Tennis Betting Advice - June 2019

French Open: Men’s Final – Thiem v Nadal…

Sunday 9th June 2019

French Open - Bets of the Day

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Men’s Final…
  • Double Fault stats…
  • Play starts 2pm…

Good morning and welcome to Day 15 of your French Open 2019 daily service.

The Women’s Final ended up being one of those ‘flat’ ones, with little to get the crowd going. We were right to shift some profit over to Ashleigh Barty, as the Aussie proved far too good on the day for our 40/1 Each Way pick, Marketa Vondrousova. Barty won 6-1, 6-3.

Turning 20 later this month, we’ll have more chances to back Vondrousova in the future.

It’s always going to be a good tournament if you get a 40/1 shot into a final. We didn’t get the big payout, but we got the place returns – and a profit thanks to yesterday’s match bet on Barty.

Dominic Thiem v Rafael Nadal

Men’s Final, 2pm

It’s a big day for ‘team Thiem’…

First up on Court Philippe-Chatrier at 10.30am (live on Eurosport), Dominic’s girlfriend Kristina Mladenovic will have the home crowd rooting for her and Doubles partner Timea Babos. Mladenovic & Babos are currently on a nine-match winning streak having won the WTA Istanbul title before Roland Garros, with a 9-0 record on clay this year.

Remarkably, the pair have reached a third successive Grand Slam final in Women’s Doubles. However, one thing that might put you off backing the 2nd seeds at short odds this morning: Mladenovic & Babos have lost those last two finals, at the Australian Open in January and the US Open last summer.

Unseeded partnership Ying-Ying Duan & Saisai Zheng are the 3/1 (4.00) underdogs today. Mladenovic & Babos are 1/4 (1.25) favourites.

After that match, the Men’s Final is scheduled for 2pm…

This is a re-match of last year’s French Open final with Rafael Nadal a 2/9 (1.22) favourite to win a 12th Roland Garros title. Dominic Thiem is the 7/2 (4.50) outsider, but we should be in for a competitive match here, even if the final scoreboard ends up as expected with the Spaniard celebrating in Paris once again…

The career head-to-head is 8-4 to Rafa (7-4 on clay). Thiem has beaten Nadal on clay once already this season, as he has done in each of the last four years. The big question is, can the 25-year-old Austrian beat the Clay Court King ‘on his patch’ here on the big court at Roland Garros. They’ve met three times at the French Open, including the final in 2018 and semi final in 2017, and Nadal has won 3-0 each time.

Most Double Faults…

Looking beyond the Match Winner betting, the Most Double Faults market has Rafa as a marginal favourite. Thiem is the pick for me at 11/8 (2.38) or 5/4 (2.25).

So far in the tournament Nadal has served 15 Double Faults and Thiem has got 13. There’s not much in it, and even when you average out the figures ‘per set’ played (Thiem has played more sets), there’s still hardly anything between them.

More significantly, the head-to-head stats show that Thiem has got the Most Double Faults in 5 of his last 6 meetings with Nadal. Including in the final here last year, and the semi final the year before.

Nadal is ranked No.1 at the French Open 2019 for Receiving Points Won. He’s an absolute menace if you put second serves up to him. That pressure will probably tell a few times this afternoon – with the logic being that Thiem will commit a few Double Faults.

  • The advice is to back Thiem at 11/8 or 5/4 in the markets with no ‘draw’ option here (Betway, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook), as they void bets if the Double Faults result is a tie. The next best option is Thiem +0.5 Double Faults Handicap at around 5/6 (1.83), which pays out on Thiem or the Draw. (Skybet have Thiem at 5/4 but they have the Draw as a separate option)

Today’s bet:

Dominic Thiem v Rafael Nadal

BET: Most Double Faults – Thiem @ 11/8
BOOKIES: 11/8 (2.38) Betway, 5/4 (2.25) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

  • Also available: Thiem +0.5 @ 22/25 (1.88) 888 Sport, Unibet, 5/6 (1.83) NetBet, 10Bet

Latest odds here

Grass court season tomorrow…

The build-up to Wimbledon starts now. The grass court season starts at 10am Monday morning. We’ll be kicking off the week with our first picks on the green stuff. There are four tournaments taking place – check out the June calendar here.

It’s been great to be in touch with you all during the tournament. Email your French Open war stories to me at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch