Tennis Betting Advice - June 2021

French Open: Day 12 - Double Faults, and a 29/1 Double...

Thursday 10th June 2021

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • French Open – Day 12…
  • Semi Finals…
  • Most Double Faults…

Good morning and welcome to Day 12 of your French Open 2021 daily service.

Big points…

We’ve spoken already in this tournament about how some points are bigger than others…

How close can you get to a 12/1 winner? Coco Gauff had two set points to land the 7-6 Set Score in the 1st Set v Barbora Krejcikova yesterday, but couldn’t make them count.

We got the Tiebreak in the Match though, at 11/4 (3.75). And to be fair, prior to the scoreboard reaching 6-6, the Czech player had already saved three other set points, that would’ve seen Gauff take the set 6-3, or 7-5. Fine margins.

The serving stats helped us find a good line of enquiry in that match. The Double Faults caught my eye in particular, with the tally ending a high 8-7 to Krejcikova. There were plenty of very nervy and wobbly moments on second serves in that quarter final. I can foresee a good few more situations like that today, as the stakes are raised once again…

Women’s Semi Finals…

All tournament we’ve been talking up the chances of another big-odds, first-time winner here at Roland Garros. This year’s semi final line-up shows just how wide open the women’s Grand Slams are right now. Just look at the size of these pre-tournament Outright Winner odds (top prices):

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (150/1) v Tamara Zidansek (1,000/1)

Barbora Krejcikova (175/1) v Maria Sakkari (66/1)

That means there are going to be a couple of whopping prices in the final once again. And seeing as none of those four players have ever made it to a Grand Slam final before – let alone won one – this stat will only get stronger:

  • The last 13 women’s French Open titles have been claimed by 11 different players. The last 5 champions were all new names on the trophy – and 2 of those were 100/1 shots

I’ve got a couple of angles for today’s semi finals…

Krejcikova for the Most Double Faults v Sakkari

Having watched yesterday’s match, I’ll be very surprised if Krejcikova doesn’t cough up a handful or more double faults again today. She hit eight of them yesterday, doubling her tally for the tournament in one go.

Sakkari has served two more double faults than the Czech player overall this fortnight (18-16), but only registered two on Thursday, when taking out the reigning champ Iga Swiatek.

Sakkari is a fierce attacker, and will be all over Krejcikova’s second serves today. Skybet agree with me, and have the Czech as an odds-on favourite for the Most Double Faults, at 8/11 (1.73). But other firms are going odds-against, at 6/4 (2.5) and 11/8 (2.38), and that looks good to me.

Set Betting ‘underdog’ double @ 29/1

Not for the first time, we’re in anything-can-happen territory at the business end of a women’s ‘Slam. Two of the four quarter finals went to the wire, 8-6 and 9-7 in the final set. The other two were done in two hard-fought sets.

Recent French Open semi finals have tended to be one-sided affairs on the match scoreboard: five of the last six have been settled in straight sets, 2-0. The year 100/1 outsider Jelena Ostapenko won it though, in 2017, both semis went the distance to three sets – and this year’s competition has turned out to be even more of a wild ride than that one.

Looking at the Set Betting prices, and with the ‘wild ride’ in mind, I’m playing for the three-set underdog scenario here. While the match favourites Pavlyuchenkova & Sakkari to both win 2-0 pays just 9/2 (5.5). The underdogs Zidansek & Krejcikova to both win 2-1 comes out at 29/1

Ones to Watch

French Open – Women’s Semi Finals

  • Krejcikova v Sakkari. Most Double Faults: Krejcikova is 6/4 with Marathonbet, 7/5 10Bet, 11/8 Bet365, Sportingbet, Bwin
  • DOUBLE. Set Betting: Zidansek to win 2-1 & Krejcikova to win 2-1 is 29/1 with Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor

Play starts from 2pm, live on ITV4 and Eurosport.

I’ll be back with your Day 13 email on Friday morning.

We’ve got two women in action on the grass this week. WTA Birmingham picks Donna Vekic (10/1) and Caty McNally (20/1) are both looking to reach the quarter finals today.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch