Tennis Betting Advice - July 2021

Wimbledon – Day 5: Stephens is value at 40/1…

Friday 2nd July 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • Wimbledon Day 5…
  • Our Outright Winner book…
  • Hello, old friend…

Good morning and welcome to Day 5 of your Wimbledon 2021 service.

We came close to a big win yesterday. And if we’re in the right ballpark, then we’re doing something right…

6-fold Match Winner acca at 4/1 – 4 out of 6

5-fold Match Winner acca at 18/1 – 4 out of 5

I don’t know how closely you followed yesterday’s match score-lines. But to illustrate the ‘near miss’ nature of our 5 Sets Trixie, here are those scores in full. If one of these 4th-set tiebreaks had gone the other way, a 12/1 double would’ve landed. If both 7-6 scores had been the other way, it would’ve clicked for the full 47/1 treble:

Garin beat Polmans 7-6, 6-2, 2-6, 7-6 (4 Sets - lost)
Martinez beat Gael Monfils 6-3, 6-4, 4-6, 7-6 – (4 Sets – lost)
Fritz beat Johnson 6-4, 7-6, 4-6, 6-7, 6-4 – (5 Set – won)

If you’re a long-time follower, then you’ll know I don’t play the ‘it was a near miss’ card very often. But those matches really were close!

Pat Cash knows…

The BBC don’t always get in right with their sports shows. But Clare Balding’s Today at Wimbledon is a success. And as Clare, Boris Becker, and Pat Cash broadcasted from the top of Henman Hill last night, with the Centre Court sunset behind them – Cash made a comment that I couldn’t agree with more…

Declaring that ‘any of 50’ women could win a Grand Slam – and any woman left in the draw in week two can win Wimbledon…

Week two means the 4th round, AKA the Last 16. The 3rd round kicks off today, with 32 players left in the hat. In the women’s Outright Winner market, we have three of our six picks still standing:

  • Karolina Muchova 50/1 (ante post), 33/1 this week
  • Ons Jabeur 40/1
  • Katerina Siniakova 100/1+

In the men’s event, we have all three of our big-odds, Each Way outsider selections through to the Last 32:

  • Roberto Bautista-Agut 100/1+
  • Felix Auger-Aliassime 66/1
  • Hubert Hurkacz 100/1+

Two players in action on Day 5…

That’s a decent underdog book to have in our pocket. As we approach the middle weekend, the pressure gets ramped up a notch. There are some big matches coming up for our players, with a place in week two of Wimbledon a big deal. Especially in the women’s event where, as Pat Cash so rightly points out – anyone can win it…

On today’s schedule, Jabeur takes on 2017 Wimbledon champion, Garbine Muguruza. The Spaniard is currently in with the favourites, at 12/1 or shorter for the title. The head-to-head is 1-0 to Muguruza. But that match, played on hard courts in Hobart last year, went to a final-set tiebreak: 6-3, 3-6, 7-6.

Since that meeting, Jabeur has improved her consistency and numbers – rising to a current career-high of no.24 in the world, and winning a maiden WTA title, on grass in Birmingham.

For today’s match, the bookmakers have our player at around 11/8 (2.38). Odds that suggest a win for Jabeur would not register as huge shock, even if the media were to report it that way.

Muchova and Siniakova play on Saturday, and we’ll look at those matches tomorrow.

In the men’s, Hurkacz and Auger-Aliassime also play tomorrow. Bautista-Agut takes to the court in his 3rd round match today, taking on Dominik Koepfer. Unlike Jabeur v Muguzura, in this one, our player is the bookies’ favourite…

World no.10 Bautista-Agut is 4/11 (1.36) to beat Koepfer, who is ranked no.62. That doesn’t mean this will be straightforward, though. The 27-year-old German tends to raise his game for the big matches, pushing Roger Federer close at the French Open last month.

Bautista-Agut beat Koepfer 2-1 on clay in Hamburg last season. So far this week, both of the Spaniard’s match wins have seen him drop sets, too – winning 3-1 in the 1st round, then 3-2 in round two. Another tough assignment awaits today, but I’m sticking with our man to give a good account of himself, and find a way through. The winner will take on either Denis Shapovalov or Andy Murray in the Last 16…

  • Stats Fact: Bautista-Agut has won his last 7 matches against left-handed opponents – including that win over Koepfer in Hamburg

Women’s 3rd Quarter chances…

In the top half of the women’s Wimbledon draw, we’ve got Siniakova sitting in the 1st Quarter, and Muchova in the 2nd. On the opposite side of the drawsheet, we’re on Jabeur in the 4th Quarter.

After 3rd Quarter outsider selection Alison Riske went out in the 1st round, this is the one section of the women’s event where we haven’t currently got a runner…

Let’s change that by getting a nice Outright price in the book today. As I keep saying, women’s Grand Slam are wide open right now – and that means the big odds are there to be taken…

Two-time SW19 champion Petra Kvitova crashed out in the 1st round, meaning another Czech player, Karolina Pliskova, was installed as favourite in this 3rd Quarter of the draw. I’m on record as saying I find it hard to trust Pliskova in big matches these days. And the same goes for Madison Keys, who is also in this section, and is second in the Quarter betting behind Pliskova.

Keys plays Elise Mertens today, a match-up in which the American can point to a 2-0 head-to-head. Pliskova takes on a fellow Czech player, Tereza Martincova – the woman who took out our pick Riske in round one. Pliskova beat Martincova at the US Open in 2019, 7-6, 7-6. That’s a score-line that suggests the lesser-known of the two Czech players could make things interesting today.

  • Martincova has won 6 of her last 8 matches against fellow Czech players – with the 2 losses coming against Pliskova, and French Open champion Barbora Krejcikova

Age 26, Martincova has reached a career-best no.87 in the world this summer. This one almost ticks the box for an upset pick – Tereza is 3/1 at best to beat her countrywoman today, and odds-on with a +4.5 Games Handicap. But my gut feeling is that Pliskova will have a bit too much for her on serve.

The winner of that match will face Ludmilla Samsonova or Sloane Stephens for a place in the quarter finals…

Samsonova has been the grass-court story of the summer so far, with the 22-year-old Russian seemingly coming from nowhere to win the WTA 500 title in Berlin as a qualifier last month. That maiden WTA title win came at odds of 250/1. With a 9-0 winning streak on grass now under her belt, the cat is out of the bag in terms of the odds. Samsonova is 25/1 at best to go all the way and cause a sensation at Wimbledon next weekend. She’s also priced as an 8/13 (1.62) favourite to beat Stephens today…

Hello, old friend…

If you’re been reading Ones to Watch for any amount of time, you’ll know where we stand on Sloane Stephens. I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve called the American an enigma. Sloane is hands-down one of the best players in the world. The problem has been pinning down when and where she’s going to turn on the form. Because when she is ‘on,’ Stephens is absolutely brilliant.

The 28-year-old is always going to be in our good books. In 2017, Sloane was a big 40/1 winner for us at the US Open. And in 2018, we got on Stephens at 25/1 halfway through the French Open, and she rewarded us by reaching the final for an Each Way payout.

40/1 and 33/1 is too big…

At odds of 40/1 and 33/1 today, there’s nothing sentimental about backing Sloane to put another deep Grand Slam run together here. The signs of a bounce-back to form have been there since the start of the clay-court season this spring, with a quarter final and semi final on the WTA Tour. Followed by a very respectable 4th-round showing at the French Open, only beaten by eventual Roland Garros champion, Krejcikova.

When Stephens clicks into gear, she’s a joy to watch – on any playing surface. Samsonova may be the player on a winning streak, but Stephens has bags of talent, and took out one of the top names in the 1st round, knocking out Kvitova. Sloane also has a 4-1 head-to-head record v Pliskova, should they meet in the next round.

Today’s prices look too big to me: an underdog to beat the newcomer Samsonova. And 40/1 & 33/1 for the title, in a year when anyone can win it. Sloane Stephens is the value here.

Ones to Watch – Wimbledon

  • Match Winner: Sloane Stephens to beat Ludmilla Samsonova @ 11/8 (2.38) BetVictor, 13/10 (2.3) Bet365, William Hill, Betway, Boylesports, 10Bet
  • Women’s Outright Winner – Each Way: Sloane Stephens @ 40/1 Bet365,  33/1 William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

Samsonova v Stephens is scheduled for this afternoon, 1pm+.

I’ll be back tomorrow morning with your Wimbledon Day 6 email, Saturday 8.30am.

You can email me during the tournament at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch