Tennis Betting Advice - July 2021

Wimbledon – Day 6: 43/1 for a Super Saturday…

Saturday 3rd July 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • Wimbledon Day 6…
  • Play starts 11am…
  • 3-Set and 5-Set picks…

Good morning and welcome to Day 6 of your Wimbledon 2021 service.

“She is the disruptor”…

That’s what BBC commentator Sam Smith said about Ons Jabeur yesterday. The Tunisian broke new ground at Wimbledon, knocking out former champion Garbine Muguruza in a brilliant three-set match, and reaching the 4th round for the first time.

With an exciting blend of power and drop-shots, slices and lobs, Jabeur won over the Centre Court crowd, and goes into week two with plenty of good vibes. Our 40/1 shot is now 14/1 to go all the way. What a story that would be.

The latest chapter of our Sloane Stephens saga ended up being a short one. The 40/1 American was taken out in three sets by the streaking Ludmilla Samsonova. Elsewhere in our Outright Winner book, 100/1+ men’s outsider selection Roberto Bautista-Agut continues to quietly impress and move through the draw, winning 3-0 on Friday to move into the 4th round and next week’s ‘Manic Monday’ schedule.

Our Wimbledon Outright book as it stands:

  • Karolina Muchova 50/1 (ante post), 33/1 this week
  • Ons Jabeur 40/1
  • Katerina Siniakova 100/1+
  • Roberto Bautista-Agut 100/1+
  • Felix Auger-Aliassime 66/1
  • Hubert Hurkacz 100/1+

3-Set battles in the women’s…

Muchova plays today, taking on recent French Open runner-up Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. The bookmakers have our player as the 8/11 (1.73) favourite to progress. Five of Muchova’s last nine matches have gone to 3 Sets, and their last encounter almost went that way, with Pavlyuchenkova prevailing in two tiebreaks, 7-6, 7-6. This one is on my list as 3-Set battle today.

Siniakova gets a shot at world no.1 Ash Barty. That was the plan when getting the 25-year-old Czech in the book at 100/1+ earlier this week. That’s scheduled as the last match on Centre Court today – top billing, and a big stage. And I reckon it’s Barty that will be the most nervous. The Aussie hasn’t quite been at her best for a few weeks now, pulling out of the French Open injured, and not playing in any warm-up events on grass.

Siniakova plays a lot of tennis, singles & doubles, and looks in fine fettle. She reached the final at WTA Bad Homburg on grass last month. I like her attitude. Katerina will go into this match thinking she can win. That’s not something you can say about every player ranked outside the Top 50. At odds of 3/1+, I’m backing her to cause an upset.

This is their first meeting, and that also bodes well for the underdog, with no previous mental baggage. It could take Barty a while to figure Siniakova out, and for that reason I also have this match down as a 3-Set contender.

Magda Linette is having a great run so far. Returning from knee surgery earlier this year, and switching to a new coach. The Pole is now playing some exciting attacking tennis again. Today’s clash with the big-hitting Spaniard, Paula Badosa, should be fun. And it’s hard not to see this one going to the full 3 Sets. Both women will leave it all out on court. Linette came from a set down to beat Amanda Anisimova in round one, her third 3-Setter in four matches. Five of Badosa’s last six have gone all the way to a deciding set. This is their first meeting, and it’s a big chance for one of them to move into week two of Wimbledon.

  • In the Total Sets market, I’m putting those three women’s 3-Set picks in a Trixie. That’s made up of three doubles and a treble, with the treble worth 17/1

5-Set epics in the men’s…

We came close with a big-odds attempt at three men’s matches to go 5 Sets on Thursday. I think there’s a big winner to be found in these markets, and today I’m playing the three tightest matches in the men’s, according to the bookies’ Match Winner odds:

Hubert Hurkacz v Alexander Bublik. This is a big match for these two 24-year-olds. Neither have reached the 4th round of a Grand Slam before. Someone will make the breakthrough today.

Felix Auger-Aliassime v Nick Kyrgios. A great match in store here. Auger-Aliassime is calm and clean-cut. Kyrgios is an entertainer, and loves the big crowd. Both are incredibly talented. The bookies have Felix as more likely to win the match, at odds-on in the Match Winner betting. But at 33/1, Nick is a half the price of the Canadian (66/1) to win the tournament. That’s an indicator that this could be close – and also that if Felix gets through today, we’ve got value on our side.

These two have played once before on grass, on an outer court at Queen’s Club in 2019. I watched that match, and it summed up their characters – Felix calm and focused, Kyrgios ranting, mumbling, and sometimes just messing around. Nick has actually matured a lot since then, and is more pantomime villain these days – if that. There’ll be a loud crowd on Court One this afternoon, and this one really has the recipe to be a classic. That Queen’s Club match ended 6-7, 7-6, 7-5 to Auger-Aliassime. Expect a similarly tight score-line today.

Ilya Ivashka v Jordan Thompson. Two 27-year-olds looking to make this the tournament of their career. By reaching the 3rd round, Ivashka is already having his best ever Grand Slam. Thompson made the 4th round once before at the US Open. This is the world no.79 v no.78. If it’s as close as the rankings say, then we could see a scoreboard emulating their one previous encounter, which came at a lower-tier ATP Challenger event on clay in 2017. Back then, the Belarusian won the first set, before Australian Thompson came back to win it in a final-set tiebreak: 5-7, 6-3, 7-6. Hard to read too much into that match now perhaps, but there are plenty of signs that this one will be played out like a final for both men. And it could go to the wire.

As with before, I’m going for the Trixie on 5 Sets in the Total Sets markets. The treble pays a standout 43/1 with Bet365.

Ones to Watch – Wimbledon

  • Match Winner: Katerina Siniakova to beat Ash Barty @ 10/3 (4.33) Bet365, BetVictor, 16/5 (4.2) Boylesports, William Hill, 3/1 (4.0) Betway
  • Total Sets – TRIXIE: 3 women’s matches listed above to go to 3 Sets – best prices with BetVictor (17/1 for the Treble), Skybet (15/1 the treble), Bet365 (14/1)
  • Total Sets – TRIXIE: 3 men’s matches listed above to go to 5 Sets – best prices with Bet365 (43/1 for the Treble), Ladbrokes, Coral (36/1 the treble), William Hill, Betway (35/1)

Play starts 11am.

There’s no play on the middle Sunday. I’ll be back on Monday morning with your Wimbledon Day 7 email.

You can email me during the tournament at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch