Tennis Betting Advice - July 2023
Wimbledon Day 13: It's all on Vondrousova v Jabeur...
Saturday 15th July 2023
Wimbledon 2023 Daily Service - Day 13
It all boils down to this…
The finals…
On Sunday, we’ll see the Wimbledon men’s match-up that the tennis world was hoping for - Carlos Alcaraz v Novak Djokovic.
And today, we have our 40/1 Each Way Ones to Watch outsider Marketa Vondrousova taking on Ons Jabeur for the women’s title…
Women’s Final - Vondrousova v Jabeur…
Both of these women have made Grand Slam finals before. And we’ve had them on our radar for some time…
Vondrousova was a 40/1 Each Way runner-up for us at the French Open 2019.
Jabeur was our 40/1 early-bird Wimbledon pick last summer - beaten in the final, for an Each Way payout. The Tunisian then went on to reach the US Open 2022 final (at 25/1), and had to settle for second place there, too.
Today, one of these talented women will get to taste Grand Slam glory at last…
It’s no surprise that the bookies make the older player the favourite today. At 28, Jabeur is ranked no.6 in the world, made the final last year, and started this year’s tournament as one of the top six in the Outright Winner betting. Going off at 16/1 on Day 1. Ons is now odds-on at 4/9 (1.44) to fulfil her self-proclaimed Wimbledon destiny.
Get the Czech-book out…
Age 24 and currently ranked no.42, Vondrousova is the latest Czech player to spring a big-odds surprise at a women’s Major. Starting the Wimbledon fortnight as a 150/1 rank outsider, with a negative grass-court match win-loss record, having never previously been past the 2nd round at the All England Club.
The smart left-hander’s run follows on the heels of compatriot Karolina Muchova, who reached a maiden Grand Slam final as a 100/1 underdog at the French Open last month. Joining an exciting/ surprising list of recent Czech success stories, which also includes 2021 French Open champion Barbora Krejcikova (175/1), and 2021 Wimbledon runner-up Karolina Pliskova (50/1).
Here at Wimbledon 2023, Vondrousova is one of four women that made it into our ‘Czech-book’ (sorry!). With 66/1 Muchova, 25/1 Petra Kvitova, and 150/1 Marie Bouzkova all featuring in our Each Way picks.
In total, we backed seven names for the women’s event, and four for the men’s. Meaning we covered 3% of the entire 128-player field in the men’s Wimbledon Outright Winner market, and 5% of the women’s.
We have a very big price running for us…
With a 1/2 odds Each Way payout for Vondrousova already assured by reaching the final. If you’re on Marketa at the advised 40/1, 33/1, or 30/1 (or the standout 50/1 that William Hill served up on Monday). Then you’ve got a very big price riding on the underdog to win this afternoon’s championship match…
As ‘true odds,’ 40/1 and 33/1 equate to our player having less than a 3% chance of taking the trophy. But now that Vondrousova is into the final and it’s now a two-horse race, the bookies make our charge 15/8 (2.88) at best to beat Jabeur. A matchday price that gives the crafty Czech more like a 34% chance of winning.
The head-to-head between Vondrousova and Jabeur is level at 3-3 (or 3-2 to Jabeur if you take out an injury retirement). Vondrousova has won their last two meetings, which have both come this season: on hard courts at the Australian Open in January, and then at Indian Wells in March.
None of their previous six encounters have come in a semi final or final. And once again, nerves could prove a deciding factor today.
Indoor form a potential positive…
Another element to consider this afternoon is the weather. It’s not exactly looking like glorious summer sunshine at the moment. If the Centre Court roof does end up being closed today, then that could help Vondrousova…
In the quarter finals against Jessica Pegula, Marketa was trailing the American 1-3 in the deciding set - before the roof went on. When play resumed, the left-hander proceeded to turn the match on its head. I’m not saying the ‘indoor’ factor made all the difference. But it certainly helped.
The Czech player has a highly impressive official indoor record (eg. designated indoor hard-court events), with a 59-13 career match win-loss stat, for an 81.94% win-rate. Jabeur’s figure is 60.67%. Those formbook numbers don’t take into account occasions such as this week’s grass-court quarter final, when the roof was used.
As we noted back in January, when following Marketa at 33/1 during the Australian Open. The understated Vondrousova has quietly displayed her commitment to the sport by working hard behind the scenes to come back from wrist surgery. Playing - and winning - a low-key, lower-tier ITF tournament indoors over here in Shrewsbury last November. There will only have been a modest smattering of coaching staff and officials courtside for that event. This afternoon, Vondrousova will play to a full house on Centre Court at Wimbledon…
Serving stats…
In terms of match betting opportunities for us today, the serving stats point the way to two bets. With a few bookies offering these markets:
In each of the last four meetings between these two, Jabeur has hit the Most Aces - and Vondrousova has served the Most Double Faults.
The Wimbledon 2023 stats frank that formbook history, too. With Jabeur ahead of Vondrousova in the Total Aces count this tournament, and vice versa for Double Faults. Those look pretty solid figures to follow for a couple of serve-based bets today.
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Ones to Watch picks - Wimbledon:
See above for full details
Women’s Final - Marketa Vondrousova v Ons Jabeur
2pm
Most Aces: Jabeur @ 4/5 (1.8) Bet365, BetVictor, 8/11 (1.73) SportingBet, 7/10 (1.7) Unibet, 8/13 (1.62) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
Most Double Faults: Vondrousova @ 8/15 (1.53) Bet365, BetVictor, SportingBet
Boylesports also have these bets available, listed in their ‘Invent A Bet’ markets. Worded as ‘Jabeur to serve most aces’ @ 8/11 (1.73). And ‘Jabeur to have the fewest double faults’ @ 1/2 (1.5). Betfred also have these options, in their ‘Pick Your Punt - Bet Request’ list - including Jabeur Most Aces @ 8/11.
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I’ll be back on Sunday morning with your Day 14 email, looking at the men’s final…
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone