Tennis Betting Advice - July 2024
On the comeback in Newport at 25/1…
Tuesday 16th July 2024
The Hall of Fame Open at Rhode Island stands as something of an outlier on the annual ATP calendar. The Newport event is played on grass, but comes after Wimbledon – and takes place outside of Europe…
It’s a historic venue though – the original tournament morphed into what is now the US Open. And as such, the Hall of Fame Open always draws a strong contingency of US players – despite only being a ‘250 grade’ tournament…
Long-time Ones to Watch readers will know the drill for ATP Newport in July: big servers do well here; even more so American ones…
Nine of the last 14 champions here have the stars & stripes flag by their name.
And as for the big-serving angle. I make it 11 of the last 14 Newport winners ticking that box. And if we throw America’s 2018 champ Steve Johnson in there, too – then that makes 12 of the last 14 champions registering over 6ft tall…
The Opelka serve is back…
The height issue counts for a lot here. The higher you can serve from, the greater bounce you can get on these Newport grass courts. I’ve seen some crazy high bounces at this venue before. Check out the turf for yourself this week if you can, with this tournament being covered live on the Sky Sports Tennis channel (and Interactive ‘red button’ options).
And if it’s the tallest player on the tour you’re looking for, then that man is 6’11” Reilly Opelka. I watched the 26-year-old American play his comeback match here last night. Opelka has been off the main tour for nearly two years, after a series of injury layoffs. Resulting in a current ranking outside the world’s top 1,000 (although he has been top 20 before).
Reilly was pragmatic in his comments after yesterday’s 1st-round win. But he did acknowledge that the big serve was back in the deciding set: Reilly clubbed down 13 of his 16 match Aces in that third set, and won 100% of 1st Serve Points in the decider (22 out of 22).
Of course, we can’t know how Opelka’s body will hold up this week. And there is an air of him just being happy to be back out there playing. But these guys are always out to win if they can. And with Opelka facing an out-of-form Adrian Mannarino in the next round, now could be the time to take a chance on the American at a decent underdog price in the Outright Winner market, with a standout 25/1 available today…
Mannarino stands a full foot shorter than Opelka, and 10 years older. The 5’11” Frenchman is the reigning champion here in Newport. But the 36-year-old has been in poor form on the grass so far this summer, with a match win-loss record of 1-4. Add in the fact that Opelka leads their career head-to-head 3-0, and the case for the big-serving American underdog has plenty enough intrigue for us to get involved.
With former Hall of Fame winners and 6’10” ace merchants John Isner and Ivo Karlovic now retired, Reilly has the chance to add his name to the ATP Newport winners’ roster, too.
Teenager on the up…
Elsewhere in this side of the draw, names to consider include the all-American clash in the next round, Alex Michelsen v Maxime Cressy. The former reached the final last year; the latter won this title in 2022. The 19-year-old Michelsen is the favourite, and beat Cressy in three sets here in the very 1st round last year, when Maxime was attempting to defend his title.
The 27-year-old Cressy has featured most often in Ones to Watch notes of late for his propensity to serve up Double Faults. That Achilles Heel in his game was in evidence again on Monday, with Cressy piling up a staggering 23 double faults (to 14 aces). He managed to win the match in three sets, but won the same number of Total Points as his diminutive opponent, the 5’9” Radu Albot of Moldova. It was close.
Cressy stands 6’7”, and is 12/1 for the title as I write. Michelsen is 6’4” – and priced at 9/1 or 8/1 at best. One of those two will be out in the next round.
In the opposite side of the draw, I’m willing to side with a European youngster making waves on the tour this season…
Czech teenager Jakub Mensik is one to watch. Odds of 18/1 catch the eye today. The 18-year-old has reached a debut ATP final this year, finishing runner-up in Doha – having gone off that week as a 150/1 rank outsider. He stands 6’4” and his serve is a strong weapon. But what I really like about him as a breakthrough player at the moment is his mindset; whenever I’ve seen Jakub play a higher-ranked/ more famous opponent, he has applied himself very well, and looked up for taking the scalp. That’s the mentality we want.
Mensik is ranked no.79. Fitness permitting, he’ll be able to go much higher. On his way up the ladder, we’ll look to back him where and when we can…
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
ATP Newport – Infosys Hall of Fame Open
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
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Play starts at 4pm, UK time. Bookies will take down the Outright Winner market during play.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at:
oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone