Tennis Betting Advice - July 2021

Wimbledon – Day 10: A big day on Centre Court at 25/1…

Thursday 8th July 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • Wimbledon Day 10…
  • Women’s Semi Finals…
  • Three-set value…

Good morning and welcome to Day 10 of your Wimbledon 2021 service.

Hurkacz beats Federer…

A great night yesterday – and not just because of the football…

Hubert Hurkacz beat Roger Federer in straight sets on Centre Court. Is there a better way to announce yourself on the big stage? The 24-year-old was a deserved winner, simply too good for the eight-time Wimbledon champion.

Before this week, nobody apart from us was talking about Hurkacz. He’s now through to a debut Grand Slam semi final. In that respect, the Pole has already joined the ranks of some of our Ones to Watch big hits from years gone by. And Hubert is not done yet. He plays Matteo Berrettini on Friday, for a place in the final…

On the betting front, Hurkacz has already landed us a 5/1 match bet in beating world no.2 Daniil Medvedev in the 4th round. And yesterday’s quarter final victory over Federer secured a 16/1 payout from our 4th Quarter Winner pick.

With odds of 200/1, 150/1 or 100/1 in the Outright Winner book, Each Way. And place terms of 1/2 odds for reaching the final. That means we’re sitting on a great ticket ahead of tomorrow’s semi final. Hubert is one match win away from landing a 50/1+ payout.

In this morning’s updated Outright market, the bookies now make Hurkacz 10/1 to go all the way and win the title.

As we always say with our big-odds picks – it only takes one. This year at Wimbledon, Hubert Hurkacz is that player. So far, he’s won five matches, and four of them in straight sets, 3-0. The story is not over yet. But already, Hubert has done us proud.

A schoolboy error…

Apologies if you’ve emailed me recently and not had a reply. I’ve just realised that there are some messages in my Junk folder. I made the schoolboy error of not checking that folder during the tournament until now. My apologies. I shall be slapping myself on the back of the hand with a ruler – and then replying to each one this later this morning.

Women’s Semi Finals…

It’s women’s semi finals day today. Here’s the line-up, with their pre-tournament Outright Winner prices in brackets:

Centre Court, 1.30pm

Ashleigh Barty (7/1) v Angelique Kerber (40/1)

Followed by

Karolina Pliskova (50/1) v Aryna Sabalenka (11/1)

Sabalenka in the book for New York…

Back in January, we got on Aryna Sabalenka as an early-bird pick for the US Open, bagging odds of 28/1, 25/1, and 22/1. I’m happy with how that 2021 ante post selection is shaping up…

Hard courts are Sabalenka’s no.1 most dangerous surface. In-between the Australian Open and next month’s upcoming US Open, we’ve had the French Open on clay, and of course now Wimbledon on the grass. As anticipated back in January:

“Odds of 28/1, 25/1, and 20/1+ for the year’s other hard-court Slam, the US Open, look well worth getting in the book…

If 2021 does prove to the year that Sabalenka makes the step up at Major level, then by the time New York rolls around at the end of the summer, Aryna could be trading at 10/1 or even shorter.”

Sabalenka has indeed continued to make a name for herself, and that has seen her US Open price trimmed. The Belarusian – through to a first Grand Slam semi final this week at Wimbledon – is now down to 16/1, 14/1, and 12/1 for the US Open.

A big day on Centre Court…

Back to today’s SW19 semis, here are the Match Winner prices:

Barty 4/9 (1.44) – Kerber 15/8 (2.88)

Pliskova 7/4 (2.75) – Sabalenka 4/9 (1.44)

In terms of Grand Slam experience, Barty, Kerber, and Pliskova have all played in Major semi finals before. With Kerber the only one to have done so – and won – here at Wimbledon.

  • The career head-to-heads have Kerber 3-2 up v Barty. This will be their first meeting on grass
  • Sabalenka has a 2-0 head-to-head record v Pliskova, including a win on grass. Both meetings went the distance to 3 Sets

Those head-to-heads tell us things could be close today. That was my gut feeling before even looking into the stats, too…

Three-set value…

I’m prepared to go against the Wimbledon history books here:

Eleven of the last 12 Wimbledon women’s semi finals have been settled in straight sets, 2-0. All four of this week’s quarter finals were also done & dusted in two sets.

I’m expecting a big day of tennis on Centre Court. Nerves, drama, comebacks, maybe even a tiebreak or two. As we’ve commented many times before, a three-set women’s match often plays into our hands in the quest for value. I like these prices today:

Total Sets – a double on both matches to go to 3 Sets (or ‘Over 2.5 Sets’) pays 11/2 (6.5) or 5/1 (6.0).

Set Betting Kerber to win 2-1 is 11/2 (6.5) or 5/1 (6.0). Sabalenka to win 2-1 is 16/5 (4.2) or 3/1 (4.0).

And for a speculative, exciting bet – I’m also putting those two 2-1 scores in a double, with a juicy 25/1 on offer.

Kerber has been here and done it all before, and we’ve seen nerves stifle Barty in big semi finals before. Sabalenka is a relentless hitter and can be expected to carry the fight all the way against Pliskova, even if there are bumps and dips along the road.

Ones to Watch – Wimbledon

Women’s Semi Finals:

Ashleigh Barty v Angelique Kerber
Karolina Pliskova v Aryna Sabalenka

  • Total Sets – DOUBLE: both matches to go to 3 Sets @ 11/2 Ladbrokes, Coral, 5/1 Bet365, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, 10Bet, MansionBet, Sportingbet, Bwin
  • Set Betting: Kerber to win 2-1 @ 11/2 BetVictor, 5/1 Bet365, William Hill, Unibet
  • Set Betting: Sabalenka to win 2-1 @ 16/5 Boylesports, 3/1 Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Sportingbet, Bwin
  • Set Betting – DOUBLE: Kerber 2-1 & Sabalenka 2-1 @ 25/1 BetVictor, 23/1 Bet365, William Hill

I’ll be back tomorrow morning with your Wimbledon Day 11 email and analysis. Friday is men’s semi finals day.


Over at the WTA Hamburg event on clay, Dayana Yastremska makes her long-awaited comeback this afternoon. The bookies have her priced as the favourite to beat Magdalena Frech…

This is the 21-year-old Ukrainian’s first match on the tour since November last year. Doping suspension now lifted – and cleared of any wrongdoing – Yastremska is now free to play again. I will be keeping a close eye on her form as she sets out to re-establish herself in the sport.

Yastremska v Frech will be shown live on Amazon Prime Video at 5pm+ today. Wimbledon is on the BBC.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch