Tennis Betting Advice - July 2022
Wimbledon: Day 9 – a big day at the office…
Tuesday 5th July 2022
Welcome to Day 9 of your Wimbledon 2022 Daily Service.
Good morning. Both our ladies took a bit of a beating yesterday. It can happen. Especially when you back outsiders, as we do. Petra Martic's serving level dropped v Elena Rybakina – with nerves likely getting the better of her. Paula Badosa was simply outplayed by a brilliant performance by Simona Halep. I think I've only seen Halep play that well once before – and that was when she won Wimbledon in 2019.
Our speculative 50/1 outright play on Martic was covered somewhat by a 5/2 payout from Over 10.5 Games in the 1st Set, with Rybakina taking the opener, 7-5 (12 games).
Into the quarter finals we go…
Once I’d got over losing Martic and Badosa yesterday, zooming out and then refocusing on the bigger picture – our overall tournament position remains full of promise and excitement…
We're all about the bottom half of the draw now. Our two women play in the quarter finals today. Ons Jabeur taking on Marie Bouzkova. Jule Niemeier playing Tatjana Maria. Both our players are the favourites to win. If the oddsmakers are right, then we'll have a win-win semi final on our hands, and that would mean a guaranteed finalist from our Each Way selections. That would be the dream ticket for us this afternoon.
In the men's event, we have one big-price Ones to Watch pick running for us, and that’s our friend Taylor Fritz. He's in the quarter finals v Rafael Nadal tomorrow. If you believe in good omens, then remember that it was Rafa that Fritz beat in the Indian Wells final earlier this season... bagging us a 100/1 tournament winner.
The quarter finals are set. From a total of 16 players left in the women’s & men’s events combined, we’re on three of them. With our Each Way, Outright Winner selections now accounting for 19% of the field. And our trio of players now trading at much shorter prices than when we backed them:
This is why we play at big prices…
‘Wide open’ is a phrase I often use ahead of and during a Grand Slam. It’s a term applied to pretty much every women’s outing lately, with the Majors throwing up half a dozen 100/1+ finalists over the last two-and-a-half years:
Since the start of the 2020 season:
Here are the day-one Wimbledon Outright Winner prices for the women’s event, for the eight players that make up the quarter finals:
Ons Jabeur 9/1
Simona Halep 18/1
Amanda Anisimova 50/1
Elena Rybakina 100/1
Ajla Tomljanovic 250/1
Marie Bouzkova 250/1
Jule Niemeier 500/1
Tatjana Maria 500/1
As that list shows, the big-price pattern is on full display once again here at SW19…
While long-established titans of the sport Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are still very much in contention for the honours this week. The men’s Wimbledon draw is also peppered with big-price quarter-finalists. With this year’s ‘wide open’ scenario aided by the likes of Matteo Berrettini and Marin Cilic pulling out with Covid. And the world’s Top 2 of Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev also unable to compete.
Here are the day-one prices for the men’s quarter-finalists:
Novak Djokovic 4/5
Rafael Nadal 7/1
Nick Kyrgios 33/1
Taylor Fritz 125/1
Jannik Sinner 200/1
Cameron Norrie 200/1
David Goffin 500/1
Cristian Garin 1,000/1
Some very pertinent examples right here at Wimbledon then, as to why we go for big-odds outsiders with our Ones to Watch tournament picks. We have three such players still in the book, in action for us in the quarter finals over the next two days.
A big day at the office…
With Jabeur and Niemeier playing this afternoon, it’s a big day for us.
A month ago, at the French Open, we had a similarly exciting situation on our hands. With 100/1+ Paris pick Martina Trevisan playing in the semi finals v Coco Gauff. A win for Trevisan that day would’ve guaranteed a chunky Each Way payout and profit, as well as the chance of landing the ‘big one’ in the final.
While today’s quarter-final scenario isn’t quite as all-or-nothing as that recent Roland Garros example (as one of Jabeur and Niemeier could make it to the semi finals and keep our women’s Outright Winner quest rolling). I’ve still got the butterflies-in-the-belly feeling today…
The big difference here, other of course than that these are quarter finals and not the semis, is that this time, our players go into the big matches as the favourites. Whereas Trevisan was an underdog to beat Gauff last month, today both Jabeur and Niemeier are the favourites to win their respective contests. And in doing so, set up a happy-days semi final for us.
Stick or twist…
Here are the Match Winner prices:
Ons Jabeur v Marie Bouzkova
2/7 (1.29) 3/1 (4.0)
Jule Niemeier v Tatjana Maria
4/7 (1.57) 6/4 (2.5)
Combined, those odds make it an Even Money (2.0) chance that our two players, Jabeur and Niemeier, both make it to the semi final. And in doing so, insure we have an Outright Winner pick destined for the final at a great Each Way price.
On the other side of the coin, it’s around 9/1 (10.0) and 8/1 (9.0) for the worst-case double, which would be the two upsets today, Bouzkova and Maria both winning.
What do I think? Taking each match on its individual merit, I’m fully agreed with the bookies as to Jabeur and Niemeier being the favourites today. I can see the dangers presented by both Bouzkova and Maria, as is my underdog way of thinking. Bouzkova has been in magnificent form, and could prove very tricky here. Maria will try to disrupt Niemeier’s power game, and slice and dice her way through. All told though, I’m standing firm with my players. A few days ago, if you’d told me this would be the quarter-final line-up for us, then I’d have taken these two opponents.
Jabeur showed her grit in the last round, beating Elise Mertens, who was playing very well and provided a serious test. Niemeier has the look of a youngster with something really special in her locker. On her two outings on the stadium courts so far, she’s risen to the occasion brilliantly – beating 2nd seed Anett Kontaveit on her Court 1 debut, and Britain’s Heather Watson on Centre Court.
And to refer back to the phrase I mentioned the other day, I’m going to dance with who I came to the dance with.
Day 9 match picks – Yankee…
Playing for small stakes at big odds, I’m putting up my Set Betting score ‘predictions’ for all four of today’s quarter final matches in a Yankee bet.
A Yankee is a multiple bet made up of 6 doubles, 4 trebles, and a four-fold acca.
The individual 3-1 and 2-1 Set Betting selections are around 3/1 each. With the full-house acca worth 260/1 at the best odds quoted below.
Treating this as roughly a ‘1 point’ bet overall, 0.1 pt per line would be a total stake of 1.1 pts (0.1 x 11). Any two winning Set Betting scores will give a profit. With three or four making things very exciting.
Djokovic to win 3-1 v Sinner @ 27/10 (3.7)
Norrie to win 3-1 v Goffin @ 3/1 (4.0)
Niemeier to win 2-1 v Maria @ 16/5 (4.2)
Jabeur to win 2-1 v Bouzkova @ 16/5 (4.2)
Ones to Watch picks – Wimbledon:
Quarter Final matches today – play starts 1pm:
I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Wimbledon Day 10 email.
Want to get in touch? Email me at:
Enjoy the tennis…