Tennis Betting Advice - July 2023
Wimbledon Day 14: Alcaraz v Djokovic - and a big win...
Sunday 16th July 2023
Wimbledon 2023 Daily Service - Day 14
Yesterday was a good day. And in a two-week tournament like this, when you’re backing 40/1 and 33/1 shots - it only takes one…
Our Ones to Watch pick Marketa Vondrousova did us proud.
The 24-year-old Czech took home the trophy - and landed the big odds. Winning the final in straight sets, 6-4, 6-4. Claiming her first Grand Slam title. And becoming not only the first unseeded woman in history to win Wimbledon, but also only the fifth left-hander to do so.
On the day, Vondrousova held her nerve better than her opponent. Nerves and pressure were something we’d highlighted about Ons Jabeur throughout the tournament; indeed, those concerns - along with a less-than-exciting price of 16/1 at best - were the primary reasons we swerved last year’s Wimbledon runner-up for this summer’s event.
While the hungry big-odds muncher in me feels a slight pang at not being able to say we backed rank outsider Vondrousova at 150/1 before a ball was hit (!). We got on halfway through the tournament, and odds of 40/1 and 33/1 are hardly to be sniffed at. If you managed to get the 50/1 that William Hill dangled - let me know.
If you watched the hours of BBC coverage yesterday, you’ll have heard Clare Balding and co exclaim several times that ‘no-one picked Vondrousova’...
This is a rare occasion where I’m going to allow myself a pat on the back. As I also didn’t see or hear anyone else talking about the indoor form of Vondrousova - something we discussed in yesterday’s analysis. Due to high winds, the decision was made to play the whole of the final with the roof over Centre Court.
All’s well that ends well…
Never let it be said that I’m melodramatic… but with this being the 10th anniversary of my first Daily Wimbledon Email Service. And with this year’s event kicking off just days after my wife and new baby daughter arrived home from hospital…
Some mornings over the last couple of weeks, to be honest, it’s been a real effort just to get downstairs and onto my computer in order to sit down and produce my daily write-ups. I love it, of course. The tennis, the big odds. The excitement. The stats. The underdogs. But this one felt like a challenge (or as the youngsters today put it: the struggle is real!).
As I said when mum & baby got out of hospital: all’s well that ends well. And after yesterday’s women’s final - the same can be said for this Wimbledon service! I was given a bottle of champagne the other day. It might be time to get it out of the fridge.
How was it for you?
I hope you’ve enjoyed the daily coverage. And if you were on Vondrousova and bagged a good payout, I’d really love to hear about it…
As well as helping us promote the Ones to Watch service to potential newcomers. Your comments and winning stories mean a lot. In fact, they make all those hours spent staring at my computer screen worthwhile…
Your honest feedback is welcome. Email me at:
oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Lots more to come…
Tennis continues this coming week, with five tournaments on the ATP and WTA Tours. Including the last grass-court event of the summer, and the only one held outside of Europe: the annual Hall of Fame Open at Newport, Rhode Island, USA.
Along with four clay-court tournaments in Europe starting from Monday. Before the tours gradually transition to hard courts ready for the build-up to the next Grand Slam, the US Open in New York, which is coming up at the end of August.
Lots to look forward to, as ever. Not least the men’s final at Wimbledon this afternoon…
Men’s Final - Alcaraz v Djokovic…
My general take on Carlos Alcaraz v Novak Djokovic today is that this is a genuine ‘popcorn’ match. One to sit down and enjoy.
The Top 2 in the men’s game as it stands. And also a battle of the generations, with 20-year-old Alcaraz looking to win his first Wimbledon title - and 36-year-old Djokovic questing to rewrite the history books, and win his eighth. In doing so, drawing level with the great Roger Federer…
The bookies make Novak the favourite, at 8/15 (1.53) with Bet365, William Hill, and BetVictor. And 1.54 on the Betfair Exchange. As I write first thing this morning, there’s over half a million pounds matched on Alcaraz v Djokovic on Betfair. I’d expect that to be in the millions by this afternoon. This is a seriously big tennis match…
Carlos is the underdog at around 13/8 (2.63). He’s already so good and been so successful, that any occasion when you can back the young Spaniard as a match underdog is now a rarity. If ever it was justified right now though, it’s here on Centre Court against Djokovic. A man going after the calendar Grand Slam this year, with the Serbian winning machine having already banked the Australian Open and French Open titles this season.
The head-to-head is level at 1-1 - with both meetings coming in semi finals. Alcaraz beat Djokovic 2-1 on clay at ATP Madrid last year. More recently and perhaps more significantly, Djokovic won 3-1 in last month’s French Open match-up, with Carlos suffering badly from cramps and unable to compete at anything like full capacity for the final two sets.
We bagged two winners in the women’s final by playing the serving stats. Backing the match favourite for the Most Aces, and the underdog to serve the most Double Faults. The stats point to the same pair of bets today. With Djokovic coming out on top for Most Aces in both previous meetings with Alcaraz. And the Spaniard racking-up more Double Faults than Novak during this tournament…
As with yesterday, the Oddschecker site is no use once again for finding these markets. I’ve listed below the best prices that I’ve found for Djokovic Most Aces, and Alcaraz Most Double Faults.
Enjoy the match…
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Ones to Watch picks - Wimbledon:
See above for full details
Men’s Final - Carlos Alcaraz v Novak Djokovic
2pm
Most Aces: Djokovic @ 8/13 (1.62) BetVictor, Boylesports (listed in ‘Invent A Bet’ markets), 3/5 (1.6) SportingBet, 4/7 (1.57) Betfred (listed in ‘Pick Your Punt - Bet Requests’ markets), 11/20 (1.55) Unibet, 1/2 (1.5) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 4/9 (1.44) Bet365
Most Double Faults: Alcaraz @ 8/13 (1.62) Bet365, 4/7 (1.57) Betfred (listed in ‘Pick Your Punt - Bet Requests’ markets), 11/20 (1.55) Unibet, 8/15 (1.53) SportingBet, 1/2 (1.5) BetVictor
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I’ll be back next week with more big-price picks and analysis for you…
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone