Tennis Betting Advice - July 2023
Wimbledon Day 9: Sinner to stop Safiullin...
Tuesday 11th July 2023
Wimbledon 2023 Daily Service - Day 9
Mental toughness…
The longer I study sport, the more it becomes apparent that mental toughness is the defining factor…
Clutch play. Self-belief. Resilience. All are absolutely key when it comes to the small margins that separate winning and losing - success and failure - at the top of the game.
But here’s the thing. Unlike a metric such as, say, number of aces or double faults. Mental toughness is much harder to quantify…
It’s not so much in the numbers or on paper. It’s in what you see and feel when watching the player in action. On the biggest stage, and in the most important moments…
It’s one of the characteristics I meant when I said Holger Rune has the X Factor. The 20-year-old Dane doesn’t play or carry himself like a nervous new kid on the block. He believes he can and should win.
Rune saved two match points in the 3rd round, coming from two sets to one down to win. Any player can pull that off once, I suppose. But I’ve seen Holger do that several times already in his young career.
Yesterday, the world no.6 lost the opening set against Grigor Dimitrov. But Rune’s body language remained energetic, positive, and dynamic throughout. He proceeded to take the next two sets via tiebreaks, displaying nerves of steel. Before finally breaking the spirit of his 32-year-old opponent in the fourth set - winning 3-6, 7-6, 7-6, 6-3.
Rune the real deal…
Rune is through to his first Wimbledon quarter final. Adding to the back-to-back Grand Slam quarter-final appearances that he racked up at the French Open, this year and last…
And if we look at Holger’s overall 2023 form. This kid is clearly going places…
Rune’s tournament record this season (most recent last):
1st Round
4th Round
Semi Final
4th Round
Semi Final
3rd Round
4th Round
Final - Runner-Up
Final - Won
3rd Round
Final - Runner-Up
Quarter Final
Semi Final
Quarter Final - Wimbledon, plays tomorrow…
We flagged up Rune for Wimbledon at 50/1 and 66/1 Each Way. After yesterday’s win, the bookies have finally reacted to his form and dragged his price down. Now trading at 28/1 at best and 25/1 in general in the Outright Winner market.
On Wednesday, Holger will play world no.1 Carlos Alcaraz in the quarter finals. The head-to-head between these two exciting ‘real deal’ 20-year-olds is level at 1-1. Their last meeting was also a quarter final, at the ATP 1000 Paris Masters in November. An event that Rune went on to win for us at big odds, having also saved a match point during the tournament…
On the topic of mental toughness, an update on the Tiebreak form that I mentioned yesterday…
Holger Rune has now won 10 of the last 11 tiebreak sets that he’s played
Chris Eubanks landed us a 3-2 Set Betting score at good odds yesterday. The American has now won 9 of his last 10 tiebreaks on grass
Novak Djokovic showed his champion qualities once again, winning two very close sets by the 7-6 score v Hubert Hurkacz. Djokovic has now won 12 tiebreaks in a row going back to May
And moving over to the women’s game now, mental toughness is arguably an even more significant deciding factor here…
Pegula v our pick Vondrousova…
World no.1 and trophy favourite Iga Swiatek saved two match points in the last round. Belinda Bencic came agonisingly close to beating the four-time Grand Slam champ in straight sets. But coming close is not enough. Swiatek clawed it back and beat Belinda, 6-7, 7-6, 6-3.
Along with Rune in the men’s tomorrow, we’ve got one player running for us in the women’s quarter finals today…
Marketa Vondrousova started the tournament as a 150/1 rank outsider, having never been past the 2nd round at Wimbledon, and with a negative career grass-court match win-loss record of 5-11 prior to this summer. But having reached the quarter finals on the slick turf at Berlin last month, and now through to the Last 8 at SW19, too. Vondrousova’s match record on grass for this summer stands at a very positive 6-1.
We backed Vondrousova after the 3rd round, taking odds of 40/1 and 33/1 Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places) on Sunday, before she played our other, 150/1+ Czech pick, Marie Bouzkova. Vondrousova won that match 2-1. William Hill offered 50/1 on Monday.
This morning, the Outright Winner market still has our player available at 40/1 (Bet365, BetVictor, Betfred), and 33/1 in general - but now with reduced Each Way terms of 1/3 odds for reaching the final.
A deceptively powerful left-hander, with a penetrative swinging forehand, and a box of tricks at her disposal. If she turns up on song this afternoon, Marketa should be able to disrupt the rhythm of match favourite, Jessica Pegula.
Ranked no.4 in the world, the American is the woman who the bookies and seedings make the most likely to reach the semis here. But this will be Jessica’s first meeting with the tricky Czech. And as we’ve discussed before, in the mental toughness department, question marks remain over Pegula in the biggest moments…
Age 29, Jess has been as high as no.3 in the world, and she is the current American women’s no.1. However, Grand Slam success has so far evaded her. And Major finals and trophies carry greater career-legacy currency than ranking points…
By reaching the quarter finals, this fortnight is already Pegula’s best Wimbledon. She went out in the 3rd round last year.
At the Australian Open, Jess has made the quarter finals three years running (including once when in the book for us as a 100/1 shot).
Her best result at the French Open is also the quarter finals (2022). Likewise with her home ‘Slam at the US Open.
Is the quarter final a glass ceiling for Pegula’s Grand Slam career?
I’ve certainly seen her get nervous and blow winning positions before - including when carrying our cash.
This season, the likeable American has so far once again been in close-but-no-cigar territory, with a string of credible runs in several tournaments, but ultimately no singles silverware going on the shelf…
Including three quarter-final losses, another three in semi finals. And one defeat in a final (against Swiatek).
That could all change this week at Wimbledon, of course. I always say the breakthrough can come at any time. But the same goes for Vondrousova, and I’m sticking with our underdog choice today.
Sinner to stop Safiullin…
Elsewhere, today’s quarter-final line-up looks one for the favourites. With Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic, and Iga Swiatek all short odds-on to win their respective matches.
The pick of the prices for me is Jannik Sinner to win 3-0 at Even Money or better (2.0) against the unheralded Roman Safiullin…
This match-up sees the world no.8 and last year’s Wimbledon quarter-finalist, Sinner. Taking on the no.92 and debutant at this level, Safiullin.
Roman the Russian has most definitely flown under the radar at this tournament. The 25-year-old had never previously been past the 2nd round at any of the four Majors.
Safiullin started the Wimbledon fortnight at the bottom of the betting at 1,000/1 and 500/1. Whereas 21-year-old Italian Sinner went off as the 18/1 third-favourite for the title.
In short, with all due respect to Safiullin, today feels like the end of the line for this particular underdog run. Roman was a tad fortunate to come up against an ailing Denis Shapovalov in the last round. While Sinner has so far looked very sharp and business-like. Odds of 6/5 (2.2) for Jannik to win in straight sets stand out as my match pick for today.
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Ones to Watch picks - Wimbledon:
See above for full details
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I’ll be back on Wednesday morning with your Day 10 email.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone