Tennis Betting Advice - July 2019
Wimbledon: Monday madness at 13/1 and 17/1…
Monday 8th July 2019
Wimbledon - Bets of the Day
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to Day Eight of your Wimbledon 2019 daily service.
4th Round today…
The entire Men’s and Women’s 4th Round is scheduled for today with 16 matches to look forward to.
With so many big matches to fit in the tournament organisers can’t please everyone – I wonder how World No.1 and reigning champion Novak Djokovic feels about being ‘relegated’ to Court No.1, with rivals Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer getting the bigger billing on Centre Court.
We’re all about the outsiders today. In the Outright Winner markets, we’ve got three players at big prices all with opportunities to make the quarter finals: Sam Querrey, Petra Martic and Dayana Yastremska.
In the match markets, we’re looking for upsets and going for some speculative odds with a trio of banana-skin match-ups…
Looking for shocks on Manic Monday…
They call Wimbledon’s 4th Round day Manic Monday. And we could see some shocks today…
Guido Pella v Milos Raonic
World No.26 Guido Pella is proving something of a surprise package here, with the left-hander especially impressive in knocking out last year’s Wimbledon runner-up Kevin Anderson in the last round, as a 5/1 match outsider.
Today’s opponent is World No.17 and 2016 Wimbledon runner-up, Milos Raonic…
The Canadian is 6’5” tall. Pella – who stands at 6’0” – has a more than decent record against players of heights 6’4”+, winning his last three matches against such players – and six of his last eight. That includes the win over Anderson in the 3rd Round.
That ‘versus tall player’ stat bodes well for an underdog performance and potential upset from the 4/1 shot today. As does the fact that this is their first ever meeting, with the Argentinean having the potential to spring a surprise on the match favourite.
Last July, Pella took out 2017 finalist (and another 6’4”+ player) Marin Cilic at SW19. The score was 3-2 that day and we could see a similar long-haul score-line here…
We went after the 3-2 underdog win against Raonic in the last round, only for Reilly Opelka to put in a disappointingly lacklustre display, fading away in a 7-6, 6-2, 6-1 defeat. Buoyed and rested after dispatching Anderson in straight sets on Friday, Pella can give Raonic a tougher test this afternoon.
All three of Raonic’s matches have featured at least one tiebreak (7-6) set so far. For this grass court season, seven of his nine matches on the turf have seen at least one 7-6 set. Pella is played two won two in tiebreaks so far, and if he could pinch one or two of them today then the shock could be on…
The fifth set upset would require Milos to drop serve – or for Pella to hang in there until 12 games all, at which stage this year for the first time at Wimbledon a tiebreak would be used to decide the match. Raonic is extremely strong on serve. But if this one does go the distance then the injury-prone Canadian may well be flagging a little, along with the pressure in this ‘should win’ match against a lower-ranked opponent not known for their grass court pedigree.
Pella is 4/1 for the match upset. I want to go after the biggest price we can, and the 3-2 score in the Set Betting market fits the bill for the reasons outlined above, at odds of 11/1+ in general and a standout 13/1.
Matteo Berrettini v Roger Federer
Matteo Berrettini has been one of the players of the season so far but still remains somewhat underrated. He’s been in fantastic form this season, up to a career high of No.20 in the rankings and getting to the business end of ATP tournaments with regularity.
Berrettini has reached three finals already in 2019, winning two of them, along with another two semi finals. He’s got an 11-1 match win-loss record on grass this season, including a trophy win in Stuttgart and the semi finals at Halle in the build-up to Wimbledon.
And he’s serving very well. From players left in this tournament, only established serving giants Querrey and Raonic have hit more Aces than the Italian (57). Matteo is also ranked joint-2nd for the fastest serve so far at these championships (142 mph), and one percentage point ahead of Federer for 1st Serve Points Won (82%).
After saving three match points to win 3-2 on Saturday, the in-form 23-year-old has nothing to lose and should relish the chance to take on King Roger on the Centre Court today…
It takes a huge effort to beat Federer at Wimbledon. Last year Anderson saved match point to win 13-11 in the fifth set. In 2016, Raonic came from two sets to one down to win 3-2. And overall, four of the last six men to beat Roger at SW19 have required the full five sets to do so.
With that in mind, standout odds of 17/1 and 16/1 for the 3-2 Berrettini upset in the Set Betting market make more appeal than 6/1 for the match.
Barbora Strycova v Elise Mertens
Barbora Strycova is a streaky player – and she’s on a good streak right now. If she pulls off the underdog win today then it’s likely to be in straight sets, continuing her run of three 2-0 victories through the opening three rounds here…
Five of Strycova’s six grass court wins this season and eight of her last nine victories overall have come in straight sets.
Eight of Mertens’ last nine Grand Slam exits have been 2-0, and the Belgian may wilt as favourite against the fierce competitive spirit (and histrionics) of the pumped-up Czech on the other side of the net…
Strycova is the 6/5 (2.20) match underdog. Odds of 11/4 (3.75) and 5/2+ (3.50+) appeal for the 2-0 score.
Today’s bets:
Set Betting:
BET: Guido Pella to beat Milos Raonic 3-2 @ 13/1
BOOKIES: 13/1 (14.00) 888 Sport, Unibet, 12/1 (13.00) Marathonbet, 11/1 (12.00) Ladbrokes, Bet365, BetVictor, Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power
BET: Matteo Berrettini to beat Roger Federer 3-2 @ 17/1
BOOKIES: 17/1 (18.00) Marathonbet, 16/1 (17.00) Skybet, 888 Sport, Unibet
BET: Barbora Strycova to beat Elise Mertens 2-0 @ 11/4
BOOKIES: 11/4 (3.75) Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power, 27/10 (3.70) William Hill, 13/5 (3.60) 888 Sport, Unibet, Boylesports, 5/2 (3.50) Bet365, Skybet
I’ll be back at 8am Tuesday with your Bets of the Day email for the Women’s Quarter Finals.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson