Tennis Betting Advice - July 2019

Wimbledon: Men’s Semi Finals – Rafa v Roger at 5/1…

Friday 12th July 2019

Wimbledon - Bets of the Day

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Men’s Semi Finals…
  • Rafa v Roger…
  • Play starts 1pm…

Good morning and welcome to Day 12 of your Wimbledon 2019 daily service.

Two hours and 15 minutes…

Centre Court ticket holders might have felt a bit short-changed yesterday. The Women’s Semi Finals were done & dusted in brisk fashion, with a combined total of just two-and-a-quarter hours of tennis.

Serena Williams needed just 61 minutes to beat Barbora Strycova, 6-1, 6-2.

Simona Halep took just one hour and 14 mins to beat Elina Svitolina, 6-1, 6-3.

Those two comfortable straight-sets victories kept up the trend for Women’s Grand Slam semi finals being settled by the 2-0 score. That stat now stands at 11 out of 14 straight-sets semis since the start of 2018 (79%).

We were on that trend with a 27/10 (3.70) winning Double on Serena & Simona to both win 2-0. That made it three profitable days out of four so far this week. Our other Thursday pick was one Halep Ace away from landing, with the Ace tally ending level at 1-1.

We can expect the players to spend more time on court today…

Men’s Semi Finals…

Here’s today’s line-up (day one Outright Winner top price in brackets):

Novak Djokovic (11/8) v Roberto Bautista-Agut (200/1)

Rafael Nadal (7/1) v Roger Federer (10/3)

Today’s match prices are (decimal odds in brackets):

  • Djokovic 1/12 (1.08) v Bautista-Agut 8/1 (9.00)
  • Nadal 8/11 (1.73) v Federer 6/5 (2.20)

We’ve got the rank outsider running for us today, with 40/1+ Each Way pick Roberto Bautista-Agut taking on World No.1 and reigning Wimbledon champion, Novak Djokovic

If this was an ATP Tour match then our man would definitely have a chance – the Spaniard has won his last two best-of-three-set matches v Novak. A Grand Slam semi final is a different matter, but Bautista-Agut has taken a set off the No.1 in all three of their previous Grand Slam encounters with a brace of 3-1 defeats at the French Open and another 3-1 at the US Open.

Djokovic dropped a set in the 3rd Round last week against World No.48 Hubert Hurkacz – and has only won three of his last six Grand Slam semis in straight sets.

3-1 Djokovic…

Our Outright Winner bet on Bautista-Agut (45/1 or 40/1 Each Way with 1/3rd odds for reaching the final) effectively gives us 15/1 or 13/1+ on him beating Djokovic. Today’s match prices have the underdog at 8/1 at best and 7/1 in general, so we have a bit of value on our side, justifying our original selection before the quarter finals, if nothing else.

In terms of an unofficial ‘saver’ for our bet on Bautista-Agut, rather than take short odds-on with a large stake on Djokovic at 1/12 (1.08), or the 3-0 win at 4/6 (1.67), Djokovic to win 3-1 looks a decent percentage pick in its own right at 11/4+ (3.75) and a standout 3/1 (4.00) with William Hill.

Most Double Faults – 5/1 for the tie…

Talking of percentage picks, today we get the chance to pick up on a Double Faults pattern that we flagged up at the French Open last month…

Everyone is talking about Nadal v Federer. This is their 40th career meeting – people are called it ‘XL.’ The head-to-head stands at 24-15 to Rafa overall, but 2-1 to Roger on grass & at Wimbledon. It’s their first meeting here since the epic, era-defining final of 2008.

Eleven years in the making, this could be another classic. The internet is full of articles and previews for the big match today. It’s a blockbuster occasion. The kind of event that even non-tennis fans will tune in to watch.

We’re looking at something a little more obscure than who will win the match…

One quirky stat is that in 17 of their last 20 meetings, the player winning the first set has gone on to win the match. The three ‘comebacks’ in that period were all by Nadal. Here’s another…

  • The Double Faults result has ended in a draw in 5 of their 7 last meetings

In their recent French Open meeting, the Double Faults tally ended 1-1.

Along with a noteworthy five payouts out of seven for the Tie, the stats also show us that in each of their last 10 encounters the tally has either been level, or settled by a margin of just one Double Fault. The numbers are saying there won’t be much in it…

Both men are averaging 2 Double Faults per match this year. So far at Wimbledon 2019, Nadal has served 10 Double Faults, and Federer 8. Both players are averaging less than one per set, which backs up the potential for a close tally this afternoon.

Odds of 5/1 (6.00) for the Most Double Faults ‘Tie’ suggest a 17% chance of the tally finishing level. Going on the stats above, it’s more likely than that.

Today’s bets:

Novak Djokovic v Roberto Bautista-Agut:

BET: Set Betting – Djokovic to win 3-1 @ 3/1
BOOKIES: 3/1 (4.00) William Hill, 11/4+ (3.75+) in general

Latest odds here

Rafael Nadal v Roger Federer:

BET: Most Double Faults – Tie @ 5/1
BOOKIES: 5/1 (6.00) Bet365, Sportingbet, 7/2 (4.50) Skybet

Latest odds here

I’ll be back on Saturday morning with your Bets of the Day email for the Women’s Final.

If you have any questions or want to drop me a line, I’m on hand via email. You can message me at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch