Tennis Betting Advice - July 2022
Wimbledon: Day 10 – Fritz v Nadal, revenge or repeat…
Wednesday 6th July 2022
Welcome to Day 10 of your Wimbledon 2022 Daily Service.
Jabeur makes the semis…
So, we dance with who we came to the dance with…
After reaching the quarter finals for us as a Ones to Watch pick last summer, Ons Jabeur was our very first selection for Wimbledon this year.
On 22nd April, we got the Tunisian in the book at standout early-bird prices of 40/1 and 33/1 Each Way.
Since then, Jabeur has stormed through May and June. Reaching three finals, lifting the trophy in two of them. And climbing to a new high of no.2 in the world.
On grass, the 27-year-old is played 10 won 10 this season. Having won WTA Berlin last month, Ons is now through to the Wimbledon semi finals.
Jabeur’s overall career match win-loss record on the turf now stands at 59-16. That’s a magnificent 79% grass-court win ratio.
With a semi final coming up on Thursday against world no.103 Tatjana Maria. This morning’s revised women’s Wimbledon Outright Winner market has Ons Jabeur as the 11/8 (2.38) favourite.
If you’re on Jabeur at the big prices advised in April, then you’ve got a great ticket in your hand. We’re on the Wimbledon favourite, at outsider prices. That sounds good.
For the Each Way part of our bet, Jabeur is now just one victory away from securing a 1/2 odds payout by reaching the final.
I’ll leave any ‘saver bet’ decisions up to you. I’m sticking with Ons to go all the way.
Fritz v Nadal: revenge or repeat…
In the men’s event, we’ve got one tournament pick remaining. And it’s a big one.
Taylor Fritz was one of our outsider selections the night before Wimbledon. The American went in the book at odds of 125/1, 100/1 or 80/1 Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places).
Having landed us similar odds when winning ATP Indian Wells in March, Fritz owes us nothing. The 24-year-old goes into today’s Wimbledon quarter final as an appealing underdog once again, coming up against the man he beat in that Masters 1000 final…
With bookies now betting Win Only, Fritz is now 25/1 at best for the trophy. With 80/1 in the book, we’ve got another good price on our side.
And our man is in form, with Taylor yet to drop a set through the first four rounds. Now comes the big challenge: taking on Rafael Nadal in the quarter finals today.
The head-to-head is 1-1. With the most recent meeting being that brilliant performance in the Indian Wells final. That win, followed by a second career grass-court title at Eastbourne last month, will give Taylor belief that he can beat Rafa again here.
Taking on one of the all-time greats on Centre Court at Wimbledon in your first ever Grand Slam quarter final is a big task, of course. But Fritz’s whole tennis life has been geared towards achieving moments like this. He won’t fear this occasion. He’ll see it as an opportunity. This guy wants success.
One thing that has impressed me a lot about the world no.14 over the past twelve months has been Taylor’s ability to dig in and stick in long, high-quality rallies with opponents. We saw it at Indian Wells. And it’s been in evidence again here at SW19, too. Fritz is able to hit a consistent, deep ball, striking the ball as clean as anyone in the game right now.
He’ll need all of his strokes to be in working order against Rafa this afternoon. And one key weapon has to be the serve. Of the men left in the tournament, Fritz is ranked top for 1st Serve Points Won (84%). And out of those eight quarter finalists, only Nick Kyrgios has hit more Aces.
Going into that Indian Wells final in March, the bookmakers had Fritz as the 4/1 (5.0) underdog to beat Nadal. In today’s Match Winner betting, they have the American at 11/5 (3.2). That price drop shows Taylor is now commanding greater respect as a contender on the big stage.
Big Boys v Young Guns…
This will be the first Fritz v Nadal clash at a Grand Slam. That means best-of-five-sets. And as we saw with Novak Djokovic yesterday, coming from two sets down to beat 20-year-old Jannik Sinner, 3-2. It’s hard to beat the big boys at a Major – and they never give in.
Indeed, this season alone, Nadal has broken the hearts of a few of the Next Gen names in this manner. Battling through with all his champion quality to beat the likes of 23-year-old Denis Shapovalov in the Australian Open quarter finals, and then 26-year-old Daniil Medvedev in the final (coming from 0-2 down). And then beating 21-year-old Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Last 16 at the French Open.
All three of those Grand Slam wins saw Rafa win through against the young guns in the full five sets, paying out on the 3-2 option in the Set Betting markets.
That 3-2 angle is going in my quarter-final Yankee today. I wasn’t too far off clicking yesterday, and I like the massive odds that these combinations offer…
Day 10 match picks – Yankee…
Playing for small stakes at big odds once again, I’m putting my Set Betting score ‘predictions’ for all four of today’s quarter final matches in a Yankee bet.
The full-house acca worth 371/1 at the best odds quoted below (William Hill).
Treating this as roughly a ‘1 point’ bet overall, 0.1 pt per line would be a total stake of 1.1 pts (0.1 x 11). Any two winning Set Betting scores will give a profit. With three or four making things very exciting.
Nadal we’ve discussed above. Kyrgios has dropped at least one set in three of his four matches so far. And after both of yesterday’s women’s quarter finals went all the way to three sets, we could be in for some more nervy and close-fought battles today…
Play starts on Centre Court at 1.30pm. Halep v Anisimova is followed by Fritz v Nadal.
Plays starts on Court 1 at 1pm. Tomljanovic v Rybakina is followed by Garin v Kyrgios.
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Ones to Watch picks – Wimbledon:
Quarter Final matches today – play starts 1pm:
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I’ll be back at tomorrow morning with your Day 11 email.
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Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson