Tennis Betting Advice - July 2022
Wimbledon: Day 14 – Men’s Final…
Sunday 10th July 2022
Welcome to Day 14 of your Wimbledon 2022 Daily Service.
Women’s Grand Slams continue to dumbfound…
Elena Rybakina becomes the latest 100/1 shot to win a Major. Coming from behind to beat our 40/1 ante-post pick Ons Jabeur in the Wimbledon final.
Adding to the incredible stack of recent giant-odds outcomes and first-time winners in the women’s Slams:
Maiden winners – since 2015:
Since the Australian Open 2017, when Serena Williams last won a Major title:
Since the start of 2020:
The 100/1 Club…
This is just remarkable…
The last eight women’s Grand Slam finals have featured seven players at odds of 100/1+. With four of them winning the trophy.
Wow. This sport really is wide open. This is why we go after such big odds….
Here’s that seven-lady list:
French Open 2020 – Iga Swiatek 100/1 (winner)
French Open 2021 – Barbora Krejcikova 175/1 (winner)
French Open 2021- Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 150/1 (runner-up)
US Open 2021 – Emma Raducanu 100/1 (winner)
US Open 2021 – Leylah Fernandez 200/1+ (runner-up)
Australian Open 2022 – Danielle Collins 100/1 (runner-up)
Wimbledon 2022 – Elena Rybakina 100/1 (winner)
All seven of those players were first-time Major finalists. Incredible stuff. And the way the women’s game is right now, this carnage is showing no sign of slowing down…
Looking for the next Big One…
From our own betting picks, on that list, we profited big-time from Swiatek at the full 100/1 odds. And also from Collins, backed at 66/1 & 50/1 during this year’s Australian Open.
What’s more, the likes of Fernandez and Rybakina both featured in our pre-season Ones to Watch in 2021 report (view it here). In both cases, I even discussed their potential as Grand Slam contenders. Ones that got away? Maybe. But as I always say, there’s no crystal ball. With the wide-open nature of women’s tennis, we’re doing well to get in the right ballpark on several occasions, on the big stage.
Talking of being in the right ballpark. Jabeur’s defeat yesterday was the sixth time this year that we’ve seen a Ones to Watch Outright Winner pick beaten at the post. Each Way payouts are good. But as we saw with Taylor Fritz in March, the full win is where the glory lies.
Our near-miss file includes two 40/1 runners-up in our last two tournaments – Maxime Cressy at ATP Eastbourne last month, then Jabeur at Wimbledon. Both lost in a deciding set in the final. And while I’ve got the violins out, at the start of March, 30/1 shot Camila Osorio had five match points in the WTA Monterrey final.
I’m working on some notes for an article about our big-price Ones to Watch tournament picks. There’s an angle I’ve been looking into, that may well help lead us to the next super payday at a Grand Slam…
That’s for another day though. These past couple of days I’ve actually been feeling a bit unwell. The Covid tests are saying negative. So, it must just be the worst cold that I’ve had for many a year.
So, today, while the sun beats down outside. I’ll be snuffling around in my living room watching TV. I’m not complaining… a Sunday afternoon in front of the telly doesn’t come much better than Djokovic v Kyrgios in the Wimbledon men’s final…
Men’s Final – Novak Djokovic v Nick Krygios
2pm, BBC One
This one has blockbuster written all over it. The defending champ Novak Djokovic, the ultimate professional sportsman, driven and dedicated. And the rebel contender, the architect of chaos, the man with talent that brings crowds from around the world: Nick Kyrgios.
The Match Winner odds have this as:
Djokovic 1/4 (1.25)
Kyrgios 3/1 (4.0)
The head-to-head is 2-0 to Kyrgios – as if the Aussie needed any further reason to think he can beat the best. He already knows he can…
Those results were both on hard courts, in 2017. Both matches featured a tiebreak, 7-6 set. The bookies make it odds-on that we’ll see at least one tiebreak today. Bet365 are 4/9 (1.44) for ‘Over 0.5 Tiebreaks in the Match.’
The build-up to this match has been a pretty unique one. After Rafael Nadal broke our hearts by taking out our 100/1 pick Taylor Fritz in a deciding fifth-set tiebreak in the quarter finals… and then promptly pulled out of the tournament injured the next day. Krygios has been handed the rarest of tennis gifts: a free pass through the semi finals – and into a debut Grand Slam final he goes…
That means that Nick hasn’t played since Wednesday. Djokovic came from behind to beat Cameron Norrie, 3-1 in the semi final on Friday. Before that, Novak also came from behind – this time twos sets down – to beat Jannik Sinner, 3-2 in the quarter finals.
A ferocious battle in store…
This really could be an intriguing match. And unless Nick does something truly unforgivable, I reckon the Centre Court crowd are going to be largely supporting the underdog today. A situation that doesn’t sit well with Novak. He wants to be loved – but doesn’t always get it.
The other day we spoke about the Big Four’s ability to get the job done in five sets. We’ve seen it so many times. Not least at this very tournament, with Djokovic and Nadal both beating younger players in five sets, coming from behind on the scoreboard to do so.
In the last two rounds, the Serbian star has dropped the first set, and come back to win – and convincingly so by the end of the match.
Last summer, Novak did the same thing four times in a row enroute to winning the US Open, losing the opening set to recover and win through. In the 3rd round, Last 16, quarters, and semi final. That included a 3-2 victory over Alexander Zverev in the semi.
In last year’s Wimbledon final, Djokovic again went a set down. Before roaring back to beat the big-serving Matteo Berrettini, 3-1. The list goes on…
At the French Open last season, Novak came all the way from 0-2 down in the final to beat another Next Gen name, Stefanos Tsitsipas, 3-2.
In markets widely available with most bookies, two bets jump out for me. Kyrgios to win the 1st Set at around 2/1. And in the Set Betting market, Djokovic to win 3-2 at 5/1+.
Will an umpire finally snap…?
You never know. The quiet, polite schoolboy version of Nick Kyrgios might turn up today. But I’d say it’s most likely that he will erupt at some point…
Things could get seriously tasty out there under the sun this afternoon. Gladiatorial, even. Kyrgios likes to play with noise and drama around him – even if he doesn’t consciously realise that that’s what he’s doing.
I’ve been looking around this morning to see if any bookmakers have got a price on a player to be defaulted or disqualified during the match. I can’t see any. We weren’t far from either player going that way in the ill-tempered Kyrgios-Tsitsipas clash last weekend. I wouldn’t rule anything out here.
Enjoy the final…
Ones to Watch picks – Wimbledon:
Novak Djokovic v Nick Kyrgios
I’ll be back tomorrow morning with my Outright Winner picks & preview for next week’s ATP & WTA tournaments.
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Enjoy the tennis…