Tennis Betting Advice - July 2023
Wimbledon Day 1: Women's picks at 2/1 and 75/1...
Monday 3rd July 2023
Welcome to your Wimbledon 2023 Daily Service - Day 1…
Good morning. It’s that time of year again. ‘Christmas morning’ for tennis fans. Always a hop-out-of-bed moment for me. I didn’t need to worry too much about the alarm clock going off this morning, with the new arrival blissfully unaware of time - yet alone the sporting calendar…
Day 1 of Wimbledon is always exciting. Last year, I was on the grounds at SW19 when the first day’s play got underway. The crackle of anticipation in the air. The odd celebrity walking by. Those immaculate, green-carpet courts - decorated with bright-white chalk…
The umbrellas were up when I arrived last year. There is a bit of bad weather forecast during the first few days this week. But we’re looking like being back in heatwave territory come the weekend. All being well with new mum & baby, I’m planning to be in the stands on Centre Court later in the tournament…
I’d love to actually be out on the court myself, of course. The last grass court I played on was a little bit bumpy, £7 an hour, with the biggest concern being stray balls landing in the car park. In the village I grew up in, there were two hard courts. We used to climb the fence onto the clubhouse (= shed) roof to get in. Playing out a few matches pretending to be Andre Agassi. Before the adults came and shooed us away for not being members (and we wonder why GB doesn’t produce many new young players…).
Maybe I’ll get my new daughter into tennis, and she can live out my Wimbledon dream for me. Although to be honest, I’m not the pushy-parent type. Unlike Andre Agassi’s dad, who decided his son was going to be a professional tennis player before he was even born. Strapping ping-pong bats above little Andre’s cot, to ‘encourage’ him to strike a ball, and get that hand-eye coordination going as soon as possible. It’s all there in Agassi’s engrossing book, Open: An Autobiography. Fun fact: it’s ghost-written by the same author who worked on Prince Harry’s recent memoir, Spare (J.R. Moehringer obviously has a thing for one-word titles).
The early bird gets the worm - but we can also take our time…
Here we are then at Wimbledon 2023. The gates open at 10am. People will have been in The Queue for a ground pass and Monday tickets since the early hours. Play starts at 11am. And it’s all live on the BBC and iPlayer…
Most weeks on the tour we have to scramble to get our tournament Outright Winner bets down before play begins, with bookies suspending markets as soon as the first ball is hit. That’s not the case at a Grand Slam, with the markets staying open during play. Although of course, the plan is to get the best prices by moving as early as we can…
We start with these four early-bird picks already in the book. Click on the links to view the original Ones to Watch analysis & advice. Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places:
Men:
Taylor Fritz @ 50/1 - now 66/1 Skybet, 60/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 50/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred, Boylesports, Sporting Index Fixed Odds
Andy Murray @ 55/1 - now 70/1 Sporting Index Fixed Odds, 66/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Unibet, Betfred, 50/1 Bet365, Boylesports, Betway
While our two men’s picks have drifted in price since we backed them, with the latest Wimbledon warm-up results, and last week’s tournament draw being the factors behind that. The odds for our two women’s selections have both contracted…
Women:
Karolina Muchova @ 80/1 or 66/1 - now 22/1 Bet365, 20/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, Betfred, Boylesports, Sporting Index Fixed Odds
Petra Kvitova @ 25/1, 22/1 or 20/1 - now 12/1 Bet365, Betfred, Boylesports, SpreadEx Sports, around 10/1 in general
On the other hand, there’s no need for a massive rush to get all our Outright work done ahead of the 1st round, which takes place across today and tomorrow…
Last year, for example, eventual women’s champion Elena Rybakina was still trading at 100/1 and 80/1, up until the 3rd round - when world no.1 Iga Swiatek was knocked out. And back in our very first Wimbledon Daily Service ten years ago, 2013 champ Marion Bartoli was available at those same big prices until Serena Williams was dumped out in the 4th round, one match before the quarter finals.
The trick is to spot the big-price opportunity before the game-changing upset or breakthrough moment occurs, of course. And that’s what we’ll be looking to do…
Here’s a potentially useful formbook fact that I unearthed in my research:
That stat bodes well for our pick Kvitova. The Czech left-hander won WTA Berlin last month, without dropping a set. Taking her career grass-court match win-loss rate to an impressive: won 73 lost 23 (76.04%).
256 names in the hat, on paper…
In the men’s & women’s singles events, 128 players line up in each draw. Only one man and one woman can emerge victorious and take home the trophy…
According to the bookmakers, that’s going to be Novak Djokovic and Iga Swiatek, respectively. With Novak odds-on hot favourite at 8/13 (1.62) for the men’s title. And Iga the 3/1 (4.0) market leader in the women’s. A win-only double on Djokovic and Swiatek pays around 5/1 (6.0)...
We play at much bigger prices than that. We certainly don’t win every time, but at the prices we go for, one or two big results a season makes it all worthwhile and then some…
Playing the field on Day 1…
As noted in last week’s pre-Wimbledon update email, there’s plenty of scope for taking on the favourites and backing exciting new young players in the Grand Slams - especially on the women’s side:
16 of the last 30 women’s Grand Slams have produced a maiden Major winner. Including Elena Rybakina here at Wimbledon last summer, at 100/1
The last 11 women’s Grand Slam finals have featured 8 players who went off at Day 1 prices of 100/1 or greater. With 4 of those ladies lifting the trophy
There are a total of 64 matches on the Monday schedule, and the same again on Tuesday. The top half of the women’s draw gets underway today, which is the section that includes world no.1 Swiatek. Along with the bottom half of the men’s, featuring four-time reigning champion and seven-time Wimbledon winner, Djokovic.
That top half of the women’s draw-sheet is where we’re focusing our attention today. Our two pre-tournament picks Kvitova and Muchova have both landed in the opposite side of the draw; eg. they can’t meet Swiatek until the final.
Storylines to watch out for in the top half of the ladies field include Anett Kontaveit, who is playing her last Wimbledon before being forced to retire from the sport due to an ongoing back injury.
While another 27-year-old, Donna Vekic, will be dreaming of reaching a first Grand Slam final. Vekic has been one of the market movers in recent days. The Croatian was a 100/1 shot for Wimbledon earlier this year. But after reaching the final at WTA Berlin last month - where she was beaten in straight sets by our SW19 pick, Kvitova. Vekic goes off today at around 25/1 for the trophy.
Venus Williams will be on Centre Court this afternoon. Age 43 and now ranked 558 in the world, the former no.1 and five-time Wimbledon champion will take on 28-year-old Elina Svitolina, who is one of five mothers in the draw. A former Top 3 player, Svitolina is currently ranked 76, with a positive return to Grand Slam action at the recent French Open (quarter finals).
In terms of promising youngsters to keep an eye on in today’s women’s line-up, 21-year-old American college champion Peyton Stearns is in action against the talented but hard-to-predict Marketa Vondrousova. Along with Ones to Watch regulars Linda Fruhvirtova (age just 18), and Qinwen Zheng (age 20).
Diane Parry is one that flashes on my radar as a 9/4 (3.25) underdog to beat Britain’s Harriet Dart. The 20-year-old Frenchwoman is a potential rising star of the game. She’s best known on the clay in her homeland, but Parry was a Wimbledon Girls’ semi-finalist in 2019. And reached the 3rd round in the main event last year, only beaten by eventual finalist and Top 10 player, Ons Jabeur.
Dart has the London crowd behind her today, but in my view she doesn’t always hold up the best under big pressure. Diane is higher-ranked and looks a little underrated here. The match is scheduled first on Court 12, from 11am.
In terms of the Outright Winner betting, 15th seed Liudmila Samsonova is a potential dark horse in the draw, available at attractive odds of around 75/1 and 66/1. We’ve backed the big-serving, flat-hitting Russian a few times before at fancy prices. Including as a 100/1 shot at the US Open last season, where she gave us a good run for our money by reaching week two.
Samsonova has a respectable 66.66% career match win-rate on grass (20-10). The 24-year-old is still on the up in the sport, and I certainly feel she has the temperament and weapons to go deep in a few Majors. The current world no.15, Liudmila is ranked inside the WTA Top 10 for 1st Serve Points Won this year (71.5%). And 4th for Most Aces. Both great stats to look out for on grass courts…
While fellow Russian, Veronika Kudermetova is more like 33/1 and 28/1 here. I prefer Samsonova as an underdog bet - at twice the price.
_________________________________________________
Ones to Watch picks - Wimbledon:
Match Winner:
Women's Outright Winner - Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
_________________________________________________
I’ll be back at 8am Tuesday with your Wimbledon Day 2 email.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone