Tennis Betting Advice - June 2020
Why the new ATP & WTA schedules get my juices flowing...
Thursday 18th June 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Right player, wrong result…
Ones to Watch is all about finding big prices. The tasty odds are where we get our best days, our chunkiest payouts – and our positive bottom line.
When it all goes right, as it has done a few times in the last month or so, with a couple of 4/1 shots in the daily matches, my big-odds tactic makes total sense, and it’s all smiles.
When it doesn’t quite go to plan, I can end up with a bit of egg on my face. But that’s okay. It washes off…
Since last Saturday, for example, I’ve highlighted three players in the matchday markets: Peter Torebko, Jurgen Melzer and Francesca Di Lorenzo were all the ‘right’ players to be backing. As all three won the matches in question.
However, rather than take the odds-on Match Winner prices of 5/6, 1/2 and 8/13 respectively. I took the more aggressive stance – going for 2-0 or 2-1 score-lines in the Set Betting markets, at greater odds of 2/1, 7/2 and 15/4.
None of those three price picks came in this week. Soaking up results like those and bouncing back is what it’s all about for me. You have to develop a thick skin.
When I can name three players to win a match, but come out on the losing side of the betting each time, I have to allow myself a wry smile. It’s better than getting cross, or down about it – and there’s no need to. Because it’s all good in the long run…
This is what really gets my juices flowing…
While not enough to book any 2021 holidays, a 10% ROI from our ‘lockdown’ match picks since the start of May is a profitable bottom line nonetheless.
And when the ATP & WTA Tours return in August – followed by the US Open – we’ll be back hunting in the markets where the glory days can really come along…
I’m talking about our Ones to Watch specialist area: Outright Winner betting. Specifically, Each Way picks on appealing outsiders at attractive odds.
There will rarely be a better example of that than our 50/1 success on Sofia Kenin at the Australian Open in January.
And that’s why yesterday’s announcements from the ATP & WTA are such good news for us…
Not just because it will be great to have the official pro tours back. That goes without saying. But because the weekly tournaments will provide us with the betting lifeblood that we’ve been deprived of since the first week of March. Yes, folks, Outright Winner betting will be back on the menu…
As I’ve said already during lockdown, when it comes to our Ones to Watch activity: there’s nothing – nothing – that gets my juices going like a day-one tournament draw…
The players, the seeds, the prices, the possibilities… I’m getting excited just thinking about it.
Before the international virus crisis stopped all the sport, we had made a sparkling start to 2020 with a handful of Each Way picks making finals at nice prices: 16/1 (won), 50/1 (won), 22/1 (runner-up), 25/1 (runner-up), 10/1 (won).
Those five results were enough to set our early year-to-date stall out with a 102% ROI from Outright Winner picks on their own.
Success in the Outright markets is amplified in a way that’s hard to replicate from any one-off match result.
Just five payouts have been required from a total of 36 Each Way picks so far in 2020. Because it’s not about the strike-rate, it’s about the prices.
New dates for the diary…
I cannot wait to get stuck back into the Outright Winner markets and tournament draws.
These are the new dates on the official calendars, after Wednesday’s press releases:
With events running throughout August, building up to the US Open in New York on 31st August.
And before the return to ‘normal’ action, we have a busy-looking schedule of new, small competitions and exhibition events continuing this month, and throughout July…
Battle of the Brits next week…
I’m still hopeful of seeing an Outright Winner market for the ‘Battle of the Brits’ in London next week. Come on, bookies. One of you stick your neck out...
Regardless of whether we get an Outright market next week, we’ll be following the daily matches and keeping a keen eye out for any value in the matches.
The Battle of the Brits starts at the National Tennis Centre in Roehampton on Tuesday.
That’s all from me today. I’ll be in touch again soon. And definitely by Tuesday morning, ahead of the start of play in London.
Enjoy the tennis,
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson