Tennis Betting Advice - June 2019

French Open: Women’s Final – Barty v 40/1 Vondrousova…

Saturday 8th June 2019

French Open - Bets of the Day

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Women’s Final…
  • Guarantee a profit…
  • Play starts 11am…

Good morning and welcome to Day 14 of your French Open 2019 daily service.

We weren’t far off with our Federer v Nadal pick yesterday. Roger had the lead in the second set but let it slip. That was our chance to get the 3-1 Nadal set score. Rafa went on to win 3-0 (6-3, 6-4, 6-2) in very blustery conditions…

Despite the dodgy weather, there were only 2 Double Faults in the match (1-1). Meaning that for the 5th time in 7 meetings between Roger & Rafa, the Most Double Faults market ended up paying out on the ‘Draw.’

Moving on to the Outright Winner markets, where we’re in a great position…

Ashleigh Barty v Marketa Vondrousova

Women’s Final, 2pm

We’ve reached the Women’s Final with one of our initial Outright Winner picks still standing. In fact, she’s been the form player of the tournament…

Marketa Vondrousova has come through the draw without dropping a set. The official French Open website’s ‘Infosys Slam Leaderboard’ has her rated in 1st place, albeit just one ratings point ahead of Ashleigh Barty.

Marketa has had to save six set points across her last two matches, but the formbook paints a simpler picture and says the 19-year-old has played six matches at the French Open 2019 and won them all 2-0.

We’re on the 19-year-old from the Czech Republic at 40/1 (41.00) Each Way. Vondrousova goes into today’s final as the slight underdog against Barty, at a top price 7/5 (2.40).

I’m expecting a good match. And I certainly feel Vondrousova can do this. In terms of nerves, both players will have their moments. But I’d say both players are equally likely to get broken if they have the chance to serve for the match – and both have the ability to fight back. Barty is tough. Vondrousova is ice cool. It’s probably going to be close…

Vondrousova’s last two matches have seen narrow score-lines, with a 7-6, 7-5 in the quarter final v Petra Martic and a 7-5, 7-6 v Johanna Konta in the semi final.

Barty came from behind to beat 17-year-old Amanda Anisimova yesterday, 6-7, 6-3, 6-3 – having at one stage led 5-0 in the first set. Before that, the 23-year-old Australian beat Madison Keys 6-3, 7-5 in the quarter finals, and her 4th Round match against Sofia Kenin went the distance to a deciding set.

In terms of the stats markets today, the numbers make it pretty clear why the bookies have Barty odds-on to serve the Most Aces – and Vondrousova odds-on for the Most Double Faults. So far in the tournament:

Barty Aces: 35
Voundrousova Aces: 8

Barty Double Faults: 14
Vondrousova Double Faults: 22

Going back to the bigger picture, we’re in a very good position here with 40/1 Vondrousova on our side, with an Each Way place payout assured. To ensure we end the tournament in profit overall, the simple and sensible move today is to back Barty to win…

Guarantee a profit…

Based on the advice given out over the course of the tournament, here’s the profit & loss situation – and my recommendation for today.

As it stands:

Tournament overall to date (to advised stakes):
Staked = 23 pts
Returned = 0 pts
Open = 2 pts (Vondrousova @ 40/1 Each Way)
Profit/ Loss = -21 pts

Possible outcomes:

Vondrousova finishes runner-up (20/1 place payout):
Staked = 23 pts
Returned = 21 pts
Profit/ Loss = -2 pts

Vondrousova wins (full 40/1 Each Way payout):
Staked = 23 pts
Returned = 62 pts
Profit/ Loss = +39 pts

We can make sure we end up in profit whoever wins today by backing Barty @ 8/13 (1.62)…

Staking 20 pts on Barty to win @ 8/13 would make our overall figures look like this:

If Barty wins:
Staked = 43 pts
Returned = 53.3 pts
Profit/ Loss = +10.3 pts

If Vondrousova wins:
Staked = 43 pts
Returned = 62 pts
Profit/ Loss = +19 pts

Today’s bet:

SAVER BET – only place this bet if you backed Vondrousova as previously advised

Match Winner:

STAKE: 20 pts
BET: Ashleigh Barty to beat Marketa Vondrousova @ 8/13
BOOKIES: 8/13 (1.62) William Hill, Bet365, Betway, NetBet, Ladbrokes, Coral, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

Latest odds here

I’ll be back on Sunday morning with a look at the Men’s Final.

I’ve been enjoying hearing from members and fielding your questions during the tournament. You can message me at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch