Tennis Betting Advice - July 2021
Wimbledon – Day 7: Manic Monday picks at 5/1 and 9/1…
Monday 5th July 2021
In Ones to Watch today:
Good morning and welcome to Day 7 of your Wimbledon 2021 service.
It’s Manic Monday. Some call it the best day on the tennis calendar…
The entire men’s & women’s 4th Round is packed into one day. That’s a total of 16 matches. With each player fighting for a prestigious reward: a place in the Wimbledon Quarter Finals…
Five players flying the flag…
Over the course of the tournament so far, I’ve put up 10 players in the Outright Winner markets. From a starting pack of 256 names across the men’s & women’s events combined, that means we covered a modest 4% of the field.
Going into the Last 16 ties, we’ve got five players still in the running. Accounting for 16% of the competitors left in the hat:
Women:
Men:
I also flagged up those five players to win their respective Quarters of the draw. Our runners are each two match wins away from achieving that goal (4th Round, and then the Quarter Finals):
Women:
Men:
With those five players flying the Ones to Watch flag in the 4th Round, today is a big day for our picks. Week Two of a Grand Slam is when things get exciting…
Here’s today’s schedule for our players, and the bookies’ Match Winner prices:
Women:
Karolina Muchova v Paula Badosa
Match Winner odds: Muchova 4/6 (1.67), Badosa 11/8 (2.38)
Ons Jabeur v Iga Swiatek
Match Winner odds: Jabeur 11/10 (2.1), Swiatek 8/11 (1.73)
Men:
Roberto Bautista-Agut v Denis Shapovalov
Match Winner odds: Bautista-Agut 6/5 (2.2), Shapovalov 4/6 (1.67)
Felix Auger-Aliassime v Alexander Zverev
Match Winner odds: Auger-Aliassime 11/4 (3.75), Zverev 2/7 (1.29)
Hubert Hurkacz v Daniil Medvedev
Match Winner odds: Hurkacz 5/1 (6.0), Medvedev 1/7 (1.14)
Hubert under the radar at 5/1…
Barring Muchova, our players are all priced up as the underdogs today. That’s to be expected. This is what we do here at Ones to Watch. We look to identify appealing outsiders at attractive odds.
In terms of the Match Winner betting, the price that jumps out to me as value is Hurkacz at 5/1 to beat Medvedev…
Granted, the World No.2 was always going to be priced up as the favourite here. But Medvedev had to come from two sets to nil down to beat the veteran Marin Cilic, 3-2 in the last round. And while some are signalling that win as a momentum catalyst for the Russian, I’m taking the angle that it shows Medvedev can be vulnerable.
Hurkacz is the only player in the tournament yet to lose his serve. He’s won 42 out of 42 service games. He’s also the only man to have won all three of his matches in straight sets, 3-0. As with his 100/1 tournament win at the ATP 1000 Miami Masters this spring, Hubert has been gliding through the draw, with calm, clean, and quietly impressive tennis. I say quietly, because it seems nobody but us is talking about him. Again, that’s okay. This is normal for Ones to Watch.
I’ve been doing this long enough to know that when a price catches my eye like this, it can mean something. It doesn’t mean he’ll beat the World No.2 today. But odds of 5/1 make for a great underdog bet.
Sonego for the surprise…
Elsewhere on the Manic Monday schedule, the match between Roger Federer and Lorenzo Sonego could be a cracker…
Obviously, Federer is the favourite, and no-one is more at home on Centre Court than the eight-time Wimbledon champion. But Roger, who turns 40 this year, is not at his peak level right now. He’s so good, that he can win most matches without needing to be in top gear. But any dip today, and his young Italian opponent will smell blood…
Sonego is exciting to watch, expressive with his body language, and in possession of some fierce ground-strokes. He won’t fear Federer. He’ll be looking to thunder down as many winners as he can.
When they met at the French Open back in 2019, Federer won 3-0. I’m expecting a much closer match this time. The 26-year-old is now a Top 30 player, and has won his first two ATP titles since that meeting in Paris – including one on grass. In this summer’s Wimbledon warm-up, Sonego also finished runner-up on grass at Eastbourne. This guy can play. And he backs himself. He’s beaten the likes of Andrey Rublev and Dominic Thiem this season – both Top 10 players.
Odds of 3/1 show that the bookmakers don’t think a shock here would be too outrageous. Always keen to work a groove for the best possible price, the 3-2 outcome in the Set Betting market is the bet for me…
Federer is hard to beat at a Grand Slam. He’s rarely well beaten. In fact, just two of Roger’s 10 Grand Slam defeats have been in straight sets, 3-0 – and they were against his fellow big boys, Djokovic & Rafael Nadal.
Four of the Swiss star’s last 10 losses in Majors required opponents to take him out in the full five sets – and three of those came here at Wimbledon. Beaten 3-2 by both Milos Raonic and Kevin Anderson, and also 3-2 in the final by Djokovic.
If Federer falls today, then 3-2 to Sonego is the call at odds of 9/1.
Korda at 66/1…
When it comes to the Grand Slams, it’s usually the women’s Outright Winner market that get the most attention in our quest for the big odds. That’s also been the case so far here at Wimbledon 2021, with my women’s picks outnumbering the men, seven to three.
Looking at the current tournament prices this morning though, on the eve of the 4th Round. There’s one man that stands out for me, and that’s our Ones to Watch in 2021 youngster, Sebastian Korda…
The 21-year-old American has already announced himself on the main tour this season, reaching two ATP finals and winning a maiden title. Korda was one of the most impressive performers in Week One, and can continue his Wimbledon breakthrough by beating Karen Khachanov today. That would set up a quarter final against either Shapovalov or our 100/1+ pick, Bautista-Agut.
I’m backing him to beat Khachanov at Evens, and at 66/1 as an outsider for the title. Korda’s sister Nelly recently won a maiden Major title on the women’s golf tour. Seb has spoken about taking inspiration from that – and this fast-rising youngster can really make a mark here at SW19.
Ones to Watch – Wimbledon
Match Winner:
Set Betting:
Men’s Outright Winner – Each Way:
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places with the bookies listed.
Play starts 11am.
I’ll be back tomorrow morning with your Day 8 email and analysis.
P.S
Want to get in touch? You can email me at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson