Tennis Betting Advice - July 2022

Alex on the up at 20/1 - and tiebreak chances tonight...

Tuesday 26th July 2022

Good morning. We started the week by getting two Americans in the book for the hard-court event in Atlanta (details here).

Today we’re heading on to the clay in Croatia, where play starts from 3pm UK time…

Alex on the up at 20/1…

ALEX MOLCAN is a player to get behind at ATP Umag. The 24-year-old Slovakian is putting together a breakthrough season on the tour. Up to a career-high no.38 in the rankings. He’s reached two finals on clay already this year. Finishing runner-up in Marrakech in April, and then in Lyon in May. They were both ATP 250-grade events, as is this week’s tournament.

At Marrakech, Molcan went off at odds of 25/1. At Lyon, he was 16/1. Today, we can get an Outright Winner price for Umag in-between those numbers, with 22/1, 20/1 and 18/1 available as I write this morning. He plays his 1st-round match this afternoon.

Last week, Alex made the semi finals at the higher-grade ATP 500 event in Hamburg, only stopped by the prodigious teenager and new world no.5, Carlos Alcaraz.

In May, Molcan teamed up with fellow Slovak, Novak Djokovic’s former long-time coach, Marian Vajda. That looks a great appointment. In April of last year, at a 250-grade in Belgrade, Molcan announced himself on the tour by reaching his debut final… finishing runner-up on clay to: Novak Djokovic. Along with former pro Karol Beck in his camp, Alex looks set to build on a promising last couple of years. The next step – a maiden trophy win…

At odds of 4/1, Jannik Sinner is the big name in Molcan’s side of the Umag draw. However, the Italian hasn’t quite been at his sharpest in 2022 so far. After four title wins in 2021, Sinner is yet to taste victory on the tour this year. This week Jannik makes the transition back to clay, with his last competitive outing coming on grass at Wimbledon in a gruelling quarter-final defeat to Djokovic. Any rustiness from the classy 20-year-old here, and an improving name like Molcan can take advantage in this side of the draw.

Back Ben on his debut at 6/1…

Over in the States at ATP Atlanta, this evening’s match between newcomer Ben Shelton and the experienced Ramkumar Ramanathan pricks my attention.

An Atlanta native, teenager Shelton has been granted a Wild Card into the main draw this week, making his debut appearance in an ATP event. The 19-year-old has shown good form on the lower-tier Challenger Tour this year, reaching two semi finals and a final from four events entered (all on hard courts).

Age 27, India’s Ramanathan has been around a while, with the majority of his tennis success coming in Doubles. That said, last weekend’s serve-dominated 7-6, 3-6, 7-6 win in Atlanta Qualifying against Britain’s highly-rated youngster Jack Draper suggests it would be wise not to write off the underdog here.

The bookies make the newcomer Shelton an 8/13 (1.62) match favourite today. Rather than take the odds-on price about the youngster, I much prefer to take a roll at odds in the region of 6/1 for the American to win the 1st Set on a tiebreak, 7-6.

The 6’3” teenager brings some strong serving stats from his recent matches, and Ramanathan knows how to take care of plenty of his own service games, too.

  • 4 of Shelton’s last 8 matches have had a Tiebreak in the 1st Set. Ben has won 3 of those 4 tiebreaks
  • 3 of Ramanathan’s last 7 matches had seen a Tiebreak in the 1st Set. Ramkumar has lost 2 of those 3 tiebreaks


Ones to Watch picks:

ATP Umag Plava Laguna Croatia Open Umag

Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):

  • ALEX MOLCAN @ 22/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 20/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, NetBet, 10Bet, SportNation, 18/1 Skybet, William Hill

ATP Atlanta Atlanta Open

Ben Shelton v Ramkumar Ramanathan:

  • 1st Set Score: Shelton 7-6 @ 13/2 (7.5) William Hill, 6/1 (7.0) Skybet, 11/2 (6.5) BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred


Today’s play in Umag starts from 3pm, UK time. Bookies will take down their Outright Winner markets during play.

Shelton v Ramanathan in Atlanta is due on court at 7pm+.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch