Tennis Betting Advice - June 2021
French Open: Day 8 – and Coco on the comeback…
Sunday 6th June 2021
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to Day 8 of your French Open 2021 daily service. I’m in your inbox every morning. If you want to get in mine, email me at:
Aiming for the quarters…
The 4th round starts today, with four matches in the men’s event, and four in the women’s. It’s the same again on Monday. After that, we’ll know the full quarter-final line-up for the French Open 2021…
After Elina Svitolina went out yesterday, there are now only three of the women’s top 10 seeds left in the competition: Iga Swiatek, Sofia Kenin, and Serena Williams.
We’ve got two women looking to make a Grand Slam breakthrough here in Paris. With Paula Badosa in our Outright Winner book at 25/1, and teenager Marta Kostyuk backed at 80/1 and 100/1+. Those are now trading at 10/1 and 50/1 respectively.
In the men’s, we’re on Daniil Medvedev at 40/1. He’s now 25/1. Medvedev takes on Cristian Garin today, with a place in the quarter finals at stake…
Paris credentials to be put to the test…
Badosa also plays today – and it’s a tricky one. The 23-year-old Spaniard takes on our 40/1 French Open finalist from 2019, Marketa Vondrousova. The 21-year-old Czech is a bit of an enigma, as I’ve said before. She plays a crafty, quietly menacing game, full of deep looping forehands, smart angles, and drop-shots. Lots of drop-shots.
After giving us a runner-up payout in 2019, we had Vondrousova in the book for Roland Garros in 2020, too (at 33/1 & 28/1). In hindsight, she was unfortunate to run into our 100/1 teenager, Iga Swiatek, in the very 1st round. That defeat doesn’t look so bad now…
Going back to the start of the 2019 tournament, and totting-up Marketa’s matches here at Roland Garros from then until now. She’s won nine of her last 11 matches at this venue. With the only defeats coming against the last two French Open champions, Ash Barty in 2019, and Swiatek in 2020.
A pair of 1st-round defeats at Madrid and Rome in the run-up to this year’s French Open did little to suggest Vondrousova was about to unleash another big Paris performance. But she’s through to the 4th round, and taking on a lower-ranked opponent in Badosa.
I’ve presented that case for the Czech left-hander, should you wish to cover your Badosa stakes with any ‘saver-bet’ activity today. Badosa is the 4/6 (1.67) favourite to win the match, with Vondrousova at 5/4 (2.25).
In the Outright market, Marketa is 20/1 in general. I’m not too keen on that price though, as, given the way she froze in that 2019 final, there’s a real danger that the occasion could get to her again, should she face a big name in the semis or the final next week.
Badosa remains my player here. The Spaniard is having a breakthrough season on the clay. Paula has won eight matches in a row, and 12 of her last 13. During that run, she’s collected a maiden WTA title. With the only loss in that run coming against world no.1, Barty.
Nerves will play some part in proceedings today. But after saving a match point in the last round, Paula can draw on a pool of inner belief. Hold on tight though; this one could get a bit tense.
Grass-court season starts today…
The coronavirus pandemic still casts a shadow over everything, and that includes the tennis calendar. After last summer, I’m just grateful to have the tennis back. We didn’t get a grass season at all in 2020, with all the events cancelled. The glorious green courts will be making a return this month, with a three-week grass-court campaign before we make the big return to Wimbledon…
The crammed-in calendar means the turf action starts this coming week, with two tournaments running alongside the French Open (usually, the ATP & WTA Tours wouldn’t play during a Grand Slam).
Coco on the comeback…
WTA Nottingham kicks things off today. The bookies have been slow pricing up their Outright markets, but we may get a chance to grab a price or two in the next few days. There’s one match bet I like today, and that’s Coco Vandeweghe to win 2-1 v Oceane Dodin…
Coco loves the grass. Its suits her big serve. She likes to keep points short, and this surface plays to her strengths – hitting the ball with pace and power.
The American has had a torrid time with injuries over the last few years. A former top 10 player, Vandeweghe is currently residing at a lowly #224 in the world rankings. Before all the problems began, Coco was becoming a real threat at Grand Slams. She made the Wimbledon quarter finals in both 2015 and 2017. As well as semi finals at the Australian Open and US Open in that time.
Age 29, Coco is still working on getting back to the top. She will be glad to see the grass-court events back on the calendar, boasting a 69% career match win rate on the turf. Both of her WTA titles have come at grass tournaments.
Vandeweghe came through WTA Nottingham qualifying with a 1-6, 6-3, 6-2 win yesterday. That can serve as a decent pipe-opener ahead of today’s 1st round match.
Opponent, Oceane Dodin, comes here direct from the French Open, where she went out in the 1st round in three sets to another big-hitting American, Madison Keys, 6-3, 3-6, 6-1.
The 24-year-old Frenchwoman can play extremely well in spells, but her level often drops off badly during matches, with unforced errors and double faults creeping in. Dodin is a modest 14-14 on grass in her career. As discussed, there’s no 2020 form. But last time Oceane was playing on the turf, in summer 2019, three of her four ‘most recent’ matches went the distance to three sets.
In the betting for this afternoon’s match in Nottingham, the bookmakers have Coco as a slight favourite, at 4/5 (1.8). Rather than bet at odds-on, I’m sticking with my 2-1 Set Betting tactic for match-ups like this…
Vandeweghe is lower-ranked and a bit rusty, but the superior player on grass. Dodin is younger and capable of some good stuff, but also unreliable, and less comfortable on the turf. To me, that’s a recipe for a 2-1 Coco win.
Compared to the match win at 4/5 (1.8), the 2-1 Set Betting score pays 7/2 (4.5) and 10/3 (4.33).
Ones to Watch
WTA Nottingham – Viking Open
Match scheduled for 2pm. The BBC is showing the Nottingham event on the iPlayer.
I’ll be back on Monday morning with your Day 9 French Open email. We’ll also be keeping a check on the grass-court action this coming week, too. As well as the women in Nottingham, there’s also a men’s event coming up in Stuttgart. And a lower-tier men’s Challenger event at the Nottingham venue, too.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson