Tennis Betting Advice - July 2025
Ones to Watch in Washington at 20/1 and 300/1...
Monday 21st July 2025
I’m back from my holiday in Dorset. And as promised, you & I are off to the States this week…
The build-up to the US Open gets underway with the joint ATP & WTA 500-grade event in Washington D.C…
There are also a couple of tournaments taking place on clay in Europe. But between now and the end of the summer, we’re all about the North American hard courts, with the trip to the Big Apple in our sights.
On to this week’s action now. Play starts in Washington from 4pm, UK time. Live on Sky Sports Tennis…
This time last year we had Sebastian Korda as an 8/1 winner of this event. The American isn’t here this week to defend his title.
The 2024 runner-up Flavio Cobolli is here to try and protect his ranking points though, and odds of 22/1 do hold some appeal for the talented young Italian. On the one hand, Cobolli is in form and full of confidence, having made a surprise run to the Wimbledon quarter finals, and backed it up with three match wins for his country at the Hopman Cup last week. On the other hand, that’s a lot of high-intensity tennis in a short space of time, and maybe the 23-year-old will run out of steam before regrouping for the rest of the campaign.
Indeed, several high-profile names have already pulled out of the upcoming Masters 1000 events in the run-up to New York, with eyes clearly on the Grand Slam prize at the US Open (Wimbledon champion Jannik Sinner, to name just one).
Missing stars are generally bad for event organisers, but good for us in terms of opening up the fields for lesser-known players to come through and reach a final or win a trophy - if the odds suit, of course…
In years gone by Washington has served up its fair share of big-odds results, including these finalists since the pandemic: Cobolli was the 25/1 runner-up last year, Dan Evans the 28/1 champ in 2023, Tallon Griekspoor 40/1 runner-up 2023, Yoshihito Nishioka a 100/1 runner-up in 2022, and Mackenzie McDonald a beaten 66/1 finalist in 2021.
This being Ones to Watch, we’ll take the underdog route once again…
Hard and fast at 20/1…
JIRI LEHECKA featured heavily in our pre-season Ones to Watch 2025 Report (view it here), and since then, the hard-hitting 23-year-old Czech has added a second ATP title to his CV. Both trophies to date - ATP Adelaide and ATP Brisbane - came on outdoor hard courts.
This guy showed several glimpses of what he can do with his hard and fast game on the grass this summer, too, reaching the final at Queen’s at 25/1.
We’ll take 20/1 for Jiri here. This is his first visit to ATP Washington. I reckon Lehecka has the power and ball-striking capabilities to do well at this venue.
I’d also be interested in having a look at Reilly Opelka at fancy prices (66/1), but while all four of the 27-year-old 6’11” American’s ATP titles have come in the States, the current world no.74 is yet to win two matches in a row here at Washington, in six career visits.
Teenager too big at 300/1…
Heading down to the triple-figure quotes, one player that jumps off the page for me at a very big looking 300/1 is American teenager, LEARNER TIEN. The world no.67 is having a breakthrough season, having announced himself on the big stage with a six-match winning streak at the Australian Open in January, coming through qualifying to reach the 4th round proper (last 16) on his tournament debut. The exciting left-hander backed that up with a quarter final - also on outdoor hard courts - at Acapulco in February.
The 19-year-old has taken a couple of scalps already this season. Learner beat Daniil Medvedev at the Aussie Open, and Alexander Zverev in Acapulco - both multiple Major finalists. As I said when backing Eala for the US Open the other day, we love to get behind youngsters who don’t fear the big names, and actually relish the opportunity to show what they can do. My gut instinct this week for Washington: 300/1 looks too big for a talent like Tien.
We’ll also be on the lookout for opportunities in the women’s Citi Open event this week. On paper, big names Jessica Pegula and Elena Rybakina may prove hard to beat in the top half of the draw, but odds of 9/2 (5.5) at best don’t appeal to me. In the bottom half of the WTA Washington draw, it’s likewise for Emma Navarro at 9/1 or shorter. None of those favourites are unbeatable, and all three will surely be most invested in getting fit and ready for New York next month. As always, I’ll be in touch if any outsiders catch the eye at attractive prices.
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
ATP Washington - Mubadala Citi DC Open
Outright Winner - Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Jiri Lehecka @ 20/1 Betfred, Boylesports, BetVictor, 18/1 William Hill, 16/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, Betway
Learner Tien @ 300/1 Bet365, Boylesports, Unibet, Betway, Star Sports, 250/1 William Hill, 888 Sport, 200/1 Betfred, 100/1 BetVictor
Still to price up at time of writing: Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook.
Play starts from 4pm, UK time. Bookies take down Outright Winner markets during each day’s matches.
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P.S
Thanks for all your emails since Wimbledon, regarding the Text Message Tips feedback request (read more here). I’ll be in touch with an update on that topic in due course.
Want to get in touch? You can email me direct at:
oliver@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone