Tennis Betting Advice - July 2019

Wimbledon: Women’s Quarter Finals – 2/1 and 8/1 picks…

Tuesday 9th July 2019

Wimbledon - Bets of the Day

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • 200/1 Querrey in the last 8…
  • Women’s Quarter Finals…
  • Play starts 1pm…

Good morning and welcome to Day Nine of your Wimbledon 2019 daily service.

Last man standing…

We said Manic Monday might have a few shocks – and so it proved with the two favourites for the Women’s title both knocked out. World No.1 Ashleigh Barty lost to 5/1 shot Alison Riske. World No.3 Karolina Pliskova was beaten by 5/1 outsider Karolina Muchova.

With the quarter final draw looking wide open (see below), it was a shame to see our two remaining Women’s Outright Winner picks miss the boat. Petra Martic and Dayana Yastemska both had medical timeouts in their matches. They put up a good fight, but we didn’t get the big one through to the business end this time.

In the Men’s, 200/1 Sam Querrey is our last man standing in the tournament. Big Sam served his way through his 4th Round match yesterday. He’s now 40/1 for the title, and will face World No.2 Rafael Nadal in the quarter finals tomorrow.

We’ve been aggressive with our match picks. That tactic paid off yesterday with underdog Guido Pella coming from two sets down to beat Milos Raonic, landing our 3-2 Set Betting pick at 13/1.

Women’s Quarter Finals…

Today is Women’s Quarter Finals day. Here’s are the match-ups (day one Outright Winner top price in brackets):

Alison Riske (200/1) v Serena Williams (8/1)

Simona Halep (18/1) v Shuai Zhang (1,500/1)

Barbora Strycova (500/1) v Johanna Konta (25/1)

Elina Svitolina (100/1) v Karolina Muchova (1,500/1)

Some absolutely whopping prices there. Just like at the French Open a month ago, we have a Women’s Grand Slam quarter final line-up peppered with first-timers and outsiders…

Serena is the only one of the last eight to have reached this stage at Wimbledon last year. Serena and Konta are the only two to have got past this stage at Wimbledon before.

Riske and Muchova are making their first ever appearance in a Grand Slam quarter final.

Halep has never been past the quarters at Wimbledon. Svitolina, Strycova and Zhang have never been past the quarter finals at any Grand Slam.

Here’s an interesting stat to consider in the Set Betting markets:

  • So far this season, 10 out of 12 Women’s Grand Slam quarter final matches have been settled in straight sets, 2-0 (83%)
  • Since the start of last year, 18 out of 24 Women’s Grand Slam quarter final matches have been settled in straight sets, 2-0 (75%)

I don’t have a solid explanation but for that 2-0 trend. But I would point to a combination of nerves and anti-climatic performances from outsiders that run out of the stream in the quarter finals – and/ or winning players streaking in form.

Looking at today’s markets & prices…

Three picks for us today:

Svitolina has never got past the quarter finals at a Grand Slam. This is the stage where she usually falters. Three of the Ukrainian’s four previous Grand Slam exits have ended in a 2-0 defeat. Muchova had an epic match yesterday in taking out World No.3 Pliskova, 2-1. Judging by the way Muchova was smiling and engaging in the drama yesterday afternoon, I’d say the nerves & pressure might show more from Svitolina today. Muchova for the upset win at 2/1 (3.00).

Konta means business lately. After a great run to the French Open semi finals, she’s delivering here at her home Slam, too. We’ve seen nerves stifle Jo’s game before, but I think any major wobble is more likely to come in the semi finals, should she get there. Konta has won three out of four previous Grand Slam quarter finals. The Brit is 2/5 (1.40) for the match but I’m going for the double-your-money price on the straight sets, 2-0 win at Evens+ (2.00+).

Riske is a grass court specialist and has won two titles on the turf this season, one on the lower-tier ITF Tour at Surbiton, followed up with a trophy win at full WTA Tour level in ‘s-Hertogenbosch. For the season, the American has a 14-1 match win-loss record on grass. She’s never played Serena before and that lack of mental baggage can help her out here. Serena is the favourite of course but Riske is in the form of her life and looking confident. Riske is 3/1 (4.00) for the match. She has won through every round 2-1 so far and that option stands out as the underdog bet of the day at 8/1 (9.00) and 7/1+ (8.00+) in the Set Betting market.

Today’s bets:

Match Winner:

BET: Karolina Muchova to beat Elina Svitolina @ 2/1
BOOKIES: 2/1 (3.00) Bet365, BetVictor

Latest odds here

Set Betting:

BET: Johanna Konta to beat Barbora Strycova 2-0 @ 11/10
BOOKIES: 11/10 (2.10) Bet365, Evens (2.00) Skybet, Boylesports, 888 Sport, Unibet, Betfair Sportsbook, NetBet, 10Bet

Latest odds here

BET: Alison Riske to beat Serena Williams 2-1 @ 8/1
BOOKIES: 8/1 (9.00) Bet365, 15/2 (8.50) Marathonbet, 7/1 (8.00) Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, 888 Sport, Unibet, NetBet, 10Bet

Latest odds here

I’ll be back at 8am Wednesday with your Bets of the Day email for the Men’s Quarter Finals.

  • If you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’m on hand via email. You can message me at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch