Tennis Betting Advice - June 2021
French Open: Day 10 – and the Stuttgart weather…
Tuesday 8th June 2021
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to Day 10 of your French Open 2021 daily service….
Finding the future…
This season’s Ones to Watch report is once again proving a useful tool for finding new contenders for the Grand Slams. And at big prices, too…
At the Australian Open in February, Jennifer Brady (33/1) reached a maiden Grand Slam final.
This week in Paris, teenager Coco Gauff is through to her first Major quarter final. On day one of Roland Garros last week, the 17-year-old was top prices of 40/1 and 33/1, and 25/1 in general.
Another teenager on that Ones to Watch in 2021 list is Jannik Sinner. The 19-year-old Italian has reached two finals on the ATP Tour this season. His latest Grand Slam came to an end yesterday though, beaten in straight sets in the 4th round by the extraordinary 35-year-old, Rafael Nadal.
Iga Swiatek was big star from our 2020 report. I gave her a mention again in this year’s list, but noted that the big odds were now gone. The 20-year-old has now won a remarkable 11 matches in a row at the French Open (2020 & 2021 combined) – without dropping a single set. Last year we got 100/1. This time, Swiatek went off as the 11/4 (3.75) favourite. She’s now the only former Grand Slam finalist left in the women’s draw, and odds-on for title number two, at 8/11 (1.73).
The 18-year-old Marta Kostyuk was this year’s 100/1 French Open youngster for us. The Ukrainian had an impressive tournament, reaching the 4th round, and beating former champion Garbine Muguruza along the way. As one commentator noted yesterday, if Marta was facing anyone else left in the draw other than Swiatek last night, then she may well have progressed through to her first Grand Slam quarter final. Kostyuk will be back though. And we’ll get plenty more opportunities to back her at big prices.
Another teenager who is most definitely one to watch is Lorenzo Musetti, who took world no.1 Novak Djokovic to a final set yesterday, before retiring injured. The 19-year-old impressed everyone with his scintillating shot-making. He’ll also be back.
The list goes on…
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is also having a breakthrough fortnight here in Paris, through to his debut Grand Slam quarter final. He’s a 6/1 underdog v Alexander Zverev today. The 22-year-old Spaniard was as big as 800/1 and 500/1 at the start of the tournament. With eight men left in the draw, he’s still the 125/1 rank outsider today.
And last but certainly not least…
Elena Rybakina is yet another youngster through to a first career Grand Slam quarter final this week. The 21-year-old Russian-born Kazakhstan representative has been immaculate so far, winning all four matches in straight sets, 2-0. Including a statement victory over Serena Williams in the Last 16.
Rybakina was 125/1 & 100/1 at the start of the French Open. Going on the form (and calmness) that she’s displayed here so far, Elena could well end up being this year’s big-odds outsider to go all the way to the Paris final. That Outright Winner price is now down to just 11/1 and 10/1. With bookies reducing their Each Way terms from the standard 1/2 odds 1-2 places, to 1/3 odds for reaching the final.
‘Youth v Experience’ today…
Elena Rybakina v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
Today’s opponent Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova was tipped for great things when she was a teenager. Having been on the tour for so long, it feels like the Russian is a ‘veteran,’ but she’s actually not yet turned 30.
Today will be Pavlyuchenkova’s seventh career Grand Slam quarter-final attempt. So far, she’s none from six at this level. If she falls again today, then the ‘nearly woman’ headlines will crop up again. In this case, I’m not sure experience really helps, as Anastasia has never won one these Major quarter finals.
Elena Rybakina is the match favourite, 8/13 (1.62) with Bet365, and 4/7 (1.57) in general.
It’s a no-bet day for me. But here’s a 2-0 Set Betting angle that I discovered in my research. Recent women’s French Open quarter finals have a habit of being settled in straight sets:
Two in the book…
Returning to the Outright Winner market, two of my recurring Ones to Watch mantras spring to mind: You can’t back them all. And it only takes one…
The above list of Ones to Watch in 2021 names shows we’re identifying plenty of promising young contenders in general. With Wimbledon and the US Open still to come this summer, not to mention stacks of weekly ATP & WTA tournaments. We’ll have many more opportunities to land on the next big breakthrough player. And that’s just this season.
Finding the future champions and the massive-odds upsets is a long-term game. That said, we’re not done here in Paris just yet…
We’ve got two French Open 2021 picks left in the hat, and they both play in the quarter finals today:
On the grass…
Alongside the bigtime Grand Slam action on clay this week, the grass-court season has also just kicked off.
At WTA Nottingham, we’ve got two women running for us:
American teenager Caty McNally (20/1) won her 1st round match in convincing fashion on Monday, 2-0.
Two-time Nottingham finalist Donna Vekic (10/1) had a Bye in the 1st round, and plays in the 2nd round today.
The men get underway at ATP Stuttgart today. That one is a watching brief at the moment. Heavy rain meant the qualifying rounds had to be moved to indoor hard courts. The forecast for Stuttgart is bad today, too (90% precipitation). Let’s see if they actually get to play on the grass…
We’ll be keeping an eye on Nottingham and Stuttgart throughout the week. As well of course as the upcoming quarter finals, semi finals & finals in Paris. And next week, the grass-court season continues, as we build up to Wimbledon at the end of the month.
See you again tomorrow morning. Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson