Tennis Betting Advice - July 2023

Wimbledon Day 11: Picks for the Women's Semi Finals...

Thursday 13th July 2023

Wimbledon 2023 Daily Service - Day 11

One out of three for the match score predictions yesterday. But odds of 4/1 for Ons Jabeur’s 2-1 win over Elena Rybakina made those three Set Betting picks worthwhile.

I think yesterday’s email was a good example of what we’re trying to do here at Ones at Watch

In the standard Match Winner betting, Jabeur, Aryna Sabalenka, and Daniil Medvedev to all win yesterday would’ve paid around 3/1 for the treble. In comparison, my three Set Betting picks on the same players to win was worth 50/1+...

At the bigger end of the price spectrum, we’re not going to win frequently. But when we do click, we win well…

The same goes of course for our flagship bets in the Outright Winner market. And with these big-odds Each Way selections, I always say: it only takes one…

For Wimbledon 2023, that one player for us is Marketa Vondrousova

Backed at 40/1 or 33/1 last weekend. The world no.42 plays in the women’s semi finals today. Vondrousova is priced as an 8/11 (1.73) favourite to beat Elina Svitolina and reach the final. And now trading at 9/2 (5.5) across the board to go on and win the trophy outright.

We’ve got a big-price underdog on our side. And the bookmakers make our player the favourite to win today’s semi final.

Svitolina v Vondrousova…

The career head-to-head is 3-2 to Svitolina. But Vondrousova has won their last two meetings, including at the 2021 Olympics in Tokyo, which was also a semi final.

Today will be their first encounter since Svitolina became a mother. Marketa and Elina have both got married since they last faced each other. And while Ukrainian Svitolina was on maternity leave last year, Czech Vondrousova was on a long hiatus from the tour due to injury.

This will be a hugely significant and emotional result for whoever reaches the final…

Vondrousova is 24 years old and has reached one Grand Slam final already (French Open 2019 @ 40/1). Svitolina is 28, and while this is her second Wimbledon semi, she is still looking to make it to a first Major final.

In terms of our tournament, this semi final is the ‘money match’: beat Svitolina this afternoon, and 40/1 or 33/1 Vondrousova will bank us an Each Way payout at 1/2 odds.

In other words, we essentially have 20/1 or 16.5/1 for Vondrousova to beat Svitolina. Which is 20/1 or 16.5/1 for an odds-on 8/11 shot according to today’s match prices.

  • If you want to cover the opponent in order to protect your original Vondrousova stakes today, then a chunky bet on Svitolina to win the match would be the move to make, at odds of 11/10 (2.1) in general

Two other factors to consider here. Going back to the big point I made the other day about mental toughness

Vondrousova tends to have a cool, calm look about her most of the time. I have seen nerves get to her before, notably in that maiden Grand Slam final appearance at the French Open back in 2019. She will have learned from that experience. Overall, I have Marketa down in the same intriguing, strong-minded category as her fellow Czech players such as Karolina Muchova and Barbora Krejcikova. That is to say, a little quirky, and crucially, more up for the fight than scared of the occasion.

Svitolina has returned to the tour after becoming a mother, looking more mentally tough than before. In the past, she was respected as a top player, but always referred to as ‘yet to win a Grand Slam.’ For someone once ranked as high as no.3 in the world, that statement is always going to follow them around. Elina is also very open about the fact that she is playing to win not only for herself and her family, but also for her country. The passionate Ukrainian will have the Wimbledon crowd loudly behind her today (as will Ons Jabeur). How the players cope with the atmosphere and emotion may well play a huge part in the outcome of the match.

  • Svitolina v Vondrousova is first on Centre Court, at 1.30pm

Jabeur v Sabalenka…

This afternoon’s second women’s semi final also promises to be a cracker…

While Svitolina v Vondrousova is the world no.72 against the world no.42. Ons Jabeur v Aryna Sabalenka is an all-Top 10 clash…

Jabeur is ranked no.6, and looking to reach what would be a third final from the last five Grand Slams. The 28-year-old Tunisian is looking to win one for the first time. And after losing in the final last summer, Wimbledon is the title that Ons wants the most.

Sabalenka is no.2 in the world, and has now made the semi finals or better in each of the last four Grand Slams, including going all the way and winning a maiden Major at the Australian Open in January of this year.

The bookies make Sabalenka the 8/13 (1.62) favourite to win today. And with world no.1 Iga Swiatek and 2022 Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina both going out in the quarter finals this week, the 25-year-old Belarusian is now the 7/5 (2.4) frontrunner for the trophy.

Jabeur is a 13/10 (2.3) match underdog today. The head-to-head is 3-1 to Sabalenka.

Tight scoreboards in store…

Here’s a Wimbledon stat for you:

  • 10 of the last 12 Wimbledon women’s semi finals have been settled in straight sets, 2-0

We’ve talked before about how the nerve-shredding occasion of a Major semi final can sometimes paralyse a player. If any of these four ladies come out too flat, slow, nervous, or unsure of their game today - then two sets of tennis could be over very quickly…

However, I actually think this afternoon’s matches will buck that two-set trend. Both semis look very competitive…

In the Total Games betting, Bet365 have their line at Over 22.5 Games. Available at odds of 5/6 (1.83) in both cases.

In the Total Sets market, you can get odds-against, around 6/5 (2.2) each for these contests to go to 3 Sets (or ‘Over 2.5 Sets’ as some bookies call it). Rather than choosing a 2-1 Set Betting score for either player, this time, I’m happy to simply play for three sets - and wait for the drama to unfold…

We should also look out for Tiebreak options here…

  • There has been a tiebreak, 7-6 set in each of Svitolina’s last 3 matches - in the 3rd round, last 16, and quarter final. In Vondrousova’s one previous career Grand Slam semi, the score was 7-5, 7-6

  • There has been a tiebreak in 2 of the 4 previous meetings between Jabeur and Sabalenka. Ons lost the first set 7-6 in her quarter final yesterday. Aryna’s recent French Open semi-final defeat featured 2 tiebreaks, and her Australian Open SF saw a 7-6 score in her favour

If as anticipated we get a couple of closely-fought matches and tight scoreboards today. With serve playing an important part, too. Then the tiebreak route is an appealing one to go down - if only the bookies would play ball…

Once again, Oddschecker has served a fault by failing to list the Tiebreak markets. And while a big firm like Skybet isn’t listing this bet this time for some reason. There are a handful of bookmakers prepared to offer us a market…

Bet365 will give you 7/4 (2.75) for ‘Over 0.5 Tiebreaks’ in the Svitolina-Vondrousova match, and 13/8 (2.63) for Jabeur v Sabalenka. William Hill’s ‘Tiebreak in the Match’ is also 7/4 for Svitolina v Vondrousova, and 6/4 (2.5) for Jabeur v Sabalenka.

Boylesports is the best place to go for Tiebreak in the Match prices, with odds of 12/5 (3.4) and 11/5 (3.2), respectively. With Unibet and Betway also offering Tiebreak bets.

Recommended women’s semi-final picks for today - see below for best odds and bookies:

Singles on 3 Sets in both matches (some bookies call this Over 2.5 Sets).

Double on a Tiebreak in both matches (some bookies call this Over 0.5 Tiebreaks).


Ones to Watch picks - Wimbledon:

See above for full details

Svitolina v Vondrousova:

  • Total Sets: 3 Sets @ 11/8 (2.38) Ladbrokes, Coral, 13/10 (2.3) BetVictor, 5/4 (2.25) Unibet, 6/5 (2.2) and 11/10 (2.1) in general  

Jabeur v Sabalenka:

  • Total Sets: 3 Sets @ 11/8 (2.38) Ladbrokes, Coral, BetVictor, 27/20 (2.35) Unibet, 6/5 (2.2) and 11/10 (2.1) in general


  • Tiebreak in the Match: Yes in both matches @ 9.88/1 (10.88) Boylesports, 7.4/1 (8.4) Unibet. Also available at Bet365, William Hill, Betway @ 5/1+ (6.0+) 


I’ll be back on Friday morning with your Day 12 email.

  • You can view every email in the archive on your members-only website here

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Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch