 10 of your Wimbledon 2019 daily service.
Straight sets…
The Women’s Grand Slam quarter final trend continued yesterday. Three of the four matches were settled in straight sets, 2-0. Keeping up the 75% hit-rate for 2-0 quarter final results since the start of 2018.
We got ourselves on three odds-against prices on Wednesday, but were undone in all three after promising starts from our players.
Match pick Karolina Muchova went 5-2 up in the first set, but Elina Svitolina reeled her in and beat her.
Alison Riske took a set off Serena Williams and briefly had the lead at the start of the final set, eventually going down two sets to one. We had price on our side going into the decider with 2-1 Riske at 8/1 in the Set Betting market.
And Johanna Konta’s anticipated nervy match came along one round sooner than I thought it would. The Brit led early on against underdog Barbora Strycova, but lost in straight sets – which was the opposite score-line to what we were looking for.
Men’s Quarter Finals…
Today it’s the Men’s turn for the Quarter Finals. We have an interest here with 200/1 Sam Querrey in the book…
Here’s are today’s match-ups (day one Outright Winner top price in brackets):
Guido Pella (1,000/1) v Roberto Bautista-Agut (200/1)
Novak Djokovic (11/8) v David Goffin (150/1)
Kei Nishikori (200/1) v Roger Federer (10/3)
Sam Querrey (200/1) v Rafael Nadal (7/1)
As with the Women’s draw, there are some massive prices on show. The difference being – while shocks are to be expected in the Women’s – anything other than Djokovic, Federer & Nadal going through today would be seen as a significant upset.
That doesn’t mean the big three will have it all their own way though. For the underdogs, there’s a glimmer of hope in the head-to-heads…
Djokovic has a 5-2 record v Goffin, but Goffin has won two of the last three (including a ‘friendly’ Exhibition match on grass in 2016).
Federer is 7-3 v Nishikori – but Nishikori won their most recent encounter, on indoor hard courts at the ATP Tour Finals last November.
Nadal is 4-1 v Querrey. Again, the outsider won the most recent outing, with Querrey beating Nadal on hard courts in the Acapulco final in 2017.
And taking the positive approach in support of our man Sam today…
The task is of course massive today. But we have price very much on our side, and that gives us options…
Saver on Sam…
We have plenty of points to play with here. Sam Querrey, backed in the Outright Winner market at top prices of 200/1 and 150/1, is now 50/1 & 40/1.
With Sam taking on Rafa today, the sensible move is to have a hefty stake on Nadal in the Match Winner market – as a saver bet to cover our initial outlay on Querrey (1 pt Each Way = 2 pts).
Staking 20 pts on Nadal to beat Querrey @ 1/10 (1.10) would return 22 pts, leaving us break-even on the Querrey bet if our man loses. While still leaving us with a massive price on our side should Sam spring the surprise and reach the semis.
Beyond the big names…
The least glamourous match on the quarter final schedule is the one I’m most interested in betting on today…
Guido Pella v Roberto Bautista-Agut is the World No.26 v the World No.22. This match-up would have made more sense as a French Open quarter final – and even then, on clay, it would have been a surprise to see Pella in particular get this far. But here we are, on the grass, with both men having the chance of a lifetime to reach the Wimbledon semi finals.
Bautista-Agut is the more experienced player and something of a Mr Reliable on the tour. He packs a punch despite his less than imposing physical appearance, and is a real fighter. The Spaniard is the big favourite to beat Pella today, at 1/5 (1.20). The head-to-head is 2-0 to Bautista-Agut – and his Argentinean opponent has had two long five-set matches in the last three rounds. Bautista-Agut is the only player yet to drop a set in the tournament.
There’s a value opportunity for us today…
45/1 Each Way…
If Bautista-Agut gets past Pella today, then – using today’s 1/5 match price and his Outright Winner odds of 40/1+ Each Way (1/3rd odds for reaching the final) as a guide price – Bautista-Agut would be over 10/1 (11.00+) to beat Djokovic (or Goffin) in the semi final.
However, those Each Way place terms would represent a bigger 13/1+ (14.00+) for that potential semi final match-up. And working to the top price 45/1 Each Way, that potential semi price rises to 15/1 (16.00).
That looks too big to me. I don’t reckon Bautista-Agut would be 13/1+ on the day to beat Djokovic in the semis. Roberto has beaten Novak twice this year. The first time he was a 4/1 (5.00) underdog, the second time half a point shorter at 7/2 (4.50).
The overall career head-to-head is 7-3 to Djokovic. They’ve never met on grass. Even taking into account the reigning champion’s pedigree on turf, the price appeals for backing one more outsider at this tournament – Bautista-Agut at 40/1+ Each Way.
Most Double Faults…
Sticking with this match, backing Pella for the Most Double Faults appeals here, too. The Argentinean is likely to be a little weary after a 3-2 win over the big-serving Milos Raonic in the last round – and with a total of 17 sets of tennis played in the Singles so far, compared to 11 for his opponent.
Pella has served 11 Double Faults (0.65 per set). Bautista-Agut has served 8 (at 0.73 per set). Not much between them there but in the year-to-date stats, Pella is 20 Double Faults ahead of the Spaniard, averaging 2.05 per match compared to 1.71 for Bautista-Agut.
With Bautista-Agut the match favourite, more experienced in big matches and the fresher of the two coming into this, and with a reliable and steady all-round demeanour with a racket in his hand – Pella for the Most Double Faults is the pick of the match markets at Evens (2.00).
Today’s bets:
SAVER BET – only place this bet if you backed Querrey as previously advised
Match Winner:
STAKE: 20 pts
BET: Rafael Nadal to beat Sam Querrey @ 1/10
BOOKIES: 1/10+ (1.10+) Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Betway, Boylesports, NetBet, 10Bet
Outright Winner:
BET: Roberto Bautista-Agut @ 45/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 45/1 (46.00) 888 Sport, Unibet, 40/1 (41.00) in general
Guido Pella v Roberto Bautista-Agut:
BET: Most Double Faults – Pella @ Evens
BOOKIES: Evens (2.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook. (No Tie in this market, so bets void if Double Faults score is a draw)
I’ll be back at 8am Thursday with your Bets of the Day email for the Women’s Semi Finals.
P.S
If you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’m on hand via email. You can message me at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson