Tennis Betting Advice - June 2022

WIMBLEDON Prep - Part I: The case for the outsiders...

Wednesday 22nd June 2022

I said it was going to be a busy week. This is your second dose of me in your inbox today…

Tomorrow, we’ll be looking at which players are showing the best grass-court form, heading into Wimbledon next week.

This afternoon, I’m sharing with you my latest Wimbledon & Grand Slam Outright Winners research…

WIMBLEDON Prep – Part I:

The case for the outsiders…

Wimbledon is on the way, and the weather forecast is good…

Lots to look forward to with the annual SW19 grass court Grand Slam just days away.

And to add some more excitement to the mix – how about the prospect of landing a huge-odds Each Way payout at the All England Club…
28/1, 50/1, 100/1…

Recent Grand Slams have produced some massive prices.

Ones to Watch in 2022 teenager Coco Gauff was a 28/1 runner-up at the French Open earlier this month.

And at the Australian Open, 100/1 finalist Danielle Collins – who we backed mid-tournament at 50/1 Each Way – was just the latest in a long line of big-odds outsiders. Rewarding backers prepared to think outside the box at the Major tournaments. Especially in the women’s game…

Just look at these Women’s stats…

  • The last 10 Wimbledon Women’s titles have been won by 7 different players

Maiden winners – since 2015:

  • 14 of the last 26 Women’s Grand Slams have been won by players lifting a Major trophy for the first time

Since the Australian Open 2017, when Serena Williams last won a Major title:

  • The last 21 Women's Grand Slams have produced 14 different winners

Since the start of 2020:

  • 4 of the last 9 Women’s Grand Slam winners have gone off at day-one Outright Winner prices of 50/1+. Including 3 at 100/1+
  • 7 of the last 9 Women’s Grand Slams have produced at least one finalist at odds of 33/1+. Including 6 players at 100/1+

Plenty of scope for a big-odds finalist…

If we look at recent Wimbledon history in particular. In the last few years, we’ve seen players making the finals at eye-opening prices, across both the men’s and women’s events. For example:
2021 – Women’s runner-up Karolina Pliskova was 50/1
2020 – [Didn’t play – coronavirus]
2019 – Women’s winner Simona Halep was 18/1
2018 – Men’s runner-up Kevin Anderson was 50/1
2017 – Men’s runner-up Marin Cilic was 28/1
2016 – Women’s runner-up Angelique Kerber was 25/1
2015 – Women’s runner-up Garbine Muguruza was 80/1

And if the thought of a half-the-odds Each Way payout isn’t enough for you, then it’s worth noting that underdogs really do win Outright at Grand Slam level:

2021 – Emma Raducanu won the US Open at 100/1
2021 – Barbora Krejcikova won the French Open at 175/1
2020 – Iga Swiatek won the French Open at 100/1
2020 – Sofia Kenin won the Australian Open at 50/1
2019 – Ashleigh Barty won the French Open at 22/1 
2018 – Naomi Osaka won the US Open at 50/1
2017 – Sloane Stephens won the US Open at 40/1
2017 – Jelena Ostapenko won the French Open at 100/1
2016 – Angelique Kerber won the Australian Open at 50/1
2015 – Flavia Pennetta won the US Open at 200/1

If you like the sound of landing big odds like those, then you’re in the right place. From those Grand Slam examples above, here at Ones to Watch we were on 100/1 Swiatek, 50/1 Kenin, and 40/1 Stephens. Along with 50/1 Anderson and 28/1 Cilic placed at Wimbledon. Plus, 50/1 Osaka and 100/1 Ostapenko featured in our annual ‘Ones to Watch’ list as teenagers. It’s true what they say: the early bird gets the worm...

Changing landscape in the Men’s…

A year is a long time in tennis…

This time last summer, Hubert Hurkacz was 200/1 for Wimbledon. The affable Pole went in the bet-book for us at triple-figure odds, and duly reached the semi finals. The man they call ‘Hubi’ also landed odds of 16/1 to win his Quarter of the men’s draw.

During that breakthrough 2021 run at SW19, Hurkacz beat Daniil Medvedev, who is now the world no.1. And in the quarter finals, Hubi defeated the great man himself, Roger Federer. Little did we know it at the time, but Federer hasn’t played since…

Fast-forward to today, and the men’s tennis landscape looks somewhat different. Medvedev is no.1. A now 40-year-old Federer is making tentative plans for a comeback/ farewell lap of honour next season. While Hurkacz is now a Top 10 player, and priced at just 16/1 for the Wimbledon 2022 men’s title.

  • Another example with Hurkacz there of the old mantra ringing true: the early bird gets the worm. Something we can be happy about with our 40/1 women’s 2022 pick Ons Jabeur who is great form this season, and now just 12/1 to win Wimbledon this summer… 

Already in the book at 40/1…

Back in April, I sent you Ons Jabeur as an early-bird Ones to Watch pick for this year’s trip to SW19. Flagged up as a fancied 40/1 and 33/1 outsider for the women’s title. Read the full article here.

Since then, Jabeur has played four tournaments – and reached the final in three of them, winning two. Including a second career grass-court crown, lifting the WTA Berlin Bett1 Open trophy last week. Her odds there were 7/1.

In this week’s updated standings, that Berlin triumph has helped catapult the Tunisian up to a new highest ranking of no.3 in the world.

And building on the grass form that I highlighted in that original email to you on 22nd April. Jabeur’s impressive career match win-loss record on grass now reads:

Played 70
Won 54
Lost 16
Win-rate = 77%

The 27-year-old is having a great season, second only to world no.1 Iga Swiatek on the ‘Race to the WTA 2022 Finals’ leader-board.

From the top prices of 40/1 and 33/1 Each Way when I first told you about Ons Jabeur for Wimbledon in April. Today’s latest Wimbledon 2022 women’s Outright Winner market has her trading at 12/1 and 10/1.

If you got on when I emailed you in April, good work. You’re on at the best price. We’ll be looking to snag more value prices in the Wimbledon outright markets over the coming fortnight.

  • We’re also already on 22-year-old Dayana Yastremska as a 100/1 outsider. Read more on that one here

The Big Four are no more: the rise of the Next Gen…

Back to the men’s Grand Slam formbook now…

Wimbledon 2022 will be without the still-rehabilitating Federer. The absence of the eight-time winner is one of the key indicators that the decade-plus dominance of the men’s Big Four as we know it has come to an end…

Andy Murray, age 35 and with a metal hip, is still playing. But Andy hasn’t reached a Grand Slam final since Wimbledon 2016.

The other two are still seriously strong contenders, and only a fool would say otherwise. Novak Djokovic won three of the four Grand Slam trophies on offer in 2021. And Rafael Nadal has won both Majors so far in 2022.

But the fact remains, all four of those guys are now age 35 or over. And for the first time in a long time, the top of the men’s rankings doesn’t include any of those Big Four names in the Top 2.

Things get even more intriguing for next week’s big one at Wimbledon when we consider that the two guys that currently occupy the top two spots in the world rankings, won’t be there. As a Russian, Medvedev is banned by Wimbledon. And no.2 Alexander Zverev is out injured.

This combination of factors only stirs up the case for finding an outsider or two to follow at big prices over the next fortnight at SW19…

Upsets happen more than you think…

I’ve gone through all of the odds and results from recent men’s Grand Slam finals.

While it might feel like the Big Four dominate everything (and in terms of actually lifting the trophies, they still pretty much do!). As this list shows, it’s actually rare these days to see an all-Big Four final. And Next Gen names and outsiders are popping up frequently as Each Way finalists, making for some decent runner-up payouts.

Men’s Grand Slam finals since Wimbledon 2016:

Most recent first
NON-Big Four names in bold
(Odds in brackets)

French Open 2022
Rafael Nadal (4/1) beat Casper Ruud (22/1)

Australian Open 2022
Rafael Nadal (7/1) beat Daniil Medvedev (7/5)

US Open 2021
Daniil Medvedev (4/1) beat Novak Djokovic (8/11)

Wimbledon 2021
Novak Djokovic (4/5) beat Matteo Berrettini (12/1)

French Open 2021
Novak Djokovic (5/1) beat Stefanos Tsitsipas (5/1)

Australian Open 2021
Novak Djokovic (11/8) beat Daniil Medvedev (9/2)

French Open 2020
Rafael Nadal (11/10) beat Novak Djokovic (21/10)

US Open 2020
Dominic Thiem (9/1) beat Alexander Zverev (25/1)

Wimbledon 2020
[Didn’t play – coronavirus]

Australian Open 2020
Novak Djokovic (6/5) beat Dominic Thiem (22/1)

US Open 2019
Rafael Nadal (3/1) beat Daniil Medvedev (14/1)

Wimbledon 2019
Novak Djokovic (11/8) beat Roger Federer (10/3)

French Open 2019
Rafael Nadal (10/11) beat Dominic Thiem (7/1)

Australian Open 2019
Novak Djokovic (6/5) beat Rafael Nadal (9/1)

US Open 2018
Novak Djokovic (3/1) beat Juan-Martin Del Potro (16/1)

Wimbledon 2018
Novak Djokovic (11/2) beat Kevin Anderson (50/1)

French Open 2018
Rafael Nadal (1/2) beat Dominic Thiem (10/1)

Australian Open 2018
Roger Federer (2/1) beat Marin Cilic (33/1)

US Open 2017
Rafael Nadal (11/4) beat Kevin Anderson (150/1)

Wimbledon 2017
Roger Federer (11/4) beat Marin Cilic (28/1)

French Open 2017
Rafael Nadal (5/6) beat Stan Wawrinka (14/1)

Australian Open 2017
Roger Federer (22/1) beat Rafael Nadal (16/1)

US Open 2016
Stan Wawrinka (25/1) beat Novak Djokovic (Evens)

Wimbledon 2016
Andy Murray (3/1) beat Milos Raonic (14/1)

These findings get me excited for hunting out an underdog at Wimbledon next week:

  • Only 4 of the last 23 men’s Grand Slam finals have been all-Big Four encounters. The other 19 have featured a new name/ outsider/ Next Generation player – including 8 at odds of 20/1+
  • Only one of the last 5 men’s Wimbledon finals has been an all-Big Four affair. The other 4 have featured finalists at odds of 12/1, 50/1, 28/1, 14/1

Watch this space – DAILY Wimbledon service coming very soon…

If you like the sound of backing big odds like those, then stay tuned…

I’ll be going after the outsider prices at Wimbledon next week.

Exclusive to your Ones to Watch service, I’ll be providing a full VIP package, with Outright Winner picks, match bets, and DAILY emails and analysis. Plus, I’ll be contactable by email every day to answer questions and help you out.

We’ll be kicking off with email number one on Sunday, with play starting on Monday morning.

Before that, I’ll be back tomorrow with Part II of our Wimbledon prep & research, focusing specifically on grass-court form.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch