Tennis Betting Advice - June 2019
French Open: Semi Final pick – Federer v Nadal…
Friday 7th June 2019
French Open - Bets of the Day
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to Day 13 of your French Open 2019 daily service.
After reigning champion Simona Halep was knocked out yesterday, Ashleigh Barty is the new favourite to win the Women’s French Open.
As the only Top 10 player (No.8) left in the draw, Barty makes sense. But in all honesty, this tournament is wide open…
In terms of experience, Johanna Konta is the only one of the final four to have played in a Grand Slam semi final before. Jo’s been to this stage twice, in Australia in 2016 and at Wimbledon in 2017.
Barty, 17-year-old Amanda Anisimova and 19-year-old Marketa Vondrousova are making their Grand Slam semi final debuts.
Experience – or lack of – could prove significant, as nerves are sure to play a part today. And with this draw looking the way it does, it’s fair to say this is the best opportunity any of these four players have ever had to win a Grand Slam trophy.
On the other hand, you could argue that the two teenagers, Anisimova and Vondrousova, are playing without fear with nothing to lose. It’s all set up very nicely, either way…
Here’s how the Women’s Outright Winner market looks this morning:
Barty 17/10 (2.70)
Konta 12/5 (3.40)
Vondrousova 4/1 (5.00)
Anisimova 4/1 (5.00)
On day one of the tournament those prices were a lot different…
Barty 22/1 (23.00)
Anisimova 100/1 (101.00)
Vondrousova 40/1 (41.00)
Konta 50/1 (51.00)
We’re in a great position having backed Konta at 40/1 or 33/1 Each Way ahead of the 3rd Round, and Vondrousova at 40/1 Each Way at the start of the tournament.
With our two picks facing each other today, we’re assured of a big price in the final – and a place payout in the region of 20/1 (Each Way terms 1/2 odds).
The Women’s semi finals are first on the schedule at 10am – Barty v Anisimova and Konta v Vondrousova.
The Men are on at 11.50am…
Top 4 in the Men’s…
In stark comparison to the Women’s event, the Men’s draw has panned out exactly as the bookies had it, with the Top 4 seeds all making it through:
Novak Djokovic v Dominic Thiem
Roger Federer v Rafael Nadal
And throughout the tournament, the top of the Outright Winner market has barely flickered…
On day one:
Nadal 10/11 (1.91)
Djokovic 5/2 (3.50)
Thiem 7/1 (8.00)
Federer 33/1 (34.00)
Nadal 4/7 (1.57)
Djokovic 11/4 (3.75)
Thiem 8/1 (9.00)
Federer 18/1 (19.00)
Djokovic v Thiem could be a great match, with fitness, power & agility the three buzzwords. World No.1 Novak is the favourite, at 4/9 (1.44). But the Austrian has gone semi final – semi final – final in his last three attempts in Paris, and is respected in the match betting today at odds of 7/4 (2.75) for the upset. On clay, the head-to-head is 3-2 to Djokovic. They’ve met twice before at the French Open, with one win each.
11/4 pick for Roger v Rafa…
The box office semi final is of course Federer v Nadal. The two living legends of the game face off for a 39th (!) competitive meeting, aged 37 and 33 respectively…
Eight of their last 10 encounters have come in finals or semi finals. This is world class stuff.
I’ve been looking at two areas – Double Faults and Set Betting – and I’ve got one pick for us.
First up the serving stats and there’s an interesting pattern in the numbers here, with four of their last six meetings seeing both players hit exactly the same number of Double Faults. And in their last nine encounters, the tally has either been level, or settled by a margin of just one Double Fault.
Double faults in the tournament so far (5 matches):
Skybet make Nadal the 5/6 (1.83) for the Most Double Faults. The Draw is 7/2 (4.50). Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook’s market is money back if it’s a tie, with Nadal the 4/6 (1.67) favourite.
The Double Faults ‘Draw’ looks a decent option but it’s a rather speculative bet and also is only available with Skybet.
There’s a stronger ‘percentage pick’ that’s widely available…
Nadal is 5-0 v Federer at the French Open, but only one of those wins has come in straight sets. The other four have all been 3-1.
A few years have passed since their rivalry was at its peak, but both men arrive in the semis in great from, dropping just one set each so far. And while they haven’t met on clay since 2013, Federer has won their last five meetings overall going back to the 2017 Australian Open final. Fed can get on the board here.
The Set Betting 3-1 score offers a way to get an odds-against price on the Clay Court King. Nadal is just 1/7 (1.14) to win the match, and also odds-on at 10/11 (1.91) to win 3-0. The 3-1 option is the percentage pick at odds of 11/4 (3.75). In the historical Roger & Rafa rivalry at Roland Garros, that bet has given a 200% ROI to level stakes and paid out four times out of five.
Roger Federer v Rafael Nadal
BET: Set Betting – Nadal to win 3-1 @ 11/4
BOOKIES: 11/4 (3.75) Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, Marathonbet, 5/2 (3.50) in general
I’ll be back tomorrow at 8am with your Bets of the Day for Saturday.
I’ve been enjoying hearing from members and fielding your questions during the tournament. If you need or want to, you can message me at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Enjoy the tennis…