Tennis Betting Advice - July 2019
Wimbledon: 7/1 shot for the Men’s Final…
Sunday 14th July 2019
Wimbledon - Bets of the Day
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to Day 14 of your Wimbledon 2019 daily service.
A 57-minute final is never going to be a classic. But what a performance from Simona Halep yesterday…
Quite simply, Halep played the match of her life. As close to perfect as it gets. She was in the zone from start to finish. Serena had no answers, going down 6-2, 6-2 in less than an hour.
Nobody saw that coming…
We were leaning towards Halep as the underdog, but I opted for the 2-1 Halep score in the Set Betting market at around 5/1. Hindsight is a wonderful thing of course, and I was left slightly kicking myself for not backing Simona to straight-up win the match (at 8/5 – 2.60). But only a little bit. I didn’t see anyone else, anywhere, talking up a straight-sets defeat for Serena – and hardly anyone making a case for Halep to take home the trophy at all.
Simona becomes the first ever Romanian to win a Wimbledon Singles title. Congratulations to her.
Also – more evidence there of something we mentioned at the start of the tournament: we’re seeing more and more trophy wins from players on surfaces they are not necessarily associated with. Halep has always been earmarked for the clay & French Open titles. Grass & Wimbledon was never the instant pick for Halep. We’re seeing a trend towards the ‘all court’ player.
Three finals today…
Moving on to today’s schedule, and it’s another big day at the All England club…
The Men’s Final is the main event. And we also have the Mixed Doubles Final. Along with the Women’s Doubles Final, which has been bumped over from yesterday after an epic Men’s Doubles Final went the full five sets and took up the last of the day’s play.
That Men’s Doubles match lasted a whopping four hours and 57 minutes. The Centre Court crowd will be in delirium if the Singles goes the distance today…
Novak Djokovic v Roger Federer
An absolutely fascinating match in store here with these two men dominating Wimbledon over the last 15 years or so…
At least one of Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer have appeared in the final in 14 of the last 16 years. That’s incredible.
The head-to-head is intriguing, too. The overall career match-up stands at 25 wins to 22 in favour of Djokovic. On grass & at Wimbledon, it’s 2-1 to Novak. And in Grand Slam finals, it’s 3-1 to the Serbian – with two of those coming here at SW19.
When you look at that track record and the fact that Djokovic is the current World No.1 and reigning Wimbledon champion, you can see why the bookies have him as the 8/15 (1.53) favourite today.
However, this is Federer at Wimbledon. The Swiss legend has already beaten Rafael Nadal when priced as the underdog in the semi finals last time out. And Roger is the Wimbledon king with a record eight titles to his name. The bookies make Federer 8/5 (2.60) to win title number nine today.
The crowd will be mostly cheering for Federer, and that adds another dimension to this match – as Djokovic can get a bit sulky when he feels he’s not ‘getting the love.’
Their three previous Wimbledon meetings have all gone to four sets or more, so that bodes well for a close-fought match this afternoon…
Federer Tiebreaks at 7/1…
In their last two Wimbledon meetings – both finals – the First Set has gone to a Tiebreak (7-6), one to Djokovic and one to Federer.
On Friday, the opening set between Roger and Rafa went to a Tiebreak, with Federer taking it.
Serve will be important today – especially for Federer, who is a clear favourite for the Most Aces at 2/5 (1.40) at best. A strong serving performance often lends itself to a Tiebreak opportunity.
There’s a lot riding on the first set, too, with the last 12 encounters between Djokovic & Federer going the way of the player that won the opening set. With Djokovic the younger man and known for his supreme athleticism, it’s fair to say the first set holds more importance for Federer today.
Looking at the betting options & prices…
The bookies make it 2/5 (1.40) at best for a Tiebreak in the Match, and 5/2 (3.50) or 9/4 (3.25) for a First Set Tiebreak.
I want to back Federer here, and we get the best prices on the Tiebreak by taking the more speculative route and going after the Federer 7-6 score…
The 1st Set Score market is widely available, with Roger a standout 7/1 (8.00) with William Hill and 11/2+ (6.50+) in general.
The 2nd Set Score market is harder to come across but still available with a handful of bookies, with William Hill again the place to be with Federer 7-6 at 13/2 (7.50).
In today’s two other finals, in the Women’s Doubles and Mixed Doubles, I like both favourites to win. The Double on both pairings pays Evens (2.00) for a double-your-money payout…
I’ll try and get through the rest of this without using the word ‘doubles’ too often…
In the Women’s, Hsieh & Strycova look fully justified favourites for the win – they’ve won every match 2-0 so far, and hold a 2-0 record over today’s opponents, with those two meetings coming this year and in 2018. Strycova in particular is a woman on a mission – reaching the Singles semi finals this week, and hinting more than once that this might be her last Wimbledon.
In the Mixed final, Dodig & Chan are reigning two-time French Open champions, and after reaching the Wimbledon quarter finals last summer they’ve gone one better so far with this run to the semi finals. Dodig also got to the Men’s Doubles semis this week. Today’s unseeded opponents are less experienced playing together as a team, and two of their last three matches have needed a final set. Watch out for the always entertaining (and erratic) Ostapenko on serve – she’s hit her partner in the back on a couple of occasions in this tournament.
Novak Djokovic v Roger Federer:
BET: 1st Set Score – Federer 7-6 @ 7/1
BOOKIES: 7/1 (8.00) William Hill, 6/1 (7.00) Betway, 11/2 (6.50) general
BET: 2nd Set Score – Federer 7-6 @ 13/2
BOOKIES: 13/2 (7.50) William Hill, 5/1 (6.00) Boylesports, 9/2 (5.50) NetBet, 10Bet
Women’s Doubles – Hsieh & Strycova v Dabrowski & Xu
Mixed Doubles – Lindstedt & Ostapenko v Dodig & Chan
BET: DOUBLE – Hsieh & Strycova and Dodig & Chan to win @ Evens
BOOKIES: Evens (2.00) Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, NetBet, 10Bet, Marathonbet
Five tournaments next week…
The ATP & WTA Tours pick straight back up next week, with no fewer than five tournaments starting on Monday. I’ll be back tonight with a first look at the Outright Winner markets for those events, and we’re likely to have a couple of Each Way picks.
If you have any questions or want to drop me a line, I’m on hand via email. You can message me at: email@example.com
Enjoy the tennis…