Tennis Betting Advice - July 2021

Wimbledon: 10/1 for a Tie in the Women’s Final…

Saturday 10th July 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • Wimbledon Day 12…
  • Women’s Final…
  • Barty v Pliskova…

Good morning and welcome to Day 12 of your Wimbledon 2021 service.

It wasn’t to be for Hubert Hurkacz yesterday. Our 100/1+ men’s outsider did us very proud by winning his quarter of the draw and reaching the semi finals. But Matteo Berrettini was the better player on the day. The Italian progresses to a debut Grand Slam final, where he’ll take on world no.1 Novak Djokovic on Sunday.

Women’s Final – Barty v Pliskova…

There’s another world no.1 in the finals today. Former Wimbledon Girls’ champion Ashleigh Barty is looking to become the fourth woman in history to turn the Junior SW19 title into a Senior one.

Barty has reached one Grand Slam final before, winning the French Open in 2019.

There is guaranteed to be a new name on the trophy today…

Former world no.1 Karolina Pliskova is also contending her first Wimbledon final, and her second ‘Slam championship match overall. In 2016, Pliskova finished runner-up at the US Open (as a 33/1 Each Way pick for this column).

Barty’s Roland Garros triumph was a very comfortable 6-1, 6-3 against a young and nervous Marketa Vondrousova.

In her US Open final, Pliskova pushed Angelique Kerber to three sets, and actually had a 3-1 lead in the decider before the German turned it around. Kerber’s New York win took her to no.1 in the world that season.

Karolina has struggled for any kind of consistent Major form since. But alongside current coach Sascha Bajin – the man who worked with Naomi Osaka when she won her debut Grand Slam – the big-serving Czech now has another shot at a career-defining trophy win.

Barty is the favourite today, as you’d expect from a match-up that pits the world no.1 against the current no.13. The Australian is 2/5 (1.4) to win, across the boards. Pliskova is the 2/1 (3.0) underdog.

The head-to-head is 5-2 to Ash, with the last two meetings going to three sets – and Barty coming from behind to win on both occasions: 2-6, 6-1, 7-5 on clay at Stuttgart last year. And 4-6, 6-2, 6-3 on hard courts at the end-of-season WTA Finals in 2019.

In finals, Barty has a good record. The 25-year-old has won seven of her last 10 completed sets in championship matches.

Since that US Open final defeat in 2016, Pliskova has contested a total of 14 finals at WTA Tour level, and 12 of them have been done & dusted in two sets. One of those 2-0 results was a 7-6, 6-3 loss to Barty in the Miami final in 2019.

  • The last 7 women’s Wimbledon finals have all been settled in 2 Sets. The favourite has prevailed 2-0 in 4 of them. The last two have seen the pre-match underdog win in straight sets – with Simona Halep (2019) and Kerber (2018) both beating Serena Williams, 2-0

In today’s Set Betting market, Barty is the Even-money (2.0) favourite to win 2-0. Pliskova is 9/2 (5.5) to pull off a straight-sets upset.

Serving stats…

Pliskova has served the Most Aces in the tournament (54), but also the Most Double Faults (30).

Barty isn’t far behind in both departments, with 46 Aces and 25 Double Faults.

In their last four meetings, Barty has got the Most Aces. The Aussie hasn’t served the Most Double Faults in any of their last five encounters (three for Pliskova, and two Double Fault ‘ties’).

On Wimbledon 2021 form, Pliskova for the Most Aces would be the justified favourite in the betting today, at a best price 4/5 (1.8) with Skybet. However, on the head-to-head, four Ace wins in a row against the Czech suggests 5/4 (2.25) for Barty might be the value. That said, Pliskova has been serving as good as she ever has this fortnight. In other words – the tally could end up being very close today…

So far at this tournament:

  • Pliskova average Aces per set = 4.15
  • Barty average Aces per Set = 3.54

And the Double Faults figures come out close, too:

  • Pliskova average Double Faults per set = 2.3
  • Barty average Double Faults per Set = 1.92

Double Faults tallies in last three rounds for Pliskova: 4-4, 3-3, 6-5. And in Barty’s last three matches: 4-3, 4-2, 5-4.

As an off-the-beaten track betting angle for today’s final, I like the prices for a couple of serving-stat ‘draws’…

Barty & Pliskova are two of the best servers in the women’s game. And their numbers are closely matched on the double-faults front, too.

We can get 13/2 (7.5) for the Double Faults tally to end all-square. And 10/1 (11.0) for a tie on the Aces. Those odds make for a couple of appealing bets that can keep us entertained for the duration of the match.

Ones to Watch – Wimbledon

Barty v Pliskova – 2pm, BBC One

  • Most Aces – Tie @ 10/1 Bet365, 10Bet, Sportingbet, Bwin, 9/1 Skybet
  • Most Double Faults – Tie @ 13/2 Bet365, Skybet, 10Bet, Sportingbet, Bwin

I’ll be back on Sunday morning with your Wimbledon Day 13 email, previewing the men’s final, Novak Djokovic v Matteo Berrettini.

My email address if you want to get in touch:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch