Tennis Betting Advice - June 2021

French Open: Day 5 – 1,000/1 cannot be ignored…

Thursday 3rd June 2021

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Day 5…
  • Price points…
  • A chance for Opelka or Medvedev…

Good morning and welcome to Day 5 of your French Open 2021 daily service.

I’ll be in your inbox every morning for the next fortnight. If you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’m on hand via email:

tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk  

Bagel allocation…

Two of yesterday’s women’s matches featured a 6-0 ‘bagel’ set. Including one for our 25/1 tournament pick, Paula Badosa. The Spaniard thrashed Danka Kovinic, 6-2, 6-0, and is now 12/1 for the title.

Aryna Sabalenka didn’t quite dish out the scoreboard punishment that I was anticipating. The Belarusian won in straight sets; an option that was just 1/3 (1.33) in the Set Betting market. Always questing for more exotic prices, I went for 6-0 and 6-1 selections for the 1st Set Score and 2nd Set Score, at standout odds of 10/1 and 9/2 respectively.

Six of the day’s 14 women’s matches would’ve turned a profit on that two-pronged attack – covering 6-0 & 6-1 scores – but not Sabalenka this time. The world no.4 won 7-5, 6-3.

Price points…

With a bit of an injury doubt hanging over world no.1 Ash Barty, Sabalenka has now been installed as the French Open second-favourite, at 5/1 at best. With Barty drifting from 4/1 to 7/1 this week.

Back in January, we got Sabalenka in the book as an early pick for this year’s US Open, at top prices of 28/1 & 25/1. Aryna is now trading at 16/1 and best and 12/1 in general for New York. It’s all about getting on the good prices like that. We never know which tournament will pay off. But in the long run, our value-hunting approach serves us well.

The biggest shock of Day 4 was Henri Laaksonen’s victory over 11th seed Roberto Bautista-Agut, with the Swiss world no.150 bucking pre-match odds of 7/1.

I always say anything can happen in tennis – and especially in the women’s game…

In terms of the in-play rollercoasters, unfortunately for us, one of our players was on the wrong end of a massive scoreboard turnover on Wednesday. Veronika Kudermetova led 5-1 in the final set v Katerina Siniakova, and had two match points. But just could not get herself over the line. Siniakova pulled off the comeback of the tournament so far, 7-6, 5-7, 7-5 in a three-hour epic. At match point down, the comeback was trading at maximum odds on Betfair.

Talking of massive odds…

1,000/1 cannot be ignored…

It was a good day for the American men yesterday – not something you often hear on clay in Paris…

For the second round in a row, giant servers John Isner and Reilly Opelka posted impressive wins. The unheralded Marcos Giron and Steve Johnson both collected underdog victories, the latter at 4/1.

In the Outright Winner market, the bookmakers are so far unfazed by the progress of those Americans. Even though they are all in the ‘softer’ half of this men’s French Open draw – eg. the opposite side to Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Roger Federer…

The 36-year-old Isner started the tournament in with the 500/1 shots, and he’s still there now. While Opelka, Giron & Johnson were all at the bottom of the list as 1,000/1 rank outsiders, and those odds haven’t budged either…

Of that four, the one I think the price is a little harsh on is Opelka. The 6’11” American was in our Ones to Watch in 2020 report – a list that did fantastically well for us last season, producing two first-time Grand Slam winners to date, 50/1 Sofia Kenin and 100/1 Iga Swiatek.

Standing as tall as he does and with an imposing physical presence, Reilly is always going to be written off by many as ‘just’ a big server. But the 23-year-old is showing that he can play some good ball, too…

Opelka reached an ATP Masters 1000 semi final on clay in Rome last month. Busting pre-tournament odds of 400/1, and only beaten by the Clay Court King himself, Rafa Nadal.

The world no.35 has followed that up by moving into the French Open 3rd round. As is the case with our 40/1 pick Daniil Medvedev, prior to this week, Opelka had never won a match at Roland Garros. With age and motivation on his side, there should be more to come from Reilly in the tournaments & seasons to come.

A chance for Opelka or Medvedev…

I’m flagging up that 1,000/1 price today, as Opelka meets our man Medvedev in the next round.

This section of the draw has potential; all the pressure is on Stefanos Tsitsipas to be the man to come through to the semis from this 4th Quarter. The bookies make the Greek 22-year-old odds-on to do that, at just 4/7 (1.57). If Stefanos stumbles, then someone can make a name for themselves here…

They’ve never met on clay or a Grand Slam, but previous meetings between Opelka and Medvedev elsewhere have always been close. The head-to-head is 2-1 to the Russian, with all three encounters going the distance to three sets.

With all that in mind, I’m putting up Opelka as a (very) speculative pick here. Odds don’t get more ‘outsider’ than 1,000/1. With 40/1 Medvedev already on board (now 33/1 and 28/1 after last night’s 2nd-round win). Adding Opelka at a gargantuan price will ensure we have a big-price player running for us in the section of the draw for a while longer yet…

  • You might also like 33/1 for Opelka in the 4th Quarter winner market. I’m happy to take the truly massive Outright option; with prices that leaves plenty of room to trade with, if we get the exciting chance to do so…

As with Marta Kostyuk yesterday, the Reach the Final market offers the best possible price combination as I write, when paired with a Win Only bet to win the tournament Outright. In this case, that’s Opelka at 750/1 to Reach the Final with Bet365, 888 Sport & VBet. And 1,000/1 on the nose in the Outright Winner betting.

Considering other firms are just 20/1 and 28/1 for Opelka to Reach the Final, that standout 750/1 might not last long. In which case, it may work out better to take the biggest Each Way price you can get instead (1/2 odds place terms for reaching the final).

Playing today…

The 2nd round continues today. In the women’s, our 100/1+ Ones to Watch picks Jessica Pegula and Marta Kostyuk are in action, along with 40/1 Karolina Muchova. In each case, the bookies make our players 3/10 (1.3) favourites to win today and progress to the 3rd round.

Ones to Watch

Men’s Outright Winner

  • Reilly Opelka is 1,000/1 with Bet365, 888 Sport, VBet, 500/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Boylesports

And:

To Reach the Final

  • Opelka to Reach the Final is 750/1 with Bet365, 888 Sport, VBet

I’ll be back tomorrow morning with your Day 6 email, when we’ll be turning our attention to the match-day markets and opportunities.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch