Tennis Betting Advice - June 2021

The view from my window...

Monday 21st June 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • Rain stops play…
  • Price Watch: 2021 grass-court season…
  • 100/1+ record catches the eye…

There are four tournaments on the ATP & WTA tours this week – as well as the Qualifying rounds for Wimbledon. But as I write to you this wet Monday afternoon, there’s not much tennis going on…

Rain stops play – but things are looking up…

The rain is rolling down my window. ATP & WTA Eastbourne are yet to get on court today. And the covers are also on at the Wimbledon Qualifiers in Roehampton.

In Germany and Spain, there is some action taking place. With WTA Bad Homburg and ATP Mallorca this week’s European contribution to the grass-court campaign.

The week before a Grand Slam is a tricky one at the best of times. With the big names concentrating on next week’s trip to SW19, the smaller-scale ATP & WTA tournaments can be a breeding ground for newcomers and/ or big prices. But with a clutch of player withdrawals, and now the awful weather, too. This week’s competitions might not get much business from us.

This time next week, Wimbledon will be underway. And the weather forecast for 28th June looks much better than this week…

You & I will be going daily at Wimbledon. Bright & early every morning, I’ll be in your inbox with a dedicated Ones to Watch email. Starting from Monday, 28th June.

Price Watch: 100/1 record catches the eye…

As we noted at the French Open last week, players are frequently winning Major titles at massive prices. And it’s the same story on the weekly tours…

Here's the 2021 grass-court calendar – and in brackets, the prices of all the finalists on the turf, so far this month:

WTA 250 - BirminghamViking Classic
Winner: O.Jabeur (13/2)
Runner-up: D.Kasatkina (8/1)

WTA 500 - BerlinBett10 Open
Winner: L.Samsonova (250/1)
Runner-up: B.Bencic (22/1)

ATP 500 - London - Queen's - Cinch Championships
Winner: M.Berrettini (5/1)
Runner-up: C.Norrie (33/1)

14th ATP 500 - HalleNoventi Open
Winner: U.Humbert (33/1)
Runner-up: A.Rublev (7/1)

ATP 250 - StuttgartMercedes Cup
Winner: M.Cilic (8/1)
Runner-up: F.Auger-Aliassime (7/1)

WTA 250 - Nottingham - Viking Open
Winner: J.Konta (6/1)
Runner-up: Shuai Zhang (33/1)

On that list of champions so far this June, Ons Jabeur and Ludmilla Samsonova have both celebrated maiden WTA titles. The latter at truly gigantic odds, with the 22-year-old Russian, Samsonova coming through the qualifying rounds in Berlin, and going all the way at 250/1.

That triple-figure price contributes to the overall 2021 season-to-date figures that I keep. With that result being the 12th such 100/1+ tournament finalist recorded so far this year:

  • 50/1+ finalists: 20 out of 60 tournaments = 33% 
  • 100/1+ finalists: 12 out of 60 tournaments = 20%

That 50/1+ number is in line with the five-year average, which I calculated at the end of 2020, showing 31% of tournaments with a 50/1+ finalist.

And the current figure for 100/1+ finalists is nice & high, at 20%. Compared to a 12% average from 2016 – 2020…

Expect the mayhem to continue…

You could argue that those high 100/1+ numbers mean 2021 is due a correction, and the triple-figure mayhem will slow down. But after what we saw at the French Open earlier this month, I’m not so sure…

The women’s Roland Garros final was contested by players at two massive pre-tournament prices:

Winner: B.Krejcikova (175/1)
Runner-up: A.Pavlyuchenkova (150/1)

The last time we saw a real whopper in the Ladies final at Wimbledon was Garbine Muguruza at 80/1. That was back in 2015. Given some of the carnage that’s gone on elsewhere since then, I’d say we’re due the next big-odds surprise down at SW19…

Lots to look forward to, just as soon as the rain stops. I’ll be back later in the week with more, as we get ready for the return of Wimbledon….

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch