Tennis Betting Advice - July 2021

Wimbledon – Day 4: Match Winner picks and multiples…

Thursday 1st July 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • Wimbledon Day 4 – play starts 11am…
  • 100/1 outsider…
  • Match Winner picks and multiples…

Good morning and welcome to Day 4 of your Wimbledon 2021 service. I’m getting into the match markets today, with an appealing day of tennis ahead of us. Plus, I’m flagging up Katerina Siniakova as a 100/1 outsider for the women’s title…

5-Set potential at 47/1…

Tuesday’s completed men’s matches saw no fewer than 11 out of 39 encounters go the distance to five sets. That’s a high figure, and the trend for long battles could continue today. Here are three match-ups that fit the bill:

Cristian Garin v Marc Polmans – Total Sets: 5 @ 11/4 (3.75)

  • 3 of Polmans’ last 6 Grand Slam main draw matches have been 5-setters. In Wimbledon Qualifying last week, the Australian won his final-round match, 3-2
  • Garin had a 3-2 win in the 1st round – 5 of his last 10 Grand Slam matches have now gone to 5 Sets
  • Garin beat Polmans 3-1 in a close 2nd round tie at the French Open last year – including a couple of tiebreak (7-6) sets that could’ve gone either way

Pedro Martinez v Gael Monfils – Total Sets: 5 @ 11/4 (3.75)

  • Monfils rarely makes life easy for himself. The flamboyant Frenchman had a 3-2 win in round one. Two of his last 4 Grand Slam matches have paid out on 5 Sets – and none of his last 5 at this level have been settled in straight sets
  • Martinez will likely get a few chances today, and give up plenty of his own, too – 4 of his last 6 best-of-5-set outings have seen both players win a set

Taylor Fritz v Steve Johnson – Total Sets: 5 @ 5/2 (3.5)

  • This all-American clash has plenty of ingredients to go the distance. Fritz is the favourite, but not long back from injury. Johnson has the better career record at Wimbledon, and has won his last 3 matches against Fritz
  • 3 of Johnson’s last 7 Grand Slam matches have ended in 3-2 score-lines, earning him the ‘marathon man’ nickname at the French Open this year, with a pair of epic 5-setters, back-to-back

I’m playing those three 5-Set selections in a Trixie (three Doubles and a Treble). Any two over the line generates a 12/1 payout. And the full house is worth 47/1.

Day 4 – Match Winner picks…

There are over 30 matches on the Thursday schedule. With the odds and match-ups in mind, I’ve got a combination of multiples to play today…

In terms of putting faith in favourites, these six get the Match Winner nod from me:

  • Barbora Krejcikova to beat Andrea Petkovic – French Open champ is on a 13-match winning streak
  • Sam Querrey to beat James Duckworth – former Wimbledon semi-finalist Querrey is at his best on grass. He beat Duckworth 2-0 on the turf in Stuttgart last month, and also made the finals in Mallorca
  • Kei Nishikori to beat Jordan Thompson – Nishikori’s late-career comeback continues to quietly build momentum. He won 3-0 in the 1st round, and has made the quarter finals on his last two visits to the All England Club
  • Cameron Norrie to beat Alex Bolt – Cam Norrie is having a career-best season, reaching three finals. He’s won 11 of his last 14 matches
  • Marin Cilic to beat Benjamin Bonzi – like Querrey, the 32-year-old Cilic is an old hand on the SW19 courts, with a big-serving game suited to these courts. Marin was Wimbledon runner-up in 2017. His grass-court match record so far this summer is played 9 won 8
  • Hubert Hurkacz to beat Marcos Giron – Hurkacz is in our Outright Winner book as a 100/1 outsider. Giron is a worthy competitor, but Hubert is the younger of the two and his potential top level is much higher. As it stands, the Pole is already higher ranked

That 6-fold Match Winner acca pays a solid 4/1 (5.0), with a top-price 9/2 (5.5) at William Hill.

And with some bigger individual match prices – including two underdogs in the mix, Bublik & Chardy – I also like these five today:

  • Alexander Bublik to beat Grigor Dimitrov – Bublik is having a good season, and will fancy his chances of out-serving the classy but inconsistent Dimitrov
  • Jeremy Chardy to beat Ilya Ivashka – Chardy is having something of a late-career resurgence, winning plenty of matches, serving well, and raising his game in tight moments such as tiebreaks. Priced as the underdog, the Frenchman is the value in this one
  • Katerina Siniakova to beat Coco Vandweghe – I unsuccessfully opposed Coco yesterday, but the in-form Siniakova looks dangerous right now. In fact, whisper it quietly, but I even feel she has the potential to emulate her fellow 25-year-old Doubles-playing Czech, Barbora Krejcikova, and transfer her success over to the Singles game. That said, I’m adding Siniakova to the Outright Winner book at 100/1+. Odds that will be great to have onside if she gets a shot at world no.1 Ash Barty in the next round. Katerina is 5-1 on grass this summer, reaching the final at WTA Bad Homburg
  • Jelena Ostapenko to beat Daria Kasatkina – 2018 Wimbledon semi-finalist Ostapenko won WTA Eastbourne last week, and is 7-1 on grass this season. The Latvian has won her two previous meetings v Kasatkina on grass. This might take three sets, but form and momentum is with Ostapenko
  • Kaja Juvan to beat Clara Burel – two youngsters here, with the betting around 50-50. Juvan beat the fancied Belinda Bencic in round one, and I’m backing her to keep it going in this battle of the 20-year-olds

The 5-fold Match Winner acca pays 19/1.

Ones to Watch – Wimbledon

  • Total Sets – TRIXIE: 3 men’s matches listed above to go to 5 Sets – best prices with Bet365 (47/1 for the Treble), William Hill, Betway (44/1 for the Treble)
  • Match Winner – 6-fold ACCA: Krejcikova, Querrey, Nishikori, Norrie, Cilic & Hurkacz to win @ 9/2 William Hill, 4/1 Bet365, BetVictor
  • Match Winner – 5-fold ACCA: Bublik, Chardy, Siniakova, Ostapenko & Juvan to win @ 19/1 Bet365, BetVictor, 18/1 William Hill
  • Women’s Outright Winner – Each Way: Katerina Siniakova @ 125/1 Unibet, 100/1 Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, Betfred, Betway, Boylesports

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

Play starts from 11am.

I’ll be back with your Wimbledon Day 5 email on Friday at 8.30am.

You can email me during the tournament at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch